elm

ashes to ashes, dust to dust

[elm @formerlyelm]

semi-regular update:
>yama no susume
>kobayashi maidragon
>medalist

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

Operational objectives of Epic Fury:

- Eliminate the nuclear program. Now he says maybe they can enrich some uranium and the HEU ("nuclear dust") can stay put for a while because it's "not very valuable."

- Eliminate Iran's patronage of terrorist proxies. Now he certifies Tehran's control of Hezbollah by twinning a ceasefire in Lebanon with one in Iran.

- Eliminate the Iranian Navy: OK, they got one.

- Eliminate the Iranian missile program:

[いくら @ikura501ko]

#上伊那ぼたん

[elm @formerlyelm]

@LudwigNverMises There are no "moderates"
Even the current Iranian missile capability, after US attacks on their launch sites and manufacturing, is sufficient to halt transport through the straits and deter USN escorts. Stated objective of the war was to eliminate them https://t.co/BXK3m2qir9

[Jonah Goldberg @JonahDispatch]

"The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles"

"...the purpose of this is to destroy that missile capability."

"our mission and our focus is the destruction of their ballistic missile capabilities"

"the objective of this mission is the destruction of their ballistic missile capabilities"

"I’m telling you what the objectives of this operation are.  The objectives of this operation are to destroy their ballistic missile capability and make sure they can’t rebuild it, and make sure that they can’t hide behind that to have a nuclear program.  That’s the objective of the mission."
-- Marco Rubio, 3/2/26

https://t.co/yNCUakGrmx

[David Reaboi, Late Republic Nonsense @davereaboi]

For the idiots out there (and looks like there are many): if he had any intention of “bombing the hell out of Iran,” he wouldn’t have agreed to an MOU with those terms. Think, dummies.

[elm @formerlyelm]

@davereaboi I interpreted this as if the final deal to terminate sanctions couldn't be reached in 60 days, the waivers would also expire, but reading back it might not be the case?

[Thea-shama 🐟🐣 @Thea_shama]

The lost page of the zoo chapters

#watatabe
#わたたべ
#わたたべ_FA
#ThisMonsterWantstoEatMe

[elm @formerlyelm]

Assuming no deal gets signed in 60 days

Iran gets:
>Ability to export oil for 60 days
>However much frozen assets they can transfer/liquidate in the meantime

US gets
>Hormuz opening for 30-60 days

Hormuz will be impeded by mines but I suspect Iran would have it easier

[elm @formerlyelm]

If I'm reading this correctly, the 300bn is separate from the unfreezing Iranian accounts.

The verbiage on enrichment isn't promising, and no mention of missile capabilities.

[Cameron Arcand @cameron_arcand]

A SENIOR UNITED STATES OFFICIAL HAS READ OUT THE IRAN MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING.
@townhallcom WAS ON THE CALL:

- The United States of America, and Islamic Republic of Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
- The United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
- The United States of America, and the Islamic Republic of Iran commits to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days – extendable with mutual consent.
- Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the Naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the United States of America, further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
- Upon the signing of this, MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start in considering the needs for removing the technical and military obstacles and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be initiated within 30 days, the Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with Sultaness of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Homruz discussion with other Persian gulf [...] states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
- The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council Resolution, i.e. IAEA Board of Governor's Resolution, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, and an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal.
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with a minimum methodology to be down blending on site, under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the economical public of Iran's nuclear need, based on the satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. 
- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mission, and express their attention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
- Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
- The United States of America undertakes, but immediately upon the signing of this MOU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives and all associated services including banking, transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
- The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen, or restricted funds, and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of the MOU, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will usually agree on the procedures related to the relief of these funds during the negotiation. Such funds, whether retained in the original accounts or transferred, government may be fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementations of MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
After signing the MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
- The final deal will be endorsed by a binding [United Nations Security Council] resolution.

[elm @formerlyelm]

TLDR:
The US trades:
>Sanctions
>Blockade
>300bn and frozen funds

for:
>Hormuz opening
>Removal of existing enriched uranium

Given the status quo ante, it's basically a few hundred billions for a temporary reduction in missile capacity and enriched uranium

[elm @formerlyelm]

@christopherrufo For: https://t.co/pQx18ubz2b

[Kurt Schlichter @KurtSchlichter]

My gut (and interactions with right-leaning normals) tells me that most people are going to be fine with this deal (I want to destroy the mullahs, in case you wonder where I stand).

We hawks range from unhappy to enraged, but normal people don’t really care as much. And with oil prices down and the stock market up, this position is significantly better for Trump in the midterms. Note that the Democrats have been losing ground in the polls.

Trump may be calculating (correctly) that he could lose some support among hawks who just sit out the midterme, but most will realize they have no alternative but to keep supporting him because the Democrats are absolutely insanely evil. Any hawks he loses is going to be massively outweighed by normals he doesn’t lose by kicking this can down the road.

You can call it a cope, but I think this may be a net plus for Trump politically. I’m not sure the American people are willing to pay the price required to do what I think needs to be done, which is to annihilate our enemy.

[elm @formerlyelm]

@christopherrufo Against:

The US concedes that it needs both 1) the Straits of Hormuz open and 2) Iran to not possess nuclear weapons. Iran realised it can unilaterally deny the US at least one of the two, giving them leverage to get favourable deals in perpetuity.

[elm @formerlyelm]

@LudwigNverMises @christopherrufo Even if hypothetically the US is able and politically willing to destroy all Iranian attempts at nuclear weapons in the future, they can easily return to blocking Hormuz because the US has shown that's where it hurts.

[elm @formerlyelm]

@LudwigNverMises @christopherrufo Iranian air defence was already gone when the US bombed Fordow last year, and the deal itself doesn't weaken Iranian military capabilities (no removal/limit on missiles or scuttling of their navy).

[elm @formerlyelm]

@K_Niemietz If it actually is illegal to answer so I'd like to see evidence. The UK gov is clearly able and willing to track down random people off social media and throw them in jail, and this would busy them a bit.

[ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩 @kunley_drukpa]

Rebrand the exact same policies you have already as ‘Singapore-style’ for extra gravitas. To be fair though maybe he means ‘Singapore-style’ in the sense of stricter controls on freedom of speech

[elm @formerlyelm]

@austrosillyism to clarify, I don't think people become billionaires because of those four factors, and billionaires don't ~disproportionately benefit from government on average.

[elm @formerlyelm]

@austrosillyism States as they currently exist effectively subsidise every living person in its jurisdiction. Apart from antitrust and gov contracting, those policies are ~universal and the tax and transfer system in the US at least is very progressive, but few make billions from that.

[アニメ「響け！ユーフォニアム」公式 @anime_eupho]

🎀𝙃𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙮 𝘽𝙞𝙧𝙩𝙝𝙙𝙖𝙮🎀

本日6月17日は、
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針谷佳穂の誕生日です✨
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誕生日お祝いバナーとアイコンをプレゼント🎁
#anime_eupho

[うっきー @seraphit19]

はぴば！
みっちゃん先輩の誕生日には間に合わなかったのでご一緒していただいた。
身長差ええな
#針谷佳穂生誕祭2026

[われためがね @meganeee31]

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