FukDaBS

Eighteen months ago Gemini was worth four billion dollars. Now it's worth seven hundred million. That's an eighty-two percent drop. The investor letter didn't use the word "drop." It used "recalibration." Recalibration means the number changed but the confidence didn't. The letter used that word fourteen times. Fourteen times in eleven pages. Nobody flagged the repetition. Repetition is how you make a word true. Three C-suite executives resigned last quarter. The COO. The CFO. The Chief Legal Officer. On the same day. A Tuesday. The press release called it a "leadership realignment." Realignment means the leadership left and the word "left" was too honest. Two of the resignation letters used the same font. The third used Times New Roman. That was the CFO. He always had to be different. That's probably why he left. Nobody on the board used the phrase "red flag." They used "transition." Transition is what you call a red flag when you're still holding shares. Expenses grew seventy percent last year. Revenue grew seventeen percent. Both of those are growth. The earnings deck led with that. "Gemini delivered growth across both revenue and operational investment in Q4." Operational investment means spending. Spending means the money left. But "growth" was in the sentence twice so the board nodded. The Winklevoss twins sold twelve thousand Bitcoin last quarter. Out of twenty-three thousand. Fifty-two percent. In batches. Over six weeks. Through three different custodians. The spokesperson called it a "portfolio decision." A portfolio decision is when the founders sell half the asset the company is named after and nobody is supposed to notice. The Chief Strategy Officer found out from CoinDesk. He is the Chief Strategy Officer. The strategy did not include him. Gemini is exiting the United Kingdom. And the European Union. And Australia. The internal memo called this "optimizing our geographic focus." Geographic focus means: places where the regulators haven't finished reading the audit. The UK has the FCA. The EU has MiCA. Australia has ASIC. These are regulatory bodies. Regulatory bodies ask questions. Questions require answers. Answers require the CFO. The CFO resigned on a Tuesday. So Gemini is optimizing. The London compliance team was eleven people. They were thorough. They asked a lot of internal questions. They were very aligned with the regulators in that way. They were realigned. Into unemployment. With four weeks' severance. Denominated in dollars. Not in the cryptocurrency they spent two years trying to make compliant. Two of them posted about it on LinkedIn. The posts used the word "grateful." Grateful is the word you use when you can't use the word you want to use. Gemini is pivoting. The new product is called Gemini Predictions. It's a prediction market. Ten thousand users. Twenty-four million dollars in trading volume. Users bet on outcomes. Elections. Sports. Whether a company will hit its earnings. It is a gambling app. The pitch deck calls it "strategic diversification." Strategic diversification means the first strategy failed so now there's a second one. The deck uses the phrase "decentralized outcome markets." Decentralized means Gemini still takes the fee. Outcome markets means gambling. "Leveraging blockchain infrastructure for transparent prediction ecosystems." Transparent means they can see the bets. Ecosystem means they get a cut. Prediction means gambling. Blockchain means it's legal. Polymarket has four hundred thousand active users and over a billion in monthly volume. Gemini Predictions has ten thousand users and twenty-four million. That's 2.5 percent of the users and 2.4 percent of the volume. The pitch deck calls this "second-mover advantage." Second-mover advantage means letting someone else make the mistakes first and entering with a better product. Gemini is entering with the same product and fewer users. That is not second-mover advantage. That is just second. The expenses-to-revenue gap is still growing. The three executives who understood the books are still gone. The twelve thousand Bitcoin are still sold. Three continents are still exited. The compliance teams are still unemployed. The prediction market still has fewer users than a mid-tier Discord server. But the pitch deck has a gradient. Blue to purple. The gradient is supposed to convey growth. The next investor letter is due in six weeks. It will use the word "recalibration." Probably not fourteen times. Probably fifteen. Because the number that needs recalibrating got worse. And the word that covers it didn't.

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FukDaBS @fukdabs

5 months ago

@seanperrywins Man....could really use a blessing. 🙏🏻🙏🏻

FukDaBS @fukdabs

5 months ago

@pebbles_hl @DeItaone OR....they, jpm, are setting up the giant fleece.

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FukDaBS @fukdabs

5 months ago

@bennyjohnson @Timcast Umm...no she didn't demand anything. She clearly states she has left all that 'muck' behind. Listen better Benny.

fukdabs retweeted

Matt Kohrs

@matt_kohrs

5 months ago

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