synastassy

[৻ꪆ @laprimeveres]

checking in on tiktok

[Rocky @viperwave]

The Quebec dub has the police officer not understand Bart because of his accent lol

[doomer @uncledoomer]

the tiny domesticated dog runs free while his wild wolf brethren pace the enclosure. much to think about as i log into microsoft teams this morning.

[Lekhvir @kazhakdum]

"Tindr"

[Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 @JeremiahDJohns]

Truly we live in a blessed time for Discourse

[leah @kmewisfc]

no dad, owning a successful lesbian covid conscious bar in western mass was YOUR dream. I’M going to clown school

[Gilles Raveaud @RaveaudGilles]

Accident publicitaire dans "Le Figaro" ce matin.

En deux temps.

Page 20, un superbe article sur cette histoire qui ridiculise tout le monde "littéraire" parisien.

Suite...

[Emma-Kate Symons @eksymons]

The scandal of the Paris literary season blew up today with mounting evidence star début novelist, Haitian Canadian Thélyson Orélien, already in receipt of book prizes, has been plagiarising for years: from books and articles, until he seems to have produced his book via AI ✍️

[threadass🪡🥨 @disco_martini]

👇

[Juliette Briens @JulietteBriens]

On constate, sur Facebook, que le malaise était déjà présent depuis plusieurs semaines parmi les communautés de lecteurs assidus.

Et sans Pangram..

[Visenya Targaryen @nameless_str4y]

Oh, she was there, she was witnessing history.

[Limerence @lalita0616]

Necesito descargar este video y hacerlo sticker diosmio

[aaryan @blondedicarus]

funniest tweet of all time

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

Cancel French debt held by the ECB? Why stop there if there is no cost to canceling ECB-held sovereign debt? The Banque de France could simply buy all of the French outstanding sovereign debt and cancel it.

If the BdF buys the entire €3.5tn stock, it funds the purchase with €3.5tn of reserves.** The debt isn't cancelled. It's been converted from ~8-year fixed-rate debt into overnight floating-rate debt. You haven't retired the liability. You've shortened its duration dramatically.

[**A thought experiment.The BdF can't do this, at least not when France is in the Eurozone.]

If you then canceled the debt, the BdF no longer earns any coupons on all the debt it had bought, but it's still paying interest on all of reserves held at BdF, which it issued to fund the purchases. The BdF isn't just paying the interest on reserves French banks happen to hold. It's also paying interest on that TARGET-2 liability to the Eurosystem. Without any coupon income from its bond holdings. Negative carry on €3.5 tn. That does not seem like a great plan. Maybe this is not a free lunch?

Back to reality. Roughly 90% of the Eurosystem's French government bond holdings currently sit on the Banque de France's own book. Only about 10% was bought by the ECB itself, and that slice is the only part subject to risk sharing .

So take the hypothetical €600bn held by the Eurosystem (illustrative numbers):

~€540bn is BdF's, at BdF's risk. France cancelling it is France forgiving itself. Zero net gain, and BdF's equity absorbs the whole hole. Now, you could recapitalize the Banque de France. That's going to cost French taxpayers. Or, if you don't (risky move), the French Treasury receives no dividend from the BdF for decades. Either way, there is cost to French taxpayers that offsets the benefit of lower coupon payments on the bonds.
~€60bn is the ECB's. Losses there are distributed by capital key. France's key is roughly 20%, so France would bear ~€12bn and the other members ~€48bn.

The only way this cancelation proposal makes any fiscal sense is if the BdF stops paying interest on reserves at BdF, mostly held by French banks. Otherwise you lock in negative carry for the BdF. But if you do that, that's a dramatic tax on French depositors and savers. That's what economists call financial repression. (And you've essentially monetized the debt).

Actually, France no longer even has this instrument because the reserve remuneration is decided by the ECB Governing Council, and it applies to the whole Eurosystem. If France did try to do something like this, banks would move their reserves to the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and France would end up with an even larger Target-2 liability.

During COVID, central banks were running huge balance sheets without articulating the trade-offs that are involved. And ex post they were framing any inflation that resulted as supply shock-driven without compelling evidence. If you do that, people might just believe you. They might really think that there are no trade-offs even if they should know better.

And, of course, this proposal violates a bunch of treaties and rules and regulations and laws. Art. 123 TFEU is the monetary financing prohibition. There is no separable "ECB tranche" to cancel. Those bonds are fungible with every other bond in the same series. So any cancellation would be a restructuring of the debt.

[Sébastien Lecornu @SebLecornu]

Vous parlez de « chantage ». Non. Un budget, c’est le travail du Parlement.

Un député n’est ni un commentateur ni un lanceur d’alerte permanent. Il est élu et indemnisé par les Français pour examiner les textes, les amender, négocier et, ensuite le cas échéant, les voter ou non. Annoncer la censure avant même d’avoir travaillé le projet proposé, ce n’est pas faire son travail : c’est déserter.

Et quant à “foutre au feu » 600 milliards d’euros de dette, c’est de l’escroquerie à l’état pur.
Revenons à quelque chose de simple : lorsque vous empruntez 100 euros et décidez de ne pas les rendre, vous n’avez pas créé 100 euros. Vous avez pris 100 euros à celui qui vous les avait prêtés.
En l’occurrence les intérêts de la dette détenue par la Banque de France et perçus par celle ci sont reversés au Trésor public sous forme de dividendes. Autrement dit ce que vous proposez ne rapporte rien.

En revanche cela détruirait l’actif le plus important de notre pays, la confiance.

Une dette n’est jamais un papier sans propriétaire. C’est un acte de confiance de celui qui prête envers celui qui emprunte et à qui il confie son patrimoine, c’est-à-dire souvent le fruit de son travail.

Si la France, qui doit lever 310 milliards d’euros cette année, reniait sa propre signature qui nous prêtera encore ? Au mieux les prêteurs - s'ils acceptent de prêter encore - exigeront des taux prohibitifs. Le crédit des familles et des entreprises suivra. La confiance et l’épargne seront fragilisées. L’économie souffrira.

Au pire, l’accès de l’Etat au crédit sera coupé et il devra recourir à des hausses massives d’impôts sur tous les français et à des coupes brutales. Dans les écoles, les hôpitaux, la sécurité, l'écologie, la défense, les collectivités. Les plus fragiles seraient les premiers frappés.

Il n’y a que deux catégories de gens pour formuler une telle proposition : ceux qui pensent s’enrichir en spéculant contre la dette française et ceux qui veulent détruire la zone Euro.

Pas étonnant que les cyniques s’assemblent dans une oeuvre commune de démolition.

Un budget n’est pas un chantage. La dette n’est pas un tour de magie. Et les députés ne sont pas les spectateurs de la République : ils ne peuvent pas provoquer le désordre, puis le commenter.

[KINA @KINA2_2]

Hot take maybe idk but a queen with « basic gay references » that has so much fun with drag is a hundred times more interesting of a winner than a fake poetic buzzwords queen who claims to be so deep but isn’t actually of as much substance than they claim to

[MBK @mbrask_]

Il y a 47% de gens en plus dans cette filière à la DGFIP que chez Open AI monde (ChatGPT). Est-ce qu’on se rend compte de la dinguerie catastrophique que l’on finance ?

[raul ‘maria’ gatti @10lettante]

souvent imité...

[Jacob Titus @jacob__titus]

Greg Girard is one of the great photographers of our time. That he spends time sharing his archive and memories here is such a gift.