Football Meets Data

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[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

Our 📽️ recap of the week:

🇹🇷 Galatasaray came from 2-1 down to win 4-2 in 🇫🇷 Lille and nearly doubled their Top 24 chance
🇦🇹 LASK stun 🇵🇹 Sporting in Lisbon with their first ever UCL win
🇳🇱 PSV win in 🇵🇹 Porto, 🇮🇹 Como beat 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man Utd 4-1
🇵🇹 Porto, 🇫🇷 Lille and 🇸🇰 Slovan the only teams still without a point
🇫🇷 PSG overtake 🇪🇸 Barcelona as our favourites to win it

🧮 Plus the projected table, the projected bracket and 🇩🇪 Bayern v Arsenal 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 goal by goal on our live dashboard

▶️ Full video on our YouTube channel, give us a follow:
https://t.co/mJUFSbmv78

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

@NemesiGreca How much? 🙂

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🇮🇹 AS Roma has guaranteed at least €53.1m of 💰 UEFA prize money this season, worst case scenario.

€41.4m of that amount has already been paid out in September 2026.

Next payment comes on 20 November, and will include the match bonuses for points won in MD1-4. It will be at least €2.8m, and could climb to €4.9m if they win in MD4.

In our single-outcome model 🇮🇹 Roma ends with 13 pts and finishes 13th in league stage. If it happens, it would bring them:

▪️€6.3m more from match bonuses (9 more pts)
▪️€6.7m from league ranking shares for 13th place
▪️€1m bonus for finishing between 9-16
▪️€1m bonus for entering KO playoff round

And then if they win that round and enter into R16, which we do project, it would bring them additional +€11m.

In June 2027 they will get the remaining 25% of the Value Pillar which is fixed €7.86m.

In October 2027 the starting fee residual of €0.75m is paid out.

Overall they'd get €78.9m.

The average amount they get in our sims is €70.7m.

90% of outcomes finish between €56.3m and €97.7m on the season level.

👉 Full details on cash flow and prize money projections for ALL 237 teams available in our Prize Money Lab at https://t.co/IrZ2l6zucj

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

@Sportjunkie18 Very likely so.

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb plays one of the key matches for their 🟠 Top 24 race today v 🇳🇱 NEC Nijmegen.

A win lifts them above 80%, a loss drops them below 50%. A draw hurts them as well given the schedule they have until the end.

❓ But what other results they should root for to increase their chances?

➕ Biggest positive effect if:
🇫🇷 Lyon win
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Sunderland win
draw in 🇨🇿 Viktoria v 🇧🇬 Levski
🇬🇷 Olympiacos win
...

➖ Biggest negative effect if:
🇬🇷 OFI Crete win
🇵🇱 Lech win
🇵🇹 Torreense win
🇩🇪 Hoffenheim win
🇨🇿 Sparta win
🇨🇾 Omonia win
...

👉 Full team-level details on who needs what available in our app at https://t.co/nxqFFppnC4

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

Top 5 🟢 Conference League games for the Top 8 race today 🔍

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 Monaco v Freiburg 🇩🇪: two teams on about 56%, the winner goes to about 79%. A draw leaves both near 50%
2️⃣ 🇵🇹 Braga v Gent 🇧🇪: Gent 74% with a win in Braga, 33% with a defeat. Braga 6% with a defeat
3️⃣ 🇪🇸 Getafe v Lugano 🇨🇭: a Lugano win in Getafe takes them from 37% to 64%
4️⃣ 🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda v FC Copenhagen 🇩🇰: Copenhagen 88% with a win in Belgrade. Crvena Zvezda 38% with a win, 6% with a defeat
5️⃣ 🇩🇰 Midtjylland v STVV 🇧🇪: a STVV win in Herning doubles their chance, 24% ➡️ 49%

🇳🇱 Ajax v Atalanta 🇮🇹? Only 11th

Which result should your team root for? It's in our app 📲 https://t.co/nxqFFppnC4

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

Top 5 🟠 Europa League games for the Top 8 race tonight 🔍

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿: Beşiktaş 76% with a win, 39% with a defeat. A Palace win in Istanbul takes them from 25% to 46%
2️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bournemouth v Milan 🇮🇹: Milan 71% with a win, 31% with a defeat. Bournemouth 87% with a win
3️⃣ 🇵🇱 Lech Poznań v Sunderland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿: all about Sunderland, 75% with a win in Poznań, 38% with a defeat
4️⃣ 🇬🇷 Olympiacos v Sparta Prague 🇨🇿: Olympiacos 69% with a win, 32% with a defeat. A Sparta win more than doubles their chance, 10% ➡️ 24%
5️⃣ 🇩🇪 Hoffenheim v Lyon 🇫🇷: Lyon 78% with a win, 43% with a defeat

Which result should your team root for? It's in our app 📲 https://t.co/nxqFFppnC4

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

After MD3, 🇧🇦 Ermedin Demirović still leads the Goalscorer rankings in 🔵UCL.

Minutes played are the first tie-breaker in UEFA competitions, and Demirović scored 4 goals in only 90 minutes on the pitch!

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

@AginglikeIvan No, PSG winning it also pushes the line down. Any team winning it that is currently ranked above PSV pushes the line down.

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🇧🇪 Club Brugge make another step towards the 🌐 2029 Club World Cup, extending their lead over 🇮🇹 Atalanta to 6 pts!

But given that it's very likely that the next two European champions will be the teams ranked above them, the qualification line will go further two places down.

As of current standings, it would include 🇮🇹 Atalanta and 🇳🇱 PSV!

🇳🇱 PSV also with important 3 pts this week.

❌ Currently outside CWC positions due to country cap:

🇪🇸 Atlético Madrid
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester City
🇩🇪 Leverkusen
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa

👉 Full details on Club World Cup 2029 in our app on https://t.co/nxqFFppnC4

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🇵🇹 Sporting CP is starting to have traumatic experiences with 🇦🇹 LASK.

Back in 2020, during the COVID pandemic, the qualifying rounds (except for UCL PO) were played as single-leg matches behind closed doors.

🇦🇹 LASK beat 🇵🇹 Sporting CP at José Alvalade in 🟠 UEL PO and eliminated them from Europe altogether!

There was no 🟢 Conference League back then so losing in UEL PO meant the end of European season for Sporting!

This remained the only time 🇵🇹 Sporting CP played in Europe but were eliminated before group/league stage in over 20 years (since 2005).

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🏟️ Attendances 🔵 UCL MD3:

75,000 🇩🇪 Bayern v 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Arsenal
73,352 🇮🇹 Inter Milan v 🇺🇦 Shakhtar
73,016 🇪🇸 Real Madrid v 🇩🇪 RB Leipzig
67,524 🇪🇸 Real Betis v 🇳🇱 Feyenoord
64,399 🇮🇹 Roma v 🇸🇰 Slovan B.
59,610 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool v 🇪🇸 Villarreal
58,000 🇩🇪 Stuttgart v 🇪🇸 Atlético M.
48,985 🇵🇹 Sporting CP v 🇦🇹 LASK
48,935 🇵🇹 Porto v 🇳🇱 PSV Eindhoven
47,421 🇫🇷 PSG v 🇪🇸 Barcelona
47,221 🇦🇿 Sabah v 🇩🇪 B. Dortmund
44,142 🇫🇷 Lille v 🇹🇷 Galatasaray
40,124 🇹🇷 Fenerbahçe v 🇨🇿 Slavia
40,042 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester City v 🇬🇷 AEK
35,096 🇮🇹 Napoli v 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt
33,410 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa v 🇳🇴 Viking
26,023 🇧🇪 Club Brugge v 🇫🇷 Lens
10,875 🇮🇹 Como v 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester Utd

👉 Attendances and stadium fill rates for every 🔵 UCL 🟠 UEL 🟢 UECL match now available at https://t.co/luZHrGv463.

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

R16 probabilities:

99% 🇪🇸 Real Madrid
99% 🇫🇷 PSG
95% 🇪🇸 Barcelona
95% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Arsenal
92% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool
85% 🇩🇪 Bayern München
82% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester City
76% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa
73% 🇪🇸 Betis
71% 🇪🇸 Atlético Madrid
57% 🇩🇪 Stuttgart
55% 🇧🇪 Club Brugge
54% 🇩🇪 Dortmund
53% 🇮🇹 Inter
51% 🇮🇹 Como
48% 🇪🇸 Villarreal
46% 🇮🇹 Roma
42% 🇩🇪 RB Leipzig
41% 🇮🇹 Napoli
40% 🇵🇹 Sporting CP
39% 🇳🇱 PSV Eindhoven
38% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester Utd
27% 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt
26% 🇹🇷 Galatasaray
25% 🇳🇱 Feyenoord
15% 🇺🇦 Shakhtar
15% 🇵🇹 Porto
15% 🇫🇷 Lens
14% 🇹🇷 Fenerbahçe
8% 🇫🇷 Lille
7% 🇬🇷 AEK
6% 🇳🇴 Viking
5% 🇦🇹 LASK
4% 🇨🇿 Slavia Prague
2% 🇦🇿 Sabah FK
1% 🇸🇰 Slovan Bratislava

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

[🔵 UEFA Champions League]

🏆 Winner probabilities:

22% 🇫🇷 PSG
17% 🇪🇸 Barcelona
15% 🇪🇸 Real Madrid
11% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Arsenal
9% 🇩🇪 Bayern München
6% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester City
5% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool
4% 🇪🇸 Atlético Madrid
2% 🇮🇹 Inter
1% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa
1% 🇪🇸 Betis
1% 🇪🇸 Villarreal
1% 🇩🇪 RB Leipzig
1% 🇮🇹 Roma
1% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Manchester Utd
1% 🇧🇪 Club Brugge
1% 🇮🇹 Como
1% 🇩🇪 Dortmund
1% 🇮🇹 Napoli
1% 🇩🇪 Stuttgart

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available in our Simulator

🚨 Updated after every round!

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

Projected 🔵 UCL knockout bracket after MD3.

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🇪🇸 Spain boosts their chances of getting an extra 🔵 UCL slot with 2 wins tonight, one of them vs a direct competitor 🇩🇪 Germany!

🇮🇹 Italy climbs further and is now equal with 🇩🇪 Germany on 22.8%!

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

@ovuncozkan That is not unsual in cases when >50% of spots lead to the next round.

To be more precise, 24/36 = 67% of spots lead to KO stage, so no surprise that there are teams with >50% below the line.

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🔵 UCL projections after MD3, with teams ordered on average final positions in our simulations

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

After last week's disaster, 🇮🇹 Italy needed this real bad!

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

📈 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool and 🇪🇸 Betis are the biggest winners of the week in the Top 8 race!

📉 🇵🇹 Sporting CP with by far the biggest decline of chances, and it's not even close.

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

📈 🇹🇷 Galatasaray and 🇳🇱 PSV the absolute winners of the week in the 🔵 Top 24 race!

📈 🇮🇹 Como and 🇦🇹 LASK add >20% as well!

📉 🇵🇹 Porto and 🇫🇷 Lille with the biggest weekly decline.