A damning chart from a new paper by @AdeelMalikOx on Pakistan’s coming crisis.
Demonstrates vividly how far behind Pakistan has fallen in the last three decades.
You can read the paper here:
https://t.co/A5NAZJJeLU
Excessive taxation stifles growth and burdens hardworking salaried citizens . It's time to demand fair tax policies that support prosperity and justice for all. #TaxReform#FairTaxes#Economicjustice@CMShehbaz
کبھی کبھی کوئی نیوز سٹوری بزنس کے صفحات سے آزاد ہو کر پہلے صفحے پر بھی آجاتی ہے۔ میں نے بھی ابھی ابھی حال ہی میں پڑھا ہے کہ پاکستان کا تنخواہ دار طبقہ سارے سیٹھوں اور تاجروں سے مل کر دوگنا ٹیکس دیتا ہے۔
A fresh inflow of $4.2bn has significantly lifted sentiment. IMF’s program was one of a kind, custom-made to fit Pakistan’s current needs, and assisted with a political nudge to get this far. This shows how US and Gulf States consider Pakistan to be geopolitically too important and too big to fail and how Pakistan’s forces are woven with the latter’s security architecture. It also demonstrates how the world considers Rawalpindi to be more credible.
Sovereign Bonds
Pakistan’s sovereign bonds have rallied from 38% to 60% since the staff-level agreement. Important to note that the while the 2024 Eurobond trades at 80, the 2031 bond is bid at 48. These metrics suggest that the current IMF/Gulf bailout is a Band-Aid, and Pakistan still faces high default risk in the years ahead unless reforms are initiated at a war footing.
Stubborn Inflation
While Pakistan’s GDP growth seems to overtake the 2.5% projected by IMF, its inflation outlook of 25% for the current fiscal is not good news. If inflation stays elevated, interest rates may not go down any time soon.
Swaps
Swap points have rallied in tandem with sentiment with 1 & 3-month trading at around Rs 4 & 10, respectively … converting to around 15% annualized rate. While the higher swaps infer improved liquify, the delta between these and KIBOR (where the swaps should be) of 22% shows that the dollar is still in high demand. While the improved reserves are being cheered at the backlog of payments (imports, profit repatriation, etc.) estimated to be around $6bn, it will not allow Rupee to strengthen above its current levels.
Rupee Outlook
At the same time, elevated interest rates & a weaker Rupee’s impact on inflation will keep giving support to Rupee. With this, we reiterate our previous views that the Rupee will be range bound and anchored around the 282-285 level till the care take step up is formed.
There is still insignificant forward selling by exporters.
US Inflation
This week’s news on consumer inflation supports the case for expecting that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are approaching the end game. The basic calculus is that if disinflation persists, the odds rise that the central bank will pause its policy of tightening monetary policy.
Dollar Index
The dollar index fell below the 100 level for the first time since April 2022, and analysts expect it to drift further down. This will be a boost for precious metals & G7 currencies.
Dollar Outlook
The latest repricing of the market’s implied Fed rate path allowed other currencies to rally. Those currencies are the euro and the pound, with the divergence in expectations between the BoE’s and the Fed’s future course of action being the most prominent, as the former is seen delivering around 115bps worth of additional hikes. But reputable analysts are of the view that the market is underestimating the Fed’s ability to raise interest rates.
#KSE100 #Dollar #Gold #DollarPkr #Rawalpindi
A professional , member of @CA fraternity is missing.
A thorough gentleman and my ex colleague in Telenor.
A combined voice needs to be raised
#releaseomarnawazawan
Salaried class slapped for additional 2.5% by gov making it 37.5%. No tax on property tycoons, agriculture and retailers who make 60% of GDP.
Draconian injustice must end.
The rise of the Persian Gulf, and particularly Saudi Arabia, is already reshaping the Middle East. But it will also have powerful consequences across the world.
My take:
🧵1) 70% of the people leaving Pakistan move to either Saudi Arabia or the UAE
Saudi Arabia has a population of 36mn.
According to govt data 2.8mn people have moved to Saudi Arabia over the last 10 years.
The number is mind blowing 🤯
With 577 hours spent annually on tax payments, Pakistan endures six times the global average of 108 hours. The taxation system heavily relies on withholding taxes, limiting businesses' profitability and burdening transaction management.
#OICCI#taxation#businessdevelopment