Folded Throne Capital

(mostly) micro-mid cap stocks

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@SavneetS @DingbatCapital @WeatherPundit @sevencornerscap @SavneetS can shareholders expect some type of guidance or even a rough ballpark around probabilities for each one? Or will it be a black box until the deal is announced / failed?

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@celtics1844 @GreenhavenRoad They staked their entire business on 3 Tier 1 RFPs then proceeded to tell their investors absolutely nothing about those 3

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@rsosa8 The strategy of shutting down your business to focus on Tier 1 RFPs then giving the market 0 visibility on said RFPs is interesting

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@EarningsB4Hugs I don't love them dragging out this REIT thing and giving no info. Happy to hold bc of the underlying business being strong

[Alexander Pack @alpackaP]

everyone is freaking out over the Citrini piece about AI killing capitalism.

incredibly, it makes the exact same mistake that Marx, the OG doommaxer, made when he said that machines would kill capitalism... in 1867.

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@TrentBlair19 Price was a bit lower than what i was hoping for but happy to see them winding down

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@AndrewTakes I made a nice ~2.5x on the stock so no complaints there but I got a bit nervous when they progressively began disclosing less and less each quarter. Their investor day was useless for real metrics

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

$GENI I sold a couple months ago but they just bought Legend for up to $1.2B. I really don't like this deal. It was done at ~8x EBITDA which is great for a 50% EBITDA margin co. but the actual business is low-quality and overexposes Genius to sportsbook ad spend

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@AndrewTakes Yep similar idea. Just a shit business model which is a clear loser as sports betting matures

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@educated_rube @AggieCapitalist Hope was that $GENI would move away from sportsbook advertising (which is at a cyclical high as many states just legalized), not become more exposed

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@educated_rube @AggieCapitalist Forget the financials - the underlying company isn't high quality. It basically runs online SEO websites to compare odds. This is an awful market and is long term slow/no growth. It also has a ton of regulatory risk around potential limitations on sportsbook advertising.

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

Legend basically run SEO sites for comparing odds across sportsbooks and publishing gambling-related articles. imo that business sucks and is low-to-no growth long-term with very high regulatory risk around limiting spend on gambling ads

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@jonrice80 @Aggie_CIO I thought one of those remaining 2 tier 1 RFPs was new and came after Papa John’s?

In which case Papa Johns would likely be the one under development right?

Maybe i misunderstood

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

Does anyone know if Papa John's was the Tier 1 RFP that was 'in development' for $PAR? If not, it makes 0 sense why this stock is so cheap

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@Aggie_CIO Mae’s sense - was definitely hoping for more than $15m ARR from the tier 1 in development but oh well 🙃

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@Kelvin_Sbh5 @Aggie_CIO Sydney hiring is very very interesting…

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

$FLG Q4 earnings next week. Hoping to see GAAP EPS positive, with significantly lower deposit costs and strong/growing C&I pipeline. It should be the low point in their balance sheet size.

Hopefully management gives some guidance around when NIB will begin to pick up again.

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

Happened a while back, but $NFI.TO announced a huge settlement where the battery maker paid for 80% of the $230m recall. They then announced a CEO transition. Hopefully the new CEO will start producing at a higher rate to churn through this backlog

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

$FLG trading at 0.5x book despite the fact that they are holding loans at extremely conservative valuations, have built out a massive C&I team, and should be able to pay down high-cost deposits in the coming quarters?

>$2 EPS by 2027 is very possible. Current share price is $12

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

@Long_only_guy Agree. My worry here is that a McDonald's win forces them to further slow rollout on some of these smaller guys

[Folded Throne Capital @FoldedThroneCap]

Between $PAR's 3 Tier 1 RFPs, there is ~$150m of incremental ARR (~$100m of that is from McDonald's). The company right now has $300m ARR.

Management says that they are close to closing 2 of these 3. That could be 10% revenue growth uplift for 3 years...