Flowtrack

Thesis-driven fund that invests in the reserve assets and infrastructure powering the onchain (blockchain) economy.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

In back testing, as well as so far in the few months since implementing this, it has proven to exceed expectations. It has helped us to mostly avoid events like the liquidations of 10/10 as well as just general market malaise over recent months.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

Introducing ORION: Flowtrack’s Proprietary AI-Driven Digital Asset Risk Engine

Crypto is evolving into an asset class that is increasingly affected by overall macroeconomic trends. That requires a more professional risk management framework.

More on ORION below 👇

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

The goal of ORION is to smooth out the volatility of the asset class, while also taking the opportunities when market conditions are maximally favorable to go out on the risk curve.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

The above assumes no expansion in speculative premium.
Add modest rerating & it fans out fast:
• Mild hype 1.5× mult → $238
• BNB-style rerate 3× mult → $476
• SOL-style mania 4× mult → $635
Burn + growth gives you the floor; narrative sets the ceiling 📈

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

1/ What happens when you fuse a CEX-grade order book with onchain settlement? @HyperliquidX. Every taker fee generated contributes to $HYPE buybacks (97% of fees to be exact) — so volume directly feeds HYPE scarcity.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

5/ TL;DR a much bigger burn + CEX-style volumes gives HYPE far more “structural bid” than either BNB or SOL had during their historic runs in 2021…

How big could the HYPE move be if fees triple?
Base fundamentals (3× rev, 5.5% float burn) pencil out to ~$159 from $50 (~3.2×).

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

The only meaningful Gold rally in Bitcoin's history came from 2019-2020, also about 70% at the time. There was a lag, but BTC eventually caught up with gold. While it is difficult to say if there is any correlation, perhaps BTC is preparing to catch up to gold once again.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

Chart of the day - Since the US Presidential election in November 2024, BTC had been pretty correlated with US equities, until recently that is.

About two weeks ago, BTC decoupled from equity indices and has now mimicked gold since. This is a welcome development.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

Gold has been on a proper tear as of late, now up ~70% since the beginning of 2024. More recently, it has rallied very aggressively as President Trump's tariffs have sent ripples through the global economy and created the uncertainty needed for a "flight to safety" asset.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

As the macro picture clears over the coming months, the improved fundamentals and deregulation of the crypto industry are likely to lead prices to catch back up with fundamentals.

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

Crypto is currently in an odd predicament - one in which fundamentals and regulatory clarity for the industry have never been better, but prices are diverging from that reality. This is likely to be a temporary divergence. Let's unpack it👇

[Flowtrack @flowtrackfund]

All that to say, the drawdown across the board in crypto is likely more of a function of macro rather than fundamentals. The industry is set up to thrive for many years, with positive developments like a stablecoin bill, less pressure from the SEC, and a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve