FreddyThaFish

The Fibonacci guy I 10+ year swing trader |Trade ideas are only ideas | Master Fibonacci retracements

[bacon @steve2bacon]

my portfolio every time Jensen has sex outside of marriage

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Costco spots a recession before economists do.

When members shift from beef to chicken, then to canned tuna, something in the economy is bending.

You don't need a model. You need a checkout counter and millions of members with long memories.

[Vince Langman @LangmanVince]

Hey @grok, explain to me like I'm a five-year-old how the Democrats got almost 20 million more votes in this midterm than in 2022?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: South Korea’s KOSPI collapses -9%, triggering a trading halt, after opening for the first time since today’s US market decline.

The index is now down -47% from its record high.

[The Rabbit Hole @TheRabbitHole]

Bureaucrats think money can magically solve any problem if enough of it is spent.

It's not that simple.

Strategy matters.

[KalaniTheGreat @KalaniTheGreat]

The California Mileage Tax would charge residents 6¢-per-mile, that is about $900 a year for someone driving 15,000 miles.

The future of the Mileage Tax depends on who voters send to Sacramento.

VOTE STEVE HILTON. STOP THE MILEAGE TAX.

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

In 1986, Ronald Reagan allowed ~1.4m illegal immigrants in California to become citizens

1988 was the last time California voted Republican, ever.

Elon's caution about opening borders and creating voting pathways is *the literal playbook* and has already been done once

If politicians can win elections by altering demographics (including by importing or creating more voters for their party) the entire premise of the American system is permanently broken

This is a far more important issue than any individual issue on the ballot

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

My biggest concern is that if there is a clean sweep by Democrats of the House, Senate and Presidency in 2028, they will:

1. Make DC and Puerto Rico states to gain a strong majority in the Senate.

2. Open the borders and legalize everyone living in America illegally to cement a permanent majority.

3. Increase the size of the Supreme Court to gain an immediate majority.

This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word.

All that is needed to ensure this doesn’t happen is 51 Republican senators in 2029. That is why you should vote for Republican senators this election. Other reasons are irrelevant compared to this one.

[Stocktwits @Stocktwits]

Every. Single. Trade. 💀

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Microsoft stock, $MSFT, surges over +5% after reporting stronger than expected Q3 earnings.

[Stocktwits @Stocktwits]

FED AT 2

WARSH AT 2:30

GOOGLE + MICROSOFT AFTER THE BELL

The stock market later today:

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Look at this.

Microsoft offers buyouts to 60,000 employees.

$MSFT up 1% to $530.

Earnings are this Wednesday after the close.

Dark pool volume is stacked right at $530, with the biggest prints sitting near $495 from mid-Sept.

Net call flow is climbing into the print (+$22M) while put flow stays flat.

[Mark Anthony @Muskstaycalm]

Imagine that.

[FreddyThaFish @freddythafish]

I really like the chart 🙂

[RegardedTrader @JonEtrades]

$MSFT $11 million bet

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Professional trading is not about being right or wrong. It’s about seeing the caution signs—the red lights, the green lights, and the yellow flags—and adjusting accordingly.
The market is constantly giving you information. Your job isn’t to prove you’re right. Your job is to recognize when conditions change and yield when necessary.
Those who adapt the fastest, adjust the best, and know when to yield are the ones who stay in the game long enough to win.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Here are all the most important highlights from @SpaceX's Q3 2026 earnings report and earnings call:

• Total revenue: $14.58B, up 161% YoY from $5.58B and up 87% QoQ from $7.81B.

• Adjusted EBITDA: $8.81B, up 306% YoY from $2.17B and up 149% QoQ from $3.54B.

• Total Capex: $19.59B, up 185% YoY from $6.88B and 7% QoQ from $18.37B, primarily driven by SI infrastructure investments.

• Q4 Capex guidance: SpaceX expects capital expenditures of $35B–$40B in Q4 2026 as it accelerates SI compute deployment.

• Net income: $4.40B, compared to a $1.05B loss a year earlier.

• Income from operations: $2.79B, compared to a $273M loss YoY and a $143M loss in Q2.

• Q1 2027 revenue guidance: $33B–$37B in total revenue during Q1 2027.

• Annualized revenue target: SpaceX remains on track for $100B in annualized revenue by the end of 2026, based on December's revenue run rate.

• Elon's 2027 revenue projection: SpaceX could reach $500B–$1T in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027

• Backlog: Reached $63B as of September 30, including $17.5B in deferred revenue. ~$42B is expected to be recognized within the next 12 months.

• Space revenue: $1.77B, up 6% YoY

• Connectivity revenue: $5.25B, up 69% YoY and 22% QoQ; Consumer revenue was $3.12B (+57% YoY) and Enterprise & Government revenue was $2.13B (+91% YoY).

• Connectivity operating income: $2.37B, up 99% YoY from $1.19B and 43% QoQ from $1.66B.

• Starlink subscribers: 13.6M, up 89% YoY; consumer ARPU increased to $69/month from $66 in Q2.

• Super Intelligence (SI) revenue: $7.56B, up 830% YoY and 195% QoQ

• SI operating income: Positive $431M, compared to a $1.72B loss YoY and a $1.26B loss in Q2.

• SI Adjusted EBITDA: Positive $4.95B, compared to a $428M loss a year earlier and $1.15B in Q2.

• SI Capex: $16.44B, up 245% YoY from $4.76B and 4% QoQ from $15.83B, representing ~84% of total quarterly Capex spend.

• Cloud Services Agreements: Signed additional agreements during Q3, with SI solutions and infrastructure revenue growing 192% QoQ excluding Cursor.

• SI compute economics: Newly deployed compute capacity is generating payback periods of less than 12 months at current pricing, which is slightly above the previously discussed $30–$50 per watt range.

• Cursor revenue: Contributed $608M in revenue between August 14 and September 30.

• Grok Bot: Reached 800,000 paid weekly users in early October, more than doubling over the prior month.

• Grok Bot enterprise rollout expected in a few weeks.

• Cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities: Approximately $90B at quarter-end

• Operating cash flow: Generated $13.1B during the first nine months of 2026, up 218% from $4.12B during the same period in 2025.

• Starship Flight 15: Targeted for November 2026, with SpaceX planning to attempt a tower catch of Starship's upper stage.

• National Security launches: Secured 18 additional National Security Space Launch missions.

• Starlink aviation: More than 3,800 aircraft were equipped with Starlink as of September 30.

• Starlink aviation contracts: ~12,000 aircraft are now under contract for Starlink service, representing nearly a quarter of the available commercial aircraft market.

• Starlink Mobile users: Surpassed 22M monthly users at the end of Q3, up 37% QoQ.

• Starlink Mobile U.S. launch: SpaceX plans to integrate its spectrum acquisitions and begin activating the expanded service in early 2028, with the gaol of becoming a major U.S. mobile carrier.

• SI compute: Expanded nameplate compute capacity to 1.7 GW, up from 1.4 GW in Q2 and 0.6 GW a year earlier.

• October compute target: SpaceX expects to reach nearly 2 GW of nameplate compute capacity by the end of October 2026.

• Year-end compute target: SpaceX expects 2.5–3 GW of nameplate compute capacity by the end of 2026.

• 2027 compute target: Elon expects to add at least 10 GW of incremental compute capacity in 2027, potentially bringing the total to 13 GW or more. Elon said there is a small possibility of exceeding 20+ GW of active SI compute by the end of 2027.

• GPU deployments: SpaceX is bringing approximately 200,000–220,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs online monthly, with plans to maintain or accelerate that pace.

• Nvidia Vera Rubin deployment: SpaceX expects its 2027 compute expansion to rely primarily on NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin architecture.

• SpaceX plans to bring a training cluster with 440,000 Vera Rubin computers online by the end of Q2 2027.

• Targeting May or June 2027 for the first functional test chips from the Austin research fab.

• Terafab mass production: SpaceX is targeting Q3–Q4 2028 for potential volume chip production at its Gibbons Creek facility

[Options King Of The Sea @SeaKingOptions]

Fast facts when $SPY volume is this low:

- Extremely low volume almost always precedes drawdowns

- It's not just an outlier trading day, $SPY 50-day average volume is at 40.6M, the lowest since at least 2005.

- Dec '24 had the lowest 50-day avg before now, and $SPY drew down -21% over the next 5 months

[Flowseidon @kiantrades]

$DVN 55C 12/18exp $3.2M
#flowseidon

[RegardedTrader @JonEtrades]

$DVN $3.6 mil in these calls