Former $INTC CEO Pat Gelsinger warns Taiwan holds less than three weeks of energy reserves, and a Chinese blockade that browns out the island shuts its fabs for 90 days at a cost greater than the Great Depression. And no shot needs to be fired.
"Now, let's make it ugly for a second. The island of Taiwan has less than 3 weeks, a big article in the Wall Street Journal two weeks ago on this, less than 3 weeks of energy reserves."
"That should just put a chill in everybody's spine, right? Because the blockade after 3 weeks, the island browns out. When you turn off a fab, it doesn't come back on for 90 days."
"The economic impact of a brown out of Taiwan is greater than the Great Depression."
"Never do you need to do anything, a shot to be fired. You just need to say, great, no energy for 3 weeks."
"That is scary to me. We need more resilient supply chains."
Neoclouds: The Kimi K3 Scare
Kimi K3 caused a large scare in the AI trade as this Chinese open source model matched frontier models on benchmarks. Let me unpack what's actually going on.
Chinese Labs have much less GPUs than American Labs and yet are able to train "just as good" of a model. This implies that Chinese Labs have huge efficiencies that allow them to use much less GPUs in training. This is would imply less HBM, less datacenters, less cloud bills - the whole capex heavy buildout that the AI trade is predicated upon.
Now here's the big hole in all this logic. MoonshotAI, the Lab that made Kimi K3, is supposedly a magnitude more efficient in training than American Labs yet their inference compute consumption is the same or less efficient! Kimi K3 cost exactly the same as GPT 5.5 and slightly less than Claude 4.8 Opus High.
Some people are misunderstanding what expensive tokens mean. Yes the cost of the open source weights/topology is 0 but the amount of the compute/GPUs that you need to run the model is a metric of a efficient your inference is. Compute/GPU time is very expensive and cost of open source inference is very not free.
Now, it makes absolutely zero sense that MoonshotAI Kimi is so much more efficient in training but slightly less efficient in inference. Why? Training is a the forward pass plus backward pass and inference is the forward pass. This means that training efficiency improvements lead to inference efficiency improvements.
You know why MoonshotAI training and inference efficiencies are asymmetric? Because their "training efficiencies" come from distilling American models. If MoonshotAI had true training efficiencies they would also show inference efficiencies but they have no advantage in inference efficiencies!
AI Capex will still continue because:
1. If American Labs stop training capex, then Chinese models will also stop improving. AI progress will have stopped. American companies have never given up just because Chinese are trying to copy them.
2. Chinese model still consume alot of compute/GPUs for inference. Inference demand will outstrip training demand anyways.
🚨 Kansas City firefighters literally had to take a SAW to a porta-potty to rescue a man who got stuck UNDERNEATH the toilet seat. They even had to hose him off by the fire truck afterward. 🤢🚒
Honestly, how does someone even end up down there?!
ICE disguised in plain clothes tackle elderly man in airport—assisted by TSA officer.
Agents ran away when saw they were being filmed.
So fast they left man with handcuffs on his wrist for over an hour.
"A stretcher arrived to treat his injuries... He boarded my flight," said witness.
Incident occurred inside Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Chris Motley doesn't have an account on this platform—so posting first full length and credited video here to help raise awareness.
🚨 Florida police tackled and broke a 15-year-old Black teen’s arm while searching for a white runaway they had just seen in a photo.
Judah Everage was on his knees with his hands in the air when officers slammed him to the ground near Wickham Park in Melbourne. He wasn’t the person they were looking for, but they still fractured his elbow. Body camera footage shows he was complying the entire time.
One officer has since resigned, but the others involved are still on the job.
This is what happens when police treat Black kids as suspects first and ask questions later. Disgusting.
Sources: Body camera footage / Local reporting