frontieralpha.com

Independent thought on frontier markets. No recommendations on listed securities. Follows & retweets are not endorsements.

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#China #BeltandRoad taking longer than plan. But no other infra financing of similar scale. #CPEC already sorted #Pakistan elec shortage, albeit expensively. Focus on #Gwadar misses elec,road,rail projects & more senior leadership on Pak side, @AsimSBajwa https://t.co/FkQ1H2y4Rg

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

After panic of last week, worth noting that valuation discount of #emergingmarkets to developed markets is still near the widest seen over the last decade.

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Turkey engagement outside its borders is inevitable (with no global superpower) but rising military expenditure adds to existing vulnerability of economic growth (high inflation, negative real rates, high fiscal deficit, dependence on foreign capital inflow). #EmergingMarkets

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#srilanka Colombo land value up 10% yoy in 2H 2019 (central bank data from 26 Feb). Sounds impressive, fits local narrative on improving business and consumer confidence after return of Rajapaksas. But note that this is a slower rate of increase than seen in prior 18 months.

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

Upgrade of General Investment Authority to a full ministry underlines the importance of private sector home-grown and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the future of #SaudiArabia. https://t.co/lTdD6S1lh7

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Iran is first example of a high incidence of #COVIDー19 COVID-19 in country with relatively weak public health infrastructure (1.5 hospital beds per 1000 people, half of US or Saudi levels. Inevitable we see more examples across Asia and, perhaps, Africa. https://t.co/xaSyvwaAlu

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Malaysia Mahatir "resigns". Siding with UNMO & PKR rebels (Azmin bloc) could establish parliament majority without distraction of Anwar handover. Unlikely Anwar can muster scale of protests in 1998 (post-Asian Crisis, crony capitalism). Malaysia certainly needs better politics.

[Tellimer @TellimerHQ]

Pakistan likely to remain on FATF grey list. Free to read here: https://t.co/w0Lm8jm3bO

#DevelopingMarkets #EmergingMarkets #Pakistan #FATF #Investment #InvestmentResearch

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#dpworld delisting: relief for equity managers in this high quality value stock (c30% premium to last price). But #MENA loses world class listed company, investor relations team. From exuberant hot IPO in 2007 to exasperated delisting of an illiquid stock in small EM in 2020!

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

Disunity (ie US vs rest), concern on internal (illiberal populism) and external (inadequacy of alliances like #NATO to deal with #China #Russia data protection & standards in internet tech, non-state actors, #climate change); on display at MunichSecurityConference 2020 #MSC2020

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#FATF The Financial Action Task Force meeting runs from 16 to 21 Feb. #Pakistan likely stays on its “Grey” list.

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Pakistan “All end-December performance criteria were met, and structural benchmarks have been completed.” ⁦statement by IMF at end of its visit ⁩⁦@IMFNews⁩ https://t.co/NlipNpVMf9

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Philippines president #Duterte downgrades US #military cooperation by terminating Visiting Forces Agreement (although core agreements underpinning that cooperation still in place). Another step to rebalance US & #China (like most south & southeast #Asia countries).

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Kenya locusts are getting close to central and west regions important for agriculture (30% of GDP). Sadly, a risk to keep an eye on.

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

Umm...and gdp per capita about 30% lower in 2019 than it was in 2011, skyrocketing inflation, plummeting exchange rate #Iran @MirMAKOfficial

[Mir Mohammad Alikhan @MirMAKOfficial]

The price #Iran is paying for standing up to #America

CEMENT Production
2 million tons BEFORE 1979
50 million tons 2019

COPPER
7000 MT 1979
245,000 MT 2019

ELECTRICITY
2300 GWh 1979
312,000 GWh 2019

STEEL
1.3 Million MT 1979
25 Million MT 2019

Sanctions work ? Lol

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

Essentially same (equally important) message on GCC fiscal sustainability from @IMFNews as in 2015, top chart from yesterday’s report and bottom one from a Oct 2015.

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#GCC “At the current fiscal stance, the region’s financial wealth could be depleted by 2034.” According to ⁦@IMFNews⁩. #Saudi #Kuwait #UAE #Qatar #Oman #Bahrain https://t.co/uslO2cF5HK

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

Real estate prices declining, twin deficits, expensive exchange rate, divided ruling party, locusts ... worth acknowledging the forward looking risks alongside the formidable historic achievements. #Kenya

[Amb. Macharia Kamau @AmbMKamau]

Remarkable, exemplary growth rate twice as fast as the World average, twice as fast as Africa's average. This in a difficult global environment and key structural reforms being undertaken.Kenya’s GDP to Grow at 6% in 2020, AfDB Report https://t.co/vFH29AsYHS via @kenyanwalstreet

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Malaysia has the oldest leader (Mahatir) in our coverage of #emerging market countries, his (delayed) successor (Anwar) is in his 70s. Presumably there is hyperactive jostling for political influence below these two: risk for policy coherence & continuity https://t.co/SFqCkQyfi5

[frontieralpha.com @frontier_alpha]

#Nigeria remittances are a significant foreign exchange contributor and the US is the largest source so the new visa restrictions are unhelpful medium-term. My thoughts for @TellimerHQ

[Tellimer @TellimerHQ]

In our latest blog, we explain how the recent visa restrictions by US immigration could impact the Nigeria FX rate in the medium-term. Free to read here: https://t.co/wlVgKwagwN