Nicanor Austriaco OP

Professor of Biological Sciences and Professor Sacred Theology, UST. Professorial Lecturer of Philosophy, UP Diliman

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

My article 'Interrogating COVID-19 vaccine intent in the Philippines with a nationwide open-access online survey' was one of the top 5 most viewed #COVID19 #GlobalHealth and #PublicHealth articles published in @PeerJLife journal in 2022! 😊 https://t.co/Pwk71i53nu

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

https://t.co/MpYMsnVvkE

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

Today, the DOH forecasts that national daily cases will drop below 2,100 by March 15th. However, today, on February 14th, the daily case number is already around 2,750, and we are still one month away from March 15th! Very strange.

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

https://t.co/xsyDEhe7YB

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

It is turning into a beautiful symmetric curve with a rapid plunge that mirrors the rapid rise in numbers.

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

The Omicron surge in the NCR appears to be peaking. If this is the case, numbers should begin to plunge this coming week. It is the plunge that will confirm the peak.

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

Well, the antigen testing done on January 12, 2022, on the MRT, revealed that around 15% of passengers were positive. If the population of the NCR is 13M and if the MRT testing was truly random -- which is unlikely -- then up to 1.95M people in Metro Manila are positive now.

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

When testing is limited -- suggested by the very high positivity rate -- it is hard to know the true number of positive cases in a population. We currently have around 100K active cases in the NCR. How many residents are truly positive for COVID-19?

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

The reported daily case numbers for the past several days suggests that the Omicron surge in approaching its peak in the NCR.

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

Scientific reasoning is about taking the available evidence and coming up with the most probable conclusion. It is never about 100% certainty. It is highly probable that the current surge is driven by Omicron and that that the majority of our 200K cases is Omicron.

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

Sec. Duque is correct: Sound scientific reasoning and robust empirical evidence suggest that the Omicron variant is driving the current surge and has become dominant, at least in the NCR.

[Nicanor Austriaco OP @friaronwater]

3) Look at the clinical picture of the surge: Today, of the 206,696 active cases, only 4,638 (2%) are neither mild or asymptomatic. Data from South Africa shows that Omicron hospitalized 4.9% of cases while Delta hospitalized 13.7%. Once again, Omicron!