Olivia
Online
fortune
@fortune696392
超级个体进化中
能力杂食动物：AI 🧠 × Web3 🔗 × 自媒体🤳
将多元可能，铸成单一系统，探索「无限复利」的终极公式。
坚定长期主义，记录无限进步
Joined October 2025
360 Following
24 Followers
124 Posts
@MindOS_Lisa 一直没弄懂 reddit 怎么用，怎么找到有效信息，可出个教程吗
@XianyuLi 国产图
@okxchinese B
我也在干远程安装，不能想砸自己招牌
@Showy005 所以跑园区去找一个一个电商公司问要不要装OpenClaw，比在线上发帖子远程安装有效
@Stanleysobest 哥，这我真要约了，大学城有家咖啡店不错，如何能让哥赏脸来
https://t.co/IDhv2USqGL
@SpinMarketco 还有吗，注册完立刻传递
Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop.
I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency)
Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money.
But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question:
1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things
2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know.
3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk.
(1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop.
(2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high.
This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk.
Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58.
Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether?
Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses".
Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability.
Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate.
Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.
https://t.co/Z0kQTx5Myk
刚读完孙割这本差不多十年前的书。
相比于说学到什么，我更想说——
这是一场精神慰藉的体验之行。
因为我个人的许多人生观念，与“孙学”十分契合。
——
我认同青春就该叛逆。
不应该做规则与制度下的顺从者。
要敢于表现自己，也要学会妥协的艺术。
——
我认为年轻人就该去大城市——
北京、上海、广州、深圳、香港。
因为城市会定义你的自信，
城市会塑造你的个性。
这些地方孕育着一个国家最多的机会，
也最能够包容年轻人的棱角与野心。
——
要去拥抱不确定性。
所谓的“稳定”，其实最不稳定。
你认为某个事物稳定，
往往只是因为你的经验和认知，
还不足以看见它暗藏的风险。
——
而在孙学里，
我也读到了一些从前未曾注意、
却极其有价值的视角：
父母与子女之间，不存在永远的“兜底关系”。
年轻人应尽早实现经济独立，
才能赢得真正的话语权与决定权。
同时，只有与父母和平相处，
维持旧家庭世界的稳定与平和，
我们才能毫无后顾地追寻自我。
——
不局限于存量思维。
去关注增量，关注增长。
也不让存量的纠缠，影响我们增量的展开。
有些书不是为了改变你，
而是为了确认你——
你原来并不孤单，
你原来早已走在自己相信的路上。
最近沉下心学了一段时间，我逐渐感受清楚我在Web3想做的
首先主线不动，我还是定位做一个套利者/投机者，同时也能成为一个builder，我会死磕链上数据投研，同时把智能合约（特别是审计判断）学透。逻辑很简单：想成为顶尖的链上专家，必须深挖链上的底层逻辑。
接下来我会利用 vibecoding 针对 Polymarket 和 DEX 赛道做些实用的工具，也会多去黑客松练练手，逼自己把代码能力提上来。
目标就是把数据和周期吃透，成为真正的链上专家。以后我会持续记录这个成长过程，做个实战派的输出者，无限进步。
#ETHPanda #Web3Bootcamp #LXDAO @ETHPanda_Org @LXDAO_Official @web3careerbuild @IntensiveCL
大部分人都听过"第一性原理" 但只有不到5%的人真的会用
为什么
因为大家学的是概念，不是思考方式
作为一名PM，斗胆解读一下“第一性原理”
马斯克造火箭的故事你可能听过100遍了 火箭=材料，材料成本=火箭价格的2% 所以SpaceX成本是传统火箭的1/10
但问题是：你又不造火箭 这个故事对你有什么用
我做产品这些年踩过最多的坑就是： 看到别人做什么火，我就跟着做 结果发现怎么优化都干不过对方
为什么 因为我在优化"别人的解法" 而不是在解决"真实的问题"
第一性原理真正的用法是这样的：
别问"别人怎么做的" 问"用户真正要的是什么"
举个例子 去年很多人做AI写作工具 卷prompt模板、卷输出速度、卷UI界面
但用第一性原理想： 用户要的真的是"AI写文章"吗
不是 用户要的是"把脑子里的想法快速变成可发布的内容"
那瓶颈在哪 不是AI不够强，是大部分人脑子里本来就没有清晰的想法 你给他再好的工具也写不出来
所以真正的切入点应该是： 帮用户理清思路 → 然后再用AI扩写
这就是第一性原理 不是优化行业标准答案 是回到问题本质，重新定义解法
具体怎么做
3个问题框架：
1.这个需求的本质是什么 （别人说要A，但他真正要的可能是B）
2.现有解法为什么成本高/效率低 （是技术限制还是路径依赖）
3.如果从0开始设计，最简单的方案是什么 （把所有"理所当然"的假设都扔掉）
当你开始这样思考 你会发现很多赛道根本不值得进 因为大家都在卷一个伪需求
也会发现一些看起来没人做的方向 其实才是真正的机会
第一性原理不是让你学马斯克 是让你找到属于你自己的那2%
耗时一周死磕Uniswap V2，终于把所有知识点整理成总结，已发GitHub啦！🎉
这7天从一头雾水到理清脉络，把DeFi顶流协议的底层扒了个遍：恒定乘积公式、流动性池原理、闪电贷玩法，还有工厂合约和路由合约的核心架构
Web3入门、想补AMM知识点的朋友，直接冲这份总结👇
🔗 https://t.co/4QdrqmCpD3
#ETHPanda #Web3Bootcamp #LXDAO @ETHPanda_Org @LXDAO_Official @web3careerbuild @IntensiveCL
常看常新
多年前中国某个街道上
一个摆地摊的男人
以他独特的见解讲清了
什么是区块链？什么是比特币？中本聪是什么？
hello各位好，经过这段时间学习，作为小白学习链上数据的过程中，我经常会感觉到知道了解一些指标，但不知道这些指标用在哪些情景，或者知道某些情景，但不知道这个情景应该分析哪些指标，针对这个我整理了一些主流的分析情景和项目以及分析他们要用的指标和查看这些指标的工具，内容可能写的不是很好，欢迎大家指教交流，希望可以给个赞和互关，感谢大家！
https://t.co/rYjpOckcpJ
#ETHPanda #Web3Bootcamp #LXDAO @ETHPanda_Org @LXDAO_Official @web3careerbuild @IntensiveCL
https://t.co/2b9xu8HBXY
小白初学Web3必了解的十类ERC标准
https://t.co/fRHjdZLV71
#ETHPanda #Web3Bootcamp #LXDAO @ETHPanda_Org @LXDAO_Official @web3careerbuild @IntensiveCL
@AirdropAlchemis 投研也得看时期，这种环境下投研纯是自我意淫，是这样吗 叔叔
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