Fredrik Pahlén

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@davidcasas82 @bot @poteto Yep

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@productive_will @NetworkChuck @OmarchyLinux I am running it on my MacBook Pro from 2015. Worth it!

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@MdeZegher @NicklasNilsso14 @elonmusk Thank you! It pains me when I drive by all those Superchargers still in their pyjamas.

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

**The 2048 Flare**

Elenore Petersson is sixty-seven. She sits in the quiet of her EPI office on a clear Stockholm evening in 2066 and watches the orbital trackers still updating in soft amber on the far wall.

She remembers when the markets were young.

By the mid-2020s the first serious books had opened. People were still arguing about whether a GPU-hour was a commodity or just another cloud SKU. Then the orbitals arrived. SpaceX-class constellations, then the successors. Continuous solar. Radiative cooling. Near-zero marginal energy. A new quality-and-location tier that the models said would keep adding capacity faster than terrestrial grids could ever match. By the early 2040s the long end of the orbital curve was priced as if the next fifteen years would be frictionless. Utilization assumptions were aggressive. Radiation risk premia had been compressed to almost nothing. The market treated the orbital basis like a permanent structural discount that only went one way.

Elenore never believed the perfection narrative.

She had spent too many nights reading the old Carrington papers and the modern SEU statistics. She understood that a big enough solar particle event would not politely degrade a few satellites. It would cascade. Single-event upsets, latch-ups, permanent damage on the less-hardened birds, forced safe-mode across large fractions of the mesh. Latency would spike. Error rates would explode. Capacity that had been sold forward as firm would suddenly look a lot more interruptible.

In the winter of 2047 she began building the position that would define her career. She shorted the long-dated orbital futures—especially the 2050–2060 strips that still carried the perfection premium. Against that short she went long Nordic premium and standard terrestrial capacity. Cheap hydro. Cold ambient. Hardened terrestrial interconnect. The classic location basis trade, only this time the other leg was space.

When the flare hit in March 2048 it was not the largest ever recorded, but it was large enough and fast enough. Roughly a third of the active orbital compute went dark within hours—some permanently, most for days to weeks. Spot orbital collapsed. The long end of the curve gaped open. Every shop that had been running the “orbitals solve power forever” book scrambled. Demand that could still move fled to Earth. Nordic utilization went vertical. The basis she had been long exploded in her favor.

She did not need to be a genius. She only needed to be the one person in the room who had bothered to price the tail that everyone else had decided was too remote to matter.

The crash made her name. EPI was no longer just another early compute desk. It became the firm that understood that every new tier carries its own physics, and that physics does not care about your term structure.

Tonight the trackers on her wall are calm. The orbital fleet is larger, better shielded, more redundant. The radiation risk premium is no longer zero. People still argue about whether it is high enough.

Elenore smiles the thin smile of someone who has already been paid for the last time the market decided nothing could go wrong.

She knows it will not be the last.

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@Qeruiem 💯
Jag håller på att bygga en struktur (typ spec) ovanför koden, ett slags strukturerad engelska som beskriver kontrakt, roller, processer etc.

Om du vill/har tid kan du kolla in det här:

https://t.co/8mmMVf1G0i

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

#NewProfilePic

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@CernBasher Awesome writing, thank you. 🙏

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@ICannot_Enough Well I can see your post and that’s the first time I think.

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@CernBasher Something like “To sign in deposit 100 satoshis here, you’ll get them back after successful login.”?

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@TeslaBoomerMama Thank you 🙏 for making corporate governance understandable and … somewhat interesting.
Also I really liked that you pointed out all the expertise of the people in this community.
It makes it soooo easy to invest in the Muskonomy.
Thanks!🙏

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@katmaryb There is no monopoly of common sense on either side of the political fence

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@SawyerMerritt Turning stomachs instead of heads.

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

Breakfast of Champions!

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@ekonomigurun_ Så det blir billigare än att försöka hänga på IPOn

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@ekonomigurun_ Räknar med att få tilldelning när SpaceX slås ihop med Tesla.

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

So what I am reading is that “it’s not fair to Tesla shareholders ” really means “it’s not fair to Tesla shareholders *if you apply my long term valuation and investment horizon*”
Which is pretty much uninteresting since no two investors share those values.
The reason why I would like a merger is:
- Elon in control with much less distractions from law suits.
- Elon less distracted by CEO duties (assuming Shotwell runs that part)
- I get much more SpaceX from a merger than from trying to convince some Swedish broker to get some shares allocated and then by on an oversubscribed IPO

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@TeslaBoomerMama Thank you Alexandra! Now have a wonderful birthday and let’s hope you never have to do another S1 again 😀

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@TeslaBoomerMama It is easier to pick up details if you have the gist of the thing first.

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@mgoetzke The overlap between countrys the has a car industry and are critical of FSD is…interesting. Probably nothing, ignore.

[Fredrik Pahlén @fpahlen]

@BuschEbba Tack till alla talare på minglet. Nu ökar vi tempot i Whyse Games. Inspirerande…och det verkar vara en framgångsfaktor att heta Fredrik 🤪
Nu är det heads-down and coding away som gäller. Ses efter sommaren! 🎉