The more price data I analyse, the more convinced I am that #Bitcoin is following the #GOLD super-cycle.
I believe it’s unlikely we’ll see another -77% crash like previous bear markets. Instead, I expect mini-bear markets within a broader macro uptrend, supported by the 50/100/200 Week EMAs—much like gold has experienced.
If the USA adopts a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), deep -77% crashes of the past become far less likely. There would simply be too much demand front-running a guaranteed buyer of immense magnitude. BTC’s holder base has changed—it’s no longer the same players as before.
As BTC matures, it should behave less like a risk-on asset (Nasdaq/tech stocks) and more like gold—a flight-to-safety and risk-off asset.
For now, we’re still in the adoption phase, and traders continue treating BTC as a risk-on asset through their correlation algos in the short term - which is opportunity.
You can have a 30% win rate and still be profitable.
It’s not about how often you win in trading—it’s about how much $$ you win when you’re right and how much $$ you lose when you’re wrong.
You can be wrong in the markets more than you’re right and still make money.
That’s why managing your losses is essential—your winners will take care of themselves.
Losing is just part of the statistical game of extracting profits when you understand your system’s expected performance.
Systematic, backtested trading provides mental clarity.
It’s just Risk:Reward.
We are seeing some of the highest amounts of liquidations to the upside that I’ve seen in a very long time.
Currently, there are over $11 BILLION in liquidations that would occur if the market pushes toward $111,000.
Why is this a good thing?
Well, you all know that I believe there are LIZARD PEOPLE who control these markets and have the facilities to amplify or cause moves in either direction to force people into liquidation.
With that in mind, in a situation like this—where so many people expect the market to go down, yet most market structure suggests we are still healthily in a macro bullish trend—it actually looks like a strong signal to me.
This signal suggests that there is now a very real opportunity for Bitcoin to start squeezing some of these short traders out of their positions with a little amplification from the lizard people.
Of course, this isn’t a guarantee, but history shows a strong tendency for this market to rally when liquidations to the upside build past $9B+ on the 30D.
So what am I doing?
Well… still nothing, but I am more excited… lol.
At the end of the day, we are still in an HMZ (High Manipulation Zone), and while we remain here, we are at constant risk of fake-outs and liquidity hunts in either direction. Knowing this, I’m not going to take any risks that could lead to big losses while we are still in the HMZ.
I’ll continue my basic DCA strategy on red days and won’t make any other moves until we see more evidence that the HMZ has been broken.
On the bright side, if we can push to $110K and liquidate all these short traders, we could definitely be on track for a potential breakout of this HMZ.
However, I’m just not sure if the market will make that climb without news or a catalyst. The market is extremely reactionary right now, and without many catalysts on the horizon, we could be waiting a while before seeing any real attempt at squeezing these shorts.
Did $TRUMP top the #altcoin market? 🤔
Nothing grabs attention like the U.S. president launching a memecoin on Solana. And attention tops markets. So what’s next? 👀
Narratives drive markets. Watch for altcoins building re-accumulation ranges and failing to break lower.
The deeper the capitulation, the better the Risk:Reward for traders. Right now, we’re seeing a classic retest of the liquidation wick on Total 3.
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Bitcoin is still balancing right now beween the bearish and bullish fibonacci golden zone.
What it does here is gonna be VERY implicative of what the next weeks for BTC look like and very possibly could lead us out of the HMZ.
Knowing how important this move is, I am still in wait and see mode with basically my entire portfolio, hence why I havent made any moves the last few days.
In addition to this, we are kicking off the merge right now for the school which will last about a week as we have to combine over 3,000 students into one place. WHILE that is happening, I also have my bachelor's trip coming up tomorrow so I am heading out of town tonight.
So a ton of things happening in the backend right now so I am not too mad that we are in a boring watch and see phase for BTC.
Will keep you all updated as much as possible over the coming days while I am out of town!