$SPY $QQQ
Per @cramer, every current bearish signal is “baked into” the market. Fair. Copy that 👍
But here is a list of five very possible news drops (unknown unknowns) that could crash the markets, per Grok:
1. Sudden breakdown of the US-Iran understanding / full or prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.
2. Major AI/hyperscaler capex or ROI disappointment cascade.
3. Unexpectedly aggressive Fed policy shift or inflation surprise forcing hikes.
4. Credit/systemic event or major unexpected corporate/financial failure.
5. Geopolitical black-swan escalation involving Taiwan/China or a major cyber/infrastructure attack.
None will probably happen, right? right?? 😅
Military aircraft flying above a population that can’t afford housing, healthcare, or groceries. These flyovers don’t represent freedom. They represent a decrepit capitalist empire that murders children abroad and oppresses its own people at home all to make the rich even richer.
Historic intervention is coming.
Despite several announcements by the US Treasury about imminent intervention, yields still won't fall.
This includings doubling buybacks to $4+ billion per operation and the Treasury considering using its $950 billion General Account for these purchases.
Reports now state that US Treasury Bessent "will do whatever it takes" to lower yields.
In addition to buybacks, this could include selling short-term debt, possible elimination of long-dated bonds, and more.
Meanwhile, on Friday night, President Trump even said that he could use the US Military to lower yields, though it is unclear exactly how he would do so.
The reality is that the Fed cannot cut rates in this environment and the Trump Administration knows this.
So, direct bond market intervention is the only solution to drive interest rates and yields lower over the short-run.
Our view? Don't fight the Treasury.
The US Treasury Has Now:
1. Announced that Treasury buybacks would double from $2 billion to $4 billion
2. Announced that Treasury buybacks could "more than double"
3. Considered using its $950 billion General Account for these purchases
Meanwhile, the 10Y Note Yield is still ABOVE levels seen prior to their initial announcement on August 19th.
This is going to be a long battle.