paint

diary

[paint @frdaynights]

Zero bounce on $SPCX

[Evanss6 @Evan_ss6]

Just want to point out a few things wrong/missing from this analysis to give a more informed take:

The takes on being a bucket shop are silly so won't even respond to that. I don't believe there is some "Holy" level of leverage to offer that the CME has mastered. The key is safety and being able to properly liquidate positions. People trading on high leverage want high leverage, period.

Crypto Share of Volume: Share relative to Binance is making fresh highs. Still at just 15%. Keep in mind since this is a % of Binance rather than a % of the whole, this can go above 100% in best case scenario (not saying this is likely).

AQAv2: 90% of the yield from USDC is being used to buy back HYPE. This is known but the flows don't start until October. Addition of $150-200M to ARR.

HyperCore Priority Fees: This was essentially 0 two months ago and a $20M ARR currently. This has a lot of room to grow potentially and is yet another signal that when this team ships, there is immediate uptake and boost to revenue.

HyperEVM network fees: burning around $1M HYPE/month

Ticker auctions: burning around $2.5M/year

HIP-4: brand new, currently no significant contribution. Kalshi and Polymarket have demonstrated PMF for Prediction Markets. I personally am not very bullish on this sector but maybe I'm wrong.

HIP-5 and beyond: the team continues to ship and most things they ship see real uptake. I could imagine them eventually launching options among other things.

The Regulatory Fork: Most serious money is still not allowed to use Hyperliquid. Hedge Funds are locked out because of LP agreements, and MMers for regulatory reasons. Opening up the market to America and to serious professionals like HFs/MMers. This would be tremendously bullish on volumes and liquidity. I call it a "fork" because the downside case is they get lawfared out forever. If this is your thesis, I implore you to watch this recent interview that I will link below with the CFTC chair.

Hyperliquid as a Liquidity Backend: we have already seen large uptake of builder codes as consumer-facing products such as Phantom and Fomo offer perps to users in their frontends via their builder codes. The best case scenario for Hyperliquid is that it becomes one of the liquidity backends for traditional brokers and MMers. If Hyperliquid can continue offering better pricing than CME (as they do on BTC/ETH/SOL futures), this could become a large source of future volume in the good regulatory scenarios.

Staking Rewards and Community Tokens: Lazy analysis values HYPE at its fully diluted value. More careful analysis realizes 1) most emissions go directly to existing token holders 2) future community emissions (nearly 40% of fully diluted supply) may never happen, partially happen, or be redirected to stakers over N number of years. If 1 HYPE staked today = 2 HYPE staked in N years, the price is effectively halved today (ignoring tax distortions). The circulating cap is around $17B today, and this isn't backing out any supply, including that owned by Hyperliquid Strategies DAT, which is presumably off the market.

Hyperliquid.

[HL Eco @hl_eco]

By community request, 5 new dashboards are live on https://t.co/WaFSSsVwBa:

trade[XYZ] Overview: the #1 HIP-3 deployer, fully tracked. Volume, fees, open interest, trader statistics, trader concentration, per-market activity and more.
https://t.co/qSgCB2k2cX

Hyperliquid Strategies Treasury History: the Nasdaq DAT's treasury over time. HYPE-per-share accretion, weekly accumulation and its share of HYPE supply.
https://t.co/IlVCkRF15u

Assistance Fund Buyback History: the AF's HYPE buys over time, by day, week or month, with the average price it paid each period.
https://t.co/cKYfPNaCBY

Hyperion DeFi ($HYPD): the Nasdaq-listed HYPE treasury, now fully tracked.
https://t.co/DnxAN7MF0n

Real Inflation: HYPE's real emission rate. Validator issuance net of the buyback and burns, the emissions reserve, and a forward model of net supply, deflationary at today's pace.
https://t.co/ngJS0Ovqoo

Hyperliquid.

[Haseeb ＞|＜ @hosseeb]

CME now suing one of their primary regulators, the CFTC, for having approved perps on crypto. CME argues that these products should not have been approved, as they are "useless for institutional investors" and cause retail investors to assume "excessive levels of risk."

CFTC claps back:

“Rather than compete in the marketplace, the CME has decided to undertake lawfare against the agency and the Trump Administration’s pro-innovation agenda,” a CFTC spokesperson said in a statement. “Incumbents fear the future and having to compete on a level playing field. We look forward to addressing their claims and dismissing this frivolous lawsuit.”

This is literally the inverse of the @coinbase SEC lawsuit. Coinbase sued the SEC for the right to exist, while CME is suing their regulator because they don't want their competition to exist.

[x256.hl @x256xx]

After 266 days, they finally released the card to the public.

Trillions

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

i wake up

i see this tweet every morning

i feel like im in a loop and starting to go crazy

next thing i see the deal is done, i go to bed

i wake up, iran wants to make a deal

[paint @frdaynights]

His name was Garrett bullish.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla and SpaceX over the next few months:

• June 18: CRSP index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $4-7B in forced buying by passive funds.

• June 18: FTSE Russell index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $6-9B in forced buying by passive funds.

• June 26: MSCI index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $3-5B in forced buying by passive funds.

• End of June: HW3 Tesla owners get FSD V14 Light. Expect possible delays.

• July 2: Tesla Q2 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.

• July 6: NASDAQ 100 index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $8-12B in forced buying by passive funds.

• Late July: Tesla Q2 earnings call.

• Early-mid August: SpaceX Q2 earnings call, their first earnings call as a public company.

• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings released: 30% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 12% of all outstanding shares).

NOTE: Since only about 40% of all outstanding shares are eligible for early release lockups, that 30% above equates to 12% of all outstanding shares. Elon's shares, board member shares, and some others, are subject to an extended lockup of 366 days. Together, the shares subject to these extended lockup restrictions represent 60% of SpaceX's outstanding shares.

• August 21: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September 10: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September 25: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September: Indexes rebalance. SpaceX will then have a higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.

• October 2: Tesla Q3 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.

• October 12: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• October 26: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• Late October: Tesla Q3 earnings call.

• Early-mid November: SpaceX Q3 earnings call.

• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q3 earnings released: 28% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 11.2% of all outstanding shares).

• December 9: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• December: Indexes rebalance again. SpaceX will then have an even higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.

(The Cursor acquisition will likely affect these lockup percentages slightly)

[Evanss6 @Evan_ss6]

The Big Short taught a generation the wrong lesson: it microwaved them into romanticizing trying to monetize the red circles, when the real wealth came from surviving them and riding the green.

This is Michael Burry’s fault

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

now I'm 27, my parents are retired early, my wife is amazing, and I'm in the best health that I've ever been - mentally and physically

I've settled down, bought a house, travel the world when I'd like to, and my biggest worry is watering my garden.

truly blessed.

much love🖤🎂

[jords @jords]

when big moves happen you will almost never feel fully satisfied. there will be moments of pure joy followed almost immediately by the anxiety of what could have been

big green candles are the same as big red candles. you could have bought/sold more, you could have used leverage, you could have bought a different coin or been short

but what could have been wasn't, and therefore couldn't have been. i like to imagine the worst outcome for every decision i didn't take

maybe if longed zcash with leverage last night it would give me such overconfidence that i open other terrible positions and leave myself exposed to liquidation. maybe i get addicted to perps and it becomes the single inflection point to a life lived poorly

bull markets end on good news, bear markets begin on bad news. i imagine every trade i didn't take as the potential end of my profit, because the alternative is useless reflection

be at peace with imperfection, if you're winning at all then you are outperforming most people most of the time

if you are never satisfied with results then you will chase larger ones until you no longer have results worth being satisfied with

you are doing your best and that is all you can do, the story of success is always a long one. you are not defined by your decisions in the past few weeks

in spite of everyone talking about 'the last cycle ever' it is not true. assets trade on greed and psychology, these are ever-present and opportunity will continue into the future

perfection is the enemy of the good. consistent improvement is far better than delayed perfection

i believe in you young king, you're going to make it some day, but it will take patience

[Jukan @jukan05]

Aletheia Capital raises its SK Hynix price target to KRW 5.3 million

Based on:

10x CY27E FCF
10x P/E

This implies 125% upside from the current share price.

[MONK @defi_monk]

For those of you who were looking for $HYPE in the 40s, you likely would have gotten it if $PURR hadn’t TWAP’d in $130M during the drawdown. Relative to $HYPE’s circulating market cap this is a very significant amount of buy pressure.

This isn’t just a DAT story, all of this is coming from a surge in demand from TradFi buyers who have been gravitating towards $PURR as the primary public $HYPE proxy.

Bob and David have weaponized this demand quite well and have been running the ATM aggressively.

Compare this to other alt DATs who have been unable to generate recurring buying power after their initial purchases due to a complete lack of demand.

It’s going to be very interesting a month from now to see which funds have initiated $PURR positions once 13Fs start popping up.

Not a DAT evangelizer, just wanted to make a point that traditional TA isn’t as useful when assessing a cryptoasset like $HYPE which is the only alt seeing active tradfi inflows. CT has very low visibility on this.

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

in 2021 i put $450k into palantir at $25.

it dropped to $7. i sat in that drawdown for almost three years. when it finally came back i sold at $36 in nov 2024, relieved to get out with a gain.

two months later it was $200.

i'd love to tell you i didn't care. truth is i deleted it from my watchlist the day i sold so i wouldn't have to watch whatever came next. this was cope/pure self defense.

but it worked. never reentered out of spite, never revenge traded it, never let it follow me into the next decision.

not the first trade i royally screwed up. won't be the last.
the only part you control is leaving clean.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

I did see many people looking for the 30's and 40's. But I think what they failed to realize is that OI fully unwound the buildup it had but price ended up $15 higher due to spot buys from the AF and PURR buying a few hundred million. The supply doesnt exist bc it was removed. hence the $15 net difference at the lows.

Every single action that is ever taken on Hype, accrues values to it's holders. Trading, sending receiving, soon 3.5% of USDC supply and then Purr is a dat.

2m per day on average buys and burns in a bear market for crypto. Which Hype is now making sure it isn't attached to just one market. and 2m in a day doesnt really move the needle vs short term flows, but over a year it will have a large impact. combine aqav2 and AF and you have a billion in buys and burns coming in the next year alone assuming no growth and excluding purr

[smolting (wassie, verse) @inversebrah]

.

[Hunter Horsley @HHorsley]

Fun to see Hyperliquid and $BHYP in @citrini's memo today —

"State of the Themes: June 2026"

Full piece here: https://t.co/uikKcaFCVA

[mert @mert]

@SenWarren the typical american does not accelerate spaceflight, electrical cars, solar energy, neural implants, internet payments, underground tunnels, AI, and social media -- while minting 50,000 new millionaires and creating millions of jobs you witch

[hdf @PaikCapital]

love or hate the man, he went all in.

and won.

bet on yourself.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

I love the incredible people of SpaceX beyond words