Frog

[Frog @frog_1309]

People are getting Muse impacts wrong. What’s the value of EXPE? Seamless top of funnel customer experience. That’s disrupted by Muse. What’s the value of Airbnb? Unique inventory. That’s valuable for Muse. Expect Muse and the consumer agentic tools that follow to try to woo ABNB

[Frog @frog_1309]

Downstream considerations: watch what the UAE and Saudi do — they control oil price and want the conflict over too. Expect more pressure on EU consumer and Asian consumer than the US — their chems start with naphtha.

[Frog @frog_1309]

The conflict in Iran only ends when either: there’s a leader in place the US can live with, or Trump is forced out politically. We’re only a week in — what we know now is that Iran has been able to maintain the fight. So it’s a time game:

[Frog @frog_1309]

The US consumer hasn’t felt much pain yet, but the key to watch will be fuel prices. Currently $3.45 and rising 5-10c per day; historically $4.50 is a hard place politically.

https://t.co/4BKkU4YVvF

[Frog @frog_1309]

Investors need to think of Visa and Mastercard as a pro-consumer permissioning system for commerce. Not just an old school card rail. The system works with tokens, agents, digital currencies and has decades of legal, regulatory, and business adoption

[Frog @frog_1309]

This article by Citrini is eerily timed with XYZ laying off 40% of their workforce, in key software engineering positions.

The only part I strongly disagree with is the take on Visa and Mastercard.

I think they’re well positioned for agentic commerce.

https://t.co/HujRgrbv65

[Frog @frog_1309]

I want my agent to get me the best deal. Using Visa or Mastercard gives me 2%+ back on most transactions. Crypto doesn’t. It costs me money.

V/MA also provide me with protections as a consumer via chargebacks and authorization requests. If my agent goes haywire, I’m protected.

[Frog @frog_1309]

@pulte FICO quarterly results.. I don’t think +36%y/y mortgage fees is protecting the consumer.

“B2B revenues were up 36%, primarily attributable to higher mortgage origination scores unit price”

[Frog @frog_1309]

@pulte CONSUMERS NEED BI-MERGE.

[Frog @frog_1309]

@pulte CONSUMERS NEED BI-MERGE. There’s ZERO competition among the bureaus with tri-merge.