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2026 $SPX update:
The original feed was a move lower in the summer, we're seeing that shape up a lot earlier, so I want to reassess.
I haven't changed my thoughts on location, but rather the timing a little more.
These are just thoughts, trying to time bottoms in this current climate is seemingly idiotic, but I still think that there is going to be an opportunity into Q3 this year for a larger reversal to surprise many players.
The bottoming process more so a process than 1 touch rebid and moon like last year.
I've added anchored VWAPs that converge into the 6,000-6,100 where I expect a bottom out in the summer.
However to get truly oversold, there are several factors I look at. 8 of them.
The first few being breadth (not fully there yet, image below), VIX term structure (not fully there yet), credit spreads (not fully there yet), UVOL FTD (none yet)
bottoming might take some time this year with a few pump fakes below holding out.