fritrescondzzz

Global Macro

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@degentradingLSD Thanks for great thoughts.

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@Ariston_Macro 以類似圖中的趨勢線algo，我們的是從12/16 92100走平至今的91850，供參。

[Jacob Canfield @JacobCanfield]

Looks like the CME margin requirements are getting raised already for Dec 29th for Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium.

Careful of volatility come Monday / Tuesday in precious metals.

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@JeffLia12309881 @igniken1 對vix認知有限，但vix期貨流動性並不好，如果僅是對沖美股，不需要delta hedge vix.如果是說波動率相對價值基金的話，有可能，但透過ES更好些

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@JeffLia12309881 現在傳統市場已經沒了，crypto應該還有

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 現在跟1996市場結構比 毫無意義

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 關稅通脹預期證偽+就業市場轉向堅韌而非繼續大幅失速 就可以

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 1. 黃金繼續BTD,但跟避險需求無關。2.跨資產波動率下降或保持低位，股指risk parity仍有加倉空間。3. 有。

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 私人部門資產負債表現在是幾十年來最好的時候，借貸增加很合理。

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 日債拋售會吸引國內買家，會減少日資美債需求，風險在美債長端，TIC後續若公布需求收縮，美債長端會反應。

[George Hart @Vera_Icona_23]

The Jan 13 gap fill forecast was spectacular, especially for those focused on "what will the market do next"

Now do yourself a huge favor that will last at least a year or two. In this podcast @jam_croissant covers in depth:

1/the recent jump in short term VIX due to the SPX drop that makes a rebound for couple weeks-couple of months due to vanna and charm highly likely

2/the likelihood that the period between Feb and Mar Opex a real danger zone for the beginning of a sustained stair step drop reminiscent of 1972-1980 for many of the same reasons including populism and interest rates

3/After 40 years of steadily falling long term interest rates the tide has turned and many large holders/buyers are caught offside with portfolios that will continue to decay with no opportunity to "buy a substantial dip" The Pain Trade will become horrific. The end result of fixed income institutions not massively hedging while the hedging was cheap.

4/Inflation with higher prices will help revenues for equities but profit margins will take a beating while at the same time rising long term bond rates will push equity PEs lower and lower.

5/Vol in the near term is still reasonably well supplied, but ever since the sharp August SPX drop when near term vol fell back to very low levels, in contrast vol for 6-8-12 months far out on the bearish low delta wing has stayed high leading to high put skew and has stuck there as it is not being supplied. A sustained even relatively sharp market pullback could push those elevated vol levels at low delta even higher because it would be a dangerous place to sell vol into.

6/This could be a strong convexity trade, as could the situation in bonds described above. In both cases those looking for protection or "relief" could be forced to pay an excruciating price for it.

7/China situation could be currently being read quite wrong. It is not 2016. Since then China and Russia have closely united. So a Russia=Friend China=Enemy strategy will not work. Add to that @elonmusk need for strong China Tesla market and Elon's strong influence on Trump and "detente" with China could propel heavily discounted Chinese equities into prominence. Not a sure bet but a very interesting lottery ticket

Best way to digest this extremely important long explanation by Cem is to open it in the Apple Podcast app and then choose the "Transcript" Extraordinarily valuable. You will long remember it. the Mother of All Macro Outlooks (with some critical option flow / positioning information thrown in)

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 別聽BCA在那邊唬爛，75%住房擁有者抵押貸款利率在5%以下。且過半是小於4%

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 還有畫失業率的

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@richfalkwallace @__paleologo Awesome I would like the excel. Thanks

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 自己理解是疫情後各國債務飆升引發的貨幣價值問題，貨幣本質背後是各國信用，各國舉債過多使不可持續性上升是主因。當然歐美利率見頂、新興市場央行這幾年持續購金、部分機構長期配置另類資產(貴金屬、地產等)都是原因。(但沒有明確因素能解釋黃金三月至今漲幅)

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

Two underappreciated reasons why inflation is unpopular: Risk and Asymmetry.

(1) Risk - Inflation forces employees to defend their wages from reductions. Nominally, wage reductions are out of the question. But inflation makes wage reductions the status quo--what happens if you don't succeed in arranging a (greater) pay raise.

Same is true wrt savings. People normally can't take away what you've earned in the past. But inflation makes that possible--indeed, it makes it the default, the status quo. And in environments of negative interest rates, which usually occur in the initial phase of inflation, people necessarily have to take losses on their savings, even when they do everything possible to protect themselves (at the end of the day, someone has to be the bagholder that ends up holding the economy's depreciating paper assets, there is no alternative).

Obviously, people don't like when what they have (income and savings) is suddenly placed at risk, subjected to arbitrary confiscatory prospects that they have to then overcome, in exchange for nothing.

(2) Asymmetry - Even when nominal wages and wealth levels rise alongside inflation, the increase is not uniform. Some people end up better off than before, others end up worse off. Being made worse off creates more anger than being made better off creates satisfaction--especially when the outcome seems (and is) arbitrary.

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 跟昨天天量SOFR 交易比較有關吧

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@winwin1788 日圓期貨 日圓選擇權 現金外匯(可以有槓桿，IB有)

[fritrescondzzz @fritrescondzzz]

@richfalkwallace Would like a copy. Thanks