Frank Locascio

I write an email to 10,000+ about investing in the AI buildout:

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

Every Monday I send 10,000+ retail traders an email update on the AI buildout:

where the bottlenecks are, where the capex is flowing and which stocks I've got ranked the highest.

Free. One email a week. https://t.co/rUJX1oeiEZ

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@xueyu1125 google’s models are inferior

[Palmer Luckey @PalmerLuckey]

@TaylorLorenz @DavidSacks The New York Times fabricates quotes and then refuses to correct them for years on end.

You are operating under the assumption this is some particularly egregious ethics violation. It is not. They, and most outlets, are fully rotten and never held accountable.

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

we'll look back at the mainstream media's coverage of the jensen/china story with the same level of disdain as we have for their covid coverage

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Both the Biden and Trump administrations allowed the export of less powerful GPUs to China while reserving the most advanced chips for America. This has been a clear national security success.

Per Grok and Claude, the US-to-China AI FLOPs ratio has grown from 2.8x in 2023 to 8.8x in 2026 and is modeled to reach 14.1x in 2027. Our advantage in compute has grown dramatically and American AI labs have stayed well ahead of Chinese labs the entire time.

Chinese labs prefer these less powerful American GPUs to domestic accelerators from Huawei and others. That preference has slowed China’s hardware industry: AI chips improve through intensive use by leading labs, and the ready availability of American alternatives has limited that feedback loop for Chinese AI hardware.

Chinese labs can also access capacity in Southeast Asian clouds run by American hyperscalers. Those zones can be shut off instantly in a conflict, giving the US signficant leverage. This dependence is advantageous in every way.

A complete ban on GPU exports and Southeast Asian cloud access might be deeply damaging to long-term American national security. It would force Chinese labs onto the Huawei AI hardware ecosystem. China is not power-constrained, and Huawei is developing extremely power-hungry, large optical scale-up domains that may approach American state-of-the-art systems through brute force rather than architectural elegance and efficiency. And China has a lot of power.

Having Chinese labs optimize models for this different architecture is risky as nothing prevents China from sharing this hardware and associated models with Russia, North Korea, or Iran. We would lose any ability to cut off their AI in a conflict.

Policies now under discussion in Washington carry serious, uncertain risks. Reasonable minds can disagree, but treating this as a simple black-and-white issue does America a disservice.

If China closes the installed FLOPs gap as its domestic hardware matures rapidly as a result of increased Chinese lab usage after stricter export controls, we will know this new policy was a mistake.

If Russia, Iran, or North Korea later field comparable Chinese AI hardware systems that are used to run AI targeting models against Ukrainian or American troops, we will know stricter controls were a *terrible* mistake.

The current reality is one where China is consistently behind America thanks to the export of less powerful GPUs and we have immense leverage over China in any future conflict. We know that the current policy is working. We have no idea what the consequences of stricter controls might be.

This is why China is currently restricting imports of roughly 600,000 H200s sitting in Hong Kong warehouses. China Hawks should consider why Beijing agrees with them and why China *restricts* the sales American GPUs inside China.

The current policy has worked spectacularly. The alternative is extremely risky with unknown consequences.

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@AZ41460417 @Bannons_WarRoom huawei is a year or two behind nvda

but they would get much stronger if chinese co’s were required to buy their chips

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@BrettUngashick @QwQiao that's not a key point, that's a key question.

no one has claimed they have evidence jensen knowingly skirted any laws

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

does this go into the crypto reserve, or does it go back to binance

dystopian if they add it to the reserve

[Aggr News @AggrNews]

DOJ SEIZES $1.2BLN IN NORTH KOREA-LINKED CRYPTO THEFT, DISMANTLES "FACESTEALER" DEEPFAKE SCHEME TIED TO $6BLN BINANCE HACK: WEBSITE

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@AriDavidPaul @TimSweeneyEpic this is just how you want to spin it

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@zerohedge what's he gonna do manufacture supply from the ballroom?

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Bombshell story. The spy narrative is collapsing already.

Is there clear & convincing evidence that Alice Huang was a Chinese spy?

- AG says no. (“no conclusions reached”).
- CIA says no. (“not yet convinced”).
- DNI says no (“not entirely accurate and over-torqued”).
- Ranking Democrat on House Intelligence (incoming Chairman) says no. (“today, at least, I don’t know”). This was immediately after he was briefed.

Who argues otherwise? Anonymous officials tell CNN “it strains credulity to believe that she was not acting as an agent of the Chinese government — simply by virtue of the fact that she is a successful Chinese businesswoman working with one of America’s most powerful companies.”

This is their proof after a year of investigating and surveillance? That she was a “successful Chinese businesswoman”?

At this point, the only crime that we know for sure happened is the leaking of the classified memo. Who did that and why?

An investigation should be opened.

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@justseels has been a batshit year to be fair

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@Tyler_Durden77 @SonofCornPop @biancoresearch nasdaq down 3% since spcx ipo
spcx up 3% from $135 ipo price / down 4% from opening price

hardly a rug

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Well-meaning, patriotic China “Hawks” who are not AI/HW experts are putting American national security at risk.

China had *zero* chance of ever catching America in AI with the export strategy that Jensen supported. Their labs would have continued training using less powerful American GPUs which meant American labs would have always been ahead given scaling laws. And in the event of a conflict, we could have simply turned off all the Southeast Asian clouds.

Simply stated, in AI terms, America had machine guns and we were giving China muskets to prevent them from developing their own machine gun variants.

Given that it looks like the China “Hawks” will get their preferred policy, China will likely soon have a chance of catching America in AI by going down an alternate, less power-efficient AI hardware path. They almost certainly would not have gone down this path if less powerful GPUs were still available in China and via Southeast Asian clouds.

And it will be a much less stable world if China pulls even or ahead of America in AI after developing their own alternative AI HW and gives this technology to Russia, Iran and North Korea. And all of this will be possible if the China “Hawks” get their preferred policy.

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@SonofCornPop @Tyler_Durden77 @biancoresearch yeah it closed at 185 through the first 5 trading days

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@DeItaone would love to know what the alice huang spy evidence is

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@AlbertonFreeman @ComicDaveSmith nonsense, we had ground troops in iraq and afghanistan and those lasted 8+ years each

iran much stronger opponent as well

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

@Hernandez_A hard agree

right now it's a pretty park with nothing to do in it

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

full list https://t.co/bBPlX2iuce

[Frank Locascio @franklo]

ai drug discovery just took the lead in the ai trade

$SDGR +21% and $CERT +27% over the last month