This is my first post, and I'd like to explain what I'm doing here.
I'm an ordinary student who's just starting to understand crypto and decided Twitter is the best place to learn.
As far as I know, due to the bad market, the only good activity right now is predictive markets and perpdex (which I'm not particularly good at), and I saw an opportunity to develop in x.
I'll continue to grow and immerse myself in this field.
BTC is hovering around $67,000. The market is heading for the holidays. A good time to figure things out
Liberation Day + Drift hack:
Trump announced reciprocal tariffs for 50+ countries. Historically, Liberation Day 2025 dropped BTC below $82,000, but after a pause, it rebounded sharply. The 2026 scenario is similar
On April 1, the first day of Q2, the largest DeFi hack of 2026 occurred: Drift Protocol on Solana lost $285 million. The hacker gained access with $500 using an admin key and oracle manipulation
CLARITY Act - April Decides Everything
The Senate vote is expected in the second half of April. If it doesn't pass by June, it will be postponed until after the November elections. Polymarket gives a 72% chance of passing in 2026
If it passes: XRP, Sol, ADA, and DOGE will be granted commodity status. Exchanges will gain legal clarity. Institutions will enter without hesitation
If not, the status quo. The sector remains in legal limbo
$100M+ unlocks this week. What's in store for the market?
April 1st - today:
SUI: $47.5 million (0.53% supply)
TIA (Celestia): $52.6 million (17.2% supply) high risk
XRP: up to 1 billion tokens according to Ripple's planned escrow, most will be returned
April 2nd:
EDGE: $16.6 million (13.8% supply) highest percentage of the week
ENA (Ethena): $8.8 million (0.63% supply)
April 5th:
Wormhole (W): $90 million (6% supply)
BTC fell from $72,000 to $65,000 in a week. The reason isn't crypto, but geopolitics
What's happening:
US-Iran tensions -> oil above $100 -> inflation rising -> Fed not cutting rates -> risk assets under pressure
Two scenarios according to analysts:
If the conflict escalates:
-BTC could fall to $60,000
-Oil above $100 is slowing the economy
-Fed continues tight policy
If tensions subside:
-BTC returns above $70,000
-Inflation pressure is easing
-Rates could go lower
Key divergence:
Retail investors are panicking and hedging
Institutional investors are buying
$1.13 billion entered the spot BTC ETF in a month - the first positive inflow in four months. Strategy is accumulating. Morgan Stanley is preparing its own ETF
@gluk64 The clash between crypto-native and enterprise-friendly approaches to on-chain infrastructure will determine which path institutional players choose