Darren Frye

Husband 43 yrs, 3 ch, 11 gch, Christ follower. Ag Biz for 43 yrs, Markets for 43 yrs, CBOT Mem. Futures/options trading has significant risk of loss.

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

📣Public service announcement:

I have strong opinions and I am decisive.

I risk being wrong to be right.

Contrary to what you may have heard, I don't mind people disagreeing with me. I just ask that they be respectful and professional. I block those who are not!

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

(40) ???

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

How low can it go? #oil

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is “fully” open to commercial shipping and that large volumes of oil have been transported through the waterway in recent days, according to the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

Today's technology-led selloff, which has seen the KOSPI tumble 10% and the Nasdaq retreat below 30,000, has triggered broad-based risk reduction across asset classes, including industrial metals. The weakness has been particularly pronounced in metals linked to the energy transition and rising power demand, as investors cut exposure to cyclical growth themes.

#Aluminium has come under additional pressure from expectations that Middle Eastern supply may gradually recover following recent geopolitical developments. HG #copper, meanwhile, is down 2.7% and once again approaching key support around USD 6.15 per pound. The move highlights how even markets supported by constructive long-term fundamentals - including electrification demand, tight mine supply growth, and ongoing inventory drawdowns - remain vulnerable to sudden bouts of risk aversion and broader macro-driven liquidation.

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

@benaprice00 I know but the market will need that long!

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

Agree! Vegetative growth needs bright sun with warmer and drier weather patterns. Just the opposite of what we are receiving currently. Reproductive phases need cooler temps with adequate moisture and bright sun. Current conditions won’t produce as large of a crop but we won’t know that for sure until November. #corn #soybeans

[Grains Gorilla @GrainsGorilla]

Based on EU weather and US weather outlook for July. Markets should be adding weather premium. Chinese demand is around for corn, wheat, and beans.

Markets are oversold and funds are short those with demand.

Not a good place to be short today.

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

“Art of the Deal”

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says its negotiating delegation will not return to the Switzerland talks until Trump personally apologizes for his threats today and Israel fully withdraws from southern Lebanon, with Iran's delegation plane already repositioned to Zurich ready to fly back to Tehran, per Al-Mayadeen.

This comes after Trump told Fox shortly before his Truth Social post that if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz "you won't have a country" and "you won't even make it BACK to your f**king country," as a direct assassination threat against the Iranian delegation.

[Gaurav kochar @gaurav_kochar]

🚨 India is running low on sugar reserves, and the 2026 monsoon has started on a weak note.

That combination could become a major inflation risk.

🌧️ Weak rains → lower sugarcane yields
📉 Tight sugar stocks → reduced supply
☕ Higher sugar prices → costlier chai, sweets, beverages, and processed foods

India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, so any significant production shortfall doesn't just impact consumers—it can ripple through food inflation and global sugar markets.

The next few weeks of monsoon rainfall are now critical.

If rains don't improve, your morning cup of chai may be the first place where the impact becomes visible.

Will the monsoon recover in time, or is another food inflation cycle already underway?

#India #Monsoon2026 #Sugar #Inflation #Agriculture #FoodPrices #ElNino #Economy 🚜☕📈

[Gaurav kochar @gaurav_kochar]

🚨 A potentially strong El Niño is now being projected for late 2026.

If these forecasts verify, India could face a challenging 12-month period:

🌧️ Jun–Sep 2026
• Below-normal monsoon risk rises
• Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Gujarat & parts of Central India could see rainfall deficits
• Sowing decisions may be delayed

🌾 Oct–Dec 2026
• Reservoir levels come under pressure
• Kharif output risks increase
• Food inflation starts creeping higher
• El Niño expected to peak globally

🌡️ Jan–Mar 2027
• Warmer-than-normal winter
• Wheat & rabi crops may face moisture stress
• Urban water management becomes critical

🔥 Apr–Jun 2027
• Elevated heatwave risk
• Record power demand possible
• Water shortages in vulnerable districts and cities

But it's not all bad news:

☀️ More sunshine = stronger solar power generation
⚡ Higher renewable energy output
📊 Advance forecasts allow better planning
🌾 Large foodgrain stocks can cushion supply shocks
💧 Better irrigation efficiency can reduce losses

The chain reaction to watch:

Monsoon Deficit → Lower Agricultural Output → Food Inflation → Water Stress → Heatwaves → Higher Electricity Demand → Slower Rural Growth

India has navigated strong El Niño events before, but preparation over the next few months could make the difference between a manageable challenge and a major crisis.

#ElNino #IndianMonsoon #Climate #Agriculture #India #Weather #Heatwave #WaterCrisis 🌧️🌾🔥

[Gaurav kochar @gaurav_kochar]

ZERO VESSELS PASS THROUGH HORMUZ AS IRAN-ANNOUNCED SHUTDOWN PARALYZES KEY OIL CHOKEPOINT

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

😂😂😂

[Benjamin Riensche @BenRiensche]

If Saskatchewan became the 52nd state, after Alberta, we would offer you the opportunity for @UNass52675 to rate this “94% Good to Excellent.” 😆

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP: IRAN MOU IS NOT FINAL, IF I DON'T LIKE AGREEMENT WE WILL GO BACK TO DROPPING BOMBS

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

So no deal after all?

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran rejects Trump's new claim to Axios that a deal will be signed "within the next few hours," calling it "out of touch with reality" given that nothing has been finalized and no agreement exists, especially after today's Israeli strike on Beirut, per Tasnim.

Iran's senior negotiating team member Marandi separately says "there will be no more negotiations for now."

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

@merlinscapital Desperation!!!! Cushing has no more than 2 weeks left.

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

There will never be a deal.

The Iran delays are tactics to regroup and rearm.

Trump's focus is on the stock market.

Another Vietnam is brewing.

Unfortunately.

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

@supreed @OGTCHedger 😂😂😂

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

@MStankowicz Yep - turns out supply don’t matter! Let’s take price lower and keep demand going.

[Darren Frye @Frye_WSS]

Say what……out of oil. Impossible!

[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The United States' main oil distribution hub Cushing is running out of oil, per CNN

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's new claim of a deal being signed tomorrow, saying the insistence on signing the deal on specifically Sunday is engineered around his own birthday, calling it a "propaganda event" that Trump is trying to turn into a unilateral "symbolic occasion" for himself, along with his UFC White House event, per Fars.

The Iranian negotiating team says it "will not permit such a media and ceremonial manoeuvre," explicitly stating that the memorandum of understanding has not been finalized and no signing will happen.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

6th largest crude draw in US history next week.

Since April 24, we will have 6 out of the 10 largest crude draws since 1982.

BACD

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Oil shorts at highs