Earl Wild plays his etude based on Gershwin "The Man I love" ...from this 1978 album... incredible beautiful piece that begins with left-hand alone (!) and I wonder if Wild could have been inspired in this by Godowsky's transcription for left hand alone of Chopin Etude Op 10 No 3
Andrej Karpathy thinks AGI's impact on the economy will just be folded into the existing rate of growth. AI will be barely noticeable in GDP statistics.
When he came on the show, I pushed back, saying AGI will cause a massive jump in productivity and growth.
Watch our back-and-forth on this:
Nassim Taleb sat down with Daniel Kahneman - two of the sharpest minds on risk ever - and the takeaway was blunt: stop trying to be smart
Kahneman's prospect theory explains why almost nobody can do what Taleb does
We're wired to hate the steady trickle of small losses his strategy needs - even when one huge win more than pays for all of them
So you structure it the other way: tiny safe bets plus a few wild ones, never the comfortable middle.
"You'd rather be antifragile than intelligent - any time."
"Trial and error is really just trial with small error."
"Make your gains in small bites. Take your losses all at once."
~1 hr, free. two legends on risk, prediction, and how to win without forecasting ↓
Claude 5.0 built a Chinese girl a trading bot.
skip to 0:08 look at her journal, bot easily earns your monthly salary in a couple of days.
how it works:
the bot runs mean reversion on s&p 500 and nasdaq on 15-min candles, catching the small overextensions indices make every few hours. on bitcoin it switches to momentum breakouts on the 1-hour crypto trends harder than indices, so you ride the move instead of fading it. gold and oil get a slower trend-following layer on the 4-hour, because commodities move in cleaner waves and you don't want noise from intraday whipsaws.
position sizing is ATR-based per instrument, so a quiet day on gold gets a bigger size than a volatile day on bitcoin - risk stays constant even when volatility doesn't. every trade has a hard 1% stop, no exceptions, no "let me give it room." and there's a correlation filter on top: if s&p and nasdaq are already long, it won't pile into another risk-on asset and double the real exposure.
claude code writes and updates the logic. the bot just executes.
then claude cowork sends her two messages a day:
- 7am: what's happening in the market
- 9pm: how did the bot do
that's the whole job. two messages. five instruments. zero screen time.
manually she could only watch one chart at a time. this thing watches five. doesn't sleep. doesn't tilt. doesn't revenge trade at 2am.
what used to need a team of quants and a $200k bloomberg terminal now runs on a laptop and claude.
And your friend is still trading manually and is constantly in the red.
save this and read the article in the comments below to write your own bot using Claude
1/n
A physical book is a real object, anchored. If you read a particular edition, you remember not only the contents but the object itself: its cover, typography, smell, even where a passage sat on the page.
Books organize themselves in memory by place --the ancient method of loci.
Digital text does not exist.