My current obsession is Benjamin Franklin’s 24 Observations on Population, Wages, Immigration, and National Prosperity written in 1751.
Nearly 275 years ago, Franklin connected wages, marriage, birthrates, immigration, trade, and national strength.
It’s so simple, academic to a degree for Econ 101. But helps you zoom out from today’s culture war to think big picture.
His 24 observations, paraphrased (thanks AI):
1. Population trends differ between crowded nations and those with abundant land and opportunity.
2. People marry earlier and have more children when they can afford families.
3. High living costs in cities discourage marriage and natural population growth.
4. An oversupply of workers lowers wages, delaying marriage and reducing births.
5. Farming supports far more people per acre than hunting, allowing denser settlement.
6. Cheap land allows ordinary workers to become property owners and support families.
7. Early marriage and large families allow populations to double naturally within decades.
8. Abundant land keeps wages high because workers can become independent rather than remain hired laborers.
9. High colonial wages make American manufacturing unlikely to undercut Britain’s.
10. Prosperous colonies create larger markets for British goods. Restricting them hurts Britain.
11. Weakening colonial industry strengthens foreign competitors at Britain’s expense.
12. Slavery has substantial hidden costs. Owners favor it partly because free workers can leave.
13. Conquest, territorial losses, declining trade, food shortages, bad government, and slavery reduce population and prosperity.
14. Leaders who expand land, employment, food production, and trade enable families to grow.
15. Marriage incentives cannot overcome a lack of economic opportunity.
16. Foreign luxuries support foreign workers. Domestic production and exports strengthen the home nation.
17. What profits a merchant may harm a nation. Cheap imports can undermine domestic employment and population growth.
18. Widespread luxury raises the cost of living and discourages marriage.
19. Industrious parents prepare children for independence, earlier marriage, and larger families.
20. Communities practicing thrift and industry naturally grow faster.
21. Immigration into a fully employed country may displace natives rather than increase total population. Natural births can fill labor shortages.
22. With sufficient land and resources, a population can multiply without continuous immigration.
23. Healthy nations replenish themselves naturally. Franklin feared German immigrants retaining their language and customs rather than assimilating.
24. Franklin favored increasing the English and Saxon population and expressed racial prejudice against darker populations, concluding that preference for one’s own complexion was natural.
Franklin’s central argument:
National prosperity is not simply merchant profits, expanding trade, or imported labor.
It is whether ordinary people can earn decent wages, own property, marry, and raise families.
Franklin recognized that the interests of merchants and employers could conflict with those of a nation’s people.
Wages, immigration, birthrates, family formation, and national prosperity were interconnected in 1751.
And they still are today.