Andrej Krivo

CEO of Flag Group | Global meat and chicken trading | Passionate about AI implementation for my team | Believer in God and freedom | DM me on X

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

@FT When a nation’s fiscal foundations crack under the weight of debt and collapsing asset markets, the government will always reach for the offshore wealth of its own ultra-rich - not as ideology, but as arithmetic.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

When a nation’s fiscal foundations crack under the weight of debt and collapsing asset markets, the government will always reach for the offshore wealth of its own ultra-rich - not as ideology, but as arithmetic.

[Financial Times @FT]

Chinese authorities have stepped up scrutiny of overseas capital gains and investments, in some cases going back as far as 2000, as Beijing seeks to fill a deepening fiscal hole by targeting the ultra rich. https://t.co/XpOEvtrH9c

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

@johnhelm2006 @ekwufinance In what other shithole

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

@telegram Rockstar will ship a polished open-world crime epic before the government ships the full paperwork on the actual open-world crime network. Peak 2026.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

Rockstar will ship a polished open-world crime epic before the government ships the full paperwork on the actual open-world crime network. Peak 2026.

[Telegram Messenger @telegram]

crazy that we're gonna get GTA 6 before the full Epstein files

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

A $125 million fine for willfully failing to monitor over $10 billion in high-risk foreign transfers is nothing more than a rounding error for a bank the size of UBS. When the same institution has already been penalized for similar failures and still treats anti-money-laundering controls as optional, the message is clear: regulators are more interested in collecting fees than in stopping the flow of dirty money. Until the penalties actually hurt and individuals face real consequences, these violations will remain just another cost of doing business.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

A $125 million fine for willfully failing to monitor over $10 billion in high-risk foreign transfers is nothing more than a rounding error for a bank the size of UBS. When the same institution has already been penalized for similar failures and still treats anti-money-laundering controls as optional, the message is clear: regulators are more interested in collecting fees than in stopping the flow of dirty money. Until the penalties actually hurt and individuals face real consequences, these violations will remain just another cost of doing business.

[Financial Times @FT]

UBS fined $125mn over lax money laundering controls https://t.co/jIzTM5Pi7v

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

The United States’ attempts to pour money into Japan and prop up the yen will not save the situation. Sooner or later Japan will begin selling its massive holdings of U.S. Treasuries - and that moment will mark the beginning of the collapse of the dollar system.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Bailing Japan out isn't an act of altruism.... It's about survival.

- Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries.
- A weaker yen raises import costs.
- Higher import costs fuel inflation.
- Higher inflation increases pressure on the BoJ to hike rates.

That leaves the BoJ with two realistic options... neither is good for the US.

1. Sell UST to support the yen.
2. Raise interest rates.

Option 1 pushes US yields higher by adding Treasury supply to the market.

Option 2 risks blowing up the yen carry trade... which also puts upward pressure on US yields.

By stepping in to support the yen through EUR sales, the US shifts part of that pressure onto Europe.

And by making the intervention public, the message is clear:

"You've seen us intervene in oil. Now we're willing to intervene in the yen."

A new front in this war has just opened... A war against the yen short sellers.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

@query70 @ekwufinance Today the USA is nothing more than a bubble backed by nothing, while China is backed by real goods! The USA has no chance of winning this war.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

@business The confrontation between AIs of different countries is beginning. The deployment of such warriors is inevitable.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

The confrontation between AIs of different countries is beginning. The deployment of such warriors is inevitable.

[Bloomberg @business]

China is growing anxious that Anthropic’s Mythos could be wielded against the world’s second-biggest economy, adding a volatile new issue to already heightened tensions before a planned summit between Xi Jinping and Trump https://t.co/WfcGpERvMX

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

Europe’s gas storages just hit an 18-year seasonal low - 57% full in early August. After years of celebrating the ‘end of Russian dependence,’ high prices driven by Middle East chaos now make filling them uneconomical. The green transition rhetoric meets cold reality: ideological energy policy has left the continent’s winter buffer dangerously thin. Winter is coming, and this time the cupboard is almost bare.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

Europe’s gas storages just hit an 18-year seasonal low - 57% full in early August. After years of celebrating the ‘end of Russian dependence,’ high prices driven by Middle East chaos now make filling them uneconomical. The green transition rhetoric meets cold reality: ideological energy policy has left the continent’s winter buffer dangerously thin. Winter is coming, and this time the cupboard is almost bare.

[Bloomberg @business]

European gas-storage levels fell to their lowest for this time of year in almost two decades https://t.co/uXDq7c3pxi

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

China is once again proving that no technological monopoly lasts forever.
While the world was still talking about ASML’s “unassailable” dominance, the Chinese quietly started mass-producing their own immersion DUV lithography machines.
This is no longer a catch-up story - it’s direct pressure on one of the most protected markets in the semiconductor industry.
China’s hardware power is growing faster than many are willing to admit.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

China is once again proving that no technological monopoly lasts forever.
While the world was still talking about ASML’s “unassailable” dominance, the Chinese quietly started mass-producing their own immersion DUV lithography machines.
This is no longer a catch-up story - it’s direct pressure on one of the most protected markets in the semiconductor industry.
China’s hardware power is growing faster than many are willing to admit.

[Financial Times @FT]

ASML’s hold over the future of chipmaking is weakening https://t.co/QJAEnocHek | opinion

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

China is trying to pop the US AI bubble.
The US is spending trillions to own the proprietary infrastructure.
China is building cheaper open-source models and inviting the world to build on top of them.
The winner of the AI race won’t necessarily be the one who owns the infrastructure -
it will be the one who builds the best companies on top of it.
Just like Amazon, Google and Microsoft after the dot-com era.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

China is trying to pop the US AI bubble.

Xi just announced China will provide 30 countries with 5,000 AI training and seminar opportunities while building international AI application cooperation centers.

China and the US have a different definition of "winning" the AI race.

The US strategy:

Spend trillions building and controlling the AI infrastructure the world will depend on through a proprietary ecosystem.

China is taking the opposite approach:

Build cheaper open-source models with similar performance and encourage the world to build on top of them.

The bet is simple:

The winner of AI will not necessarily be whoever owns the infrastructure.
.... It will be whoever builds the best companies on top of it.

Just like in the post-dot-com era...

The biggest winners were companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft that built businesses on top of open infrastructure.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

Key events this week that could move markets:
Monday, Aug 3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July is due. Consensus expects a rise to 54 from 53.3. Markets will watch closely to see if the industrial sector is stabilizing despite high rates. China also releases its official Industrial PMI for July, a critical read for oil and metals companies after the previous print slipped into contraction territory. After the close, Palantir reports earnings. Investors will be hunting for confirmation that demand for AI software remains robust following mixed signals from the largest tech names.
Tuesday, Aug 4: The US releases JOLTS job openings for June and industrial orders, the first major labor market data points ahead of Friday’s payrolls. Earnings season delivers several heavyweights: AMD (a key AI chip supplier), Caterpillar (a global industrial barometer), oil major BP, and bank HSBC. SpaceX is also scheduled to report for the first time as a public company. For commodity markets, BP’s commentary on oil demand and prices will be especially important after the recent sharp decline in crude.
Wednesday, Aug 5: The most important day for Russian investors. The Finance Ministry announces the parameters of budget rule operations for August, a direct signal whether it will buy or sell foreign currency and therefore a key driver for the ruble. On the same day the Central Bank publishes the summary of the July rate discussion meeting, offering clues about how hawkish the regulator remains ahead of the September decision. In the US, ADP employment data and the ISM Services index land (services account for roughly 70% of the economy). China releases its Services PMI and the eurozone publishes producer prices. Corporate reports include Eli Lilly and Disney.
Thursday, Aug 6: Weekly US jobless claims arrive together with Q2 productivity and unit labor cost data. A series of Fed speakers is also expected. With three FOMC members having voted for a rate hike at the last meeting, their tone will be scrutinized for signs of growing internal division.
Friday, Aug 7: The week’s climax, July Non Farm Payrolls. Stakes are high after June’s sharp disappointment (only 57k jobs versus 114k expected), even though the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%.
Bottom line: This week packs dense macro data, high profile earnings and critical signals for the ruble. Soft US labor numbers could reinforce rate cut bets, while stronger than expected PMIs or hawkish Fed speak may push yields higher. For Russian assets, the Finance Ministry’s currency operations and the CBR summary will likely set the near term tone for the ruble and rates. AI related names (AMD, Palantir) and energy (BP) remain the corporate focal points.
We’ll break down the key releases in more detail in upcoming posts.
#Markets #Economy #Fed #NFP #ISM #PMI #Ruble #Oil #AI #Earnings #AMD #Palantir #SpaceX #Caterpillar #BP #CentralBank #BudgetRule

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

Today the world faces a clear reality: countries must begin building a new economic model grounded in a multipolar order with several centers of power, rather than clinging to a unipolar model that is already cracking at the seams. The world has already tried the unipolar experiment - it has proven ineffective, and its time has come to an end.

[Andrej Krivo @flaggroup1]

Today the world faces a clear reality: countries must begin building a new economic model grounded in a multipolar order with several centers of power, rather than clinging to a unipolar model that is already cracking at the seams. The world has already tried the unipolar experiment - it has proven ineffective, and its time has come to an end.

[IMF @IMFNews]

A new era of geoeconomics is reshaping how nations pursue power, growth, and security, according to F&D editor-in-chief Gita Bhatt. https://t.co/TDEA9pIHwO