Full Port

@gmoneynft and @hunterorrell live every tues & thurs at 10:30am et

[Full Port @fullportshow]

hunter on the trap of copying another trader's book

“don't look at another person's P&L and be like, damn, I wish I was that guy”

“you're probably late to the trade already if he's positioned that way and you're not”

“I know there are people trading orange juice and coffee and, you know, metal futures and stuff. And they're making more than I'm making every year”

Copying a position means inheriting the entry without inheriting the reason.

He names his own circle plainly, and names what sits outside it just as plainly.

Someone else out-earning him in a market he does not know is not an argument to enter it.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

gmoney replays the friday morning a cnbc segment turned his best day into a loss

“9.16, my P&L goes from, like, up a bunch to down a shit ton”

“David Faber came on to CNBC saying, oh, Disney, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Microsoft”

“my first thought, like, in these situations, like, limit risk right away”

The clock matters, because everything that follows happens inside four minutes.

The news was a takeover rumour naming every conglomerate at once, against his short.

He closes first and analyses second, on the grounds that he can always re-enter.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

kbm on the switch from trading alone to running a company of sixty

“As a trader, it was more of a lone wolf lifestyle that I was leading”

“I'm not following people's calls ever, super independent in that regard”

“when you come to work in a business, like, managing people, being on teams, having people rely on you”

Even on a desk with a headset open, the decisions stayed his own.

Independence is the habit that a company then asks him to unlearn.

Sixty people is a different job, and he calls the switch a vibe change rather than a promotion.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

gmoney thinks a well funded scammer would just buy the top of the leaderboard

"If I was a well funded scammer, I would pay whatever it is to get to the top of the leaderboard."

"Have it run up, and off that $100,000 you can make a couple hundred grand, a couple million."

"We see people that are rugging at a hundred K market cap."

He's careful to say he doesn't know enough about the mechanism yet and that the design has clearly been thought about.

His worry is the incentive. If attention is purchasable, someone will buy it and use the audience as exit liquidity.

The math is what makes it dangerous. People already rug at a hundred thousand, so the cost of entry here is nothing.

And having money makes it easier, not harder. You don't need a hundred small ones. A couple of big ones will do.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

hunter's team tracks every wallet that buys a token and what it sold to get there

"When we find a token that is starting to pop off, we look at every single wallet."

"What did they sell to fund their purchase of that?"

"When they're starting to sell that token off, what are they rotating into?"

He's talking about a flows tracker built at the blockchain company that runs alongside Lute, and he jokes about the heat he'll take for saying it out loud.

The interesting part isn't the buy. It's what got sold to pay for it, and where the money goes when the position comes off.

That includes the top holders. Someone who just ran up a ten thousand dollar win is about to put that money somewhere.

Follow enough of those moves and you stop looking at one token and start seeing the map.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

gmoney says the trader's job is to change the thesis when the story changes

"I just didn't listen to my gut and I should have."

"When new information comes out, are there people that got in at a better price? Sure."

"When the story changes, your thesis has to change."

He passed on the entry he wanted and now has to decide what to do with a higher price.

The regret is real. He had the read, he didn't act on it, and it would have been filled in the high teens.

His way around the anchor is to look at what the earlier buyers actually took on. A better price usually meant more risk, whether they knew it or not.

So he refuses to trade against his own information. New facts, new thesis, even when it means paying up.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

hunter applies not your keys not your coins to private market SPVs

"The SPV side, you can get screwed so many different ways on them."

"We know this is not your keys, not your tokens."

"SPVs are very, very similar to this."

Crypto learned this lesson the expensive way. He thinks private markets are running the same setup without the same scar tissue.

Until the shares are actually in your control, you are trusting a structure and the people running it.

He has passed on deals for exactly this reason, and had another investor come back later to say the money went to the wrong people.

The company was fine. The wrapper was the problem.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

gmoney thinks the name changes every cycle so nobody notices it is the same trade

"The bailout for 2008 was called TARP."

"They always call it something different."

"Yield curve control is like the end game for like where this all goes."

TARP, then QE, then Operation Twist. A different label each time.

Each version is also slightly different in the details, and that is the part that buys them time.

Market participants spend weeks working out what it actually is. By the time everyone agrees it was easing, it is already priced.

He thinks the destination is the same regardless of the name. Print what you need, buy your own bonds, hold rates down.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

hunter thinks being outside the top three is an advantage right now

"We have the best tech, it's just, we need to make it look prettier."

"On the social graph side, I think that's a solvable thing."

"It's almost good to not be in the middle of the war right now."

His diagnosis of his own product is not modest, it is specific. The engine is right, the surface is not.

The distribution gap he treats as solvable too, because he thinks he can see where the industry is heading on it.

Then the part most founders would never say out loud. He is glad he is not in the fight for first place.

Being outside the top three buys room to do things that would make no sense if everyone was watching.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

gmoney reads the full retrace as the market telling Treasury the size was too small

"The fact that we have now retraced the entire move yesterday means that the market's calling their bluff."

"They're probably going to have to raise the amount that they buy."

"Cryptocurrencies are like kind of designed for this."

The whole move from the announcement is gone. All of it given back.

He does not read that as bearish. He reads it as a demand for more.

If the answer is a bigger buying program, that is more easing, and more easing lifts anything with a fixed supply.

Gold moved first, the way gold usually does. Then the assets nobody can print more of.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

hunter says FOMO is running Robinhood's playbook backwards

"They're just running a reverse playbook of where Robinhood has gone."

"They're going crypto, perps, equities."

"They do not want to be seen as a gambling app."

Robinhood started in equities, added options, then arrived at crypto.

This one starts at crypto, adds perps, and works toward equities. Same destination, opposite direction.

The direction of travel is toward more mature assets, and he thinks that is deliberate rather than opportunistic.

It is also why the raises clear at the valuations they do. Nobody funds a pure speculation app at that level.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

gmoney watched a trader work from his phone in public and called it what it is

"Traders are the new celebrities."

"He's putting on trades from his phone."

"That's, like, bad opsec, in my opinion."

The status shift is real. Traders get recognised now in a way they did not before.

Which is exactly why he flinched at the scene. Size going on from a phone, in the open, with people around.

His own rule is older than the trend. Significant money never touched his phone, in any market.

The risk is not the app. It is everything around the person holding it.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

Full Port 8/21 Market News with @hunterorrell and @gmoneynft with guest @keyboardmonkey3 talking about current market meta and @yeet https://t.co/69Bk2p7RDo

[Full Port @fullportshow]

hunter says almost nobody actually uses the command line, and that is the whole opportunity

"I don't think many people were in the command line interface that much."

"I would say probably 90 plus percent of the users."

"A majority of the users are just on, like, the desktop or mobile UI for most AI applications."

The terminal crowd is loud and it is small. He thinks 90 percent of users never open one.

Everyone else is on a desktop or mobile interface, including the people doing agentic work.

He flags his own number as possibly high, but the direction is not in doubt to him.

Which means the product that wins is not the most capable one. It is the one that meets people where they already are.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

gmoney says yesterday's gold and crypto move was yield curve control, not a mystery

"They effectively are keeping rates lower by buying bonds."

"That means they're printing money."

"This is yield curve control is what the Bank of Japan has been doing for the past 30 years."

Gold ran and crypto followed. He does not treat that as a coincidence.

The mechanism is the bond buying. Hold rates down by force and you are printing, whatever the program gets called.

Japan has run this playbook for three decades. It is not new and it is not theoretical.

The point he keeps returning to is that it lets a government finance itself without paying the rate the market would ask for.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

hunter orrell reads a two word tweet as Robinhood coming straight for Solana's volume

"The tweet yesterday, just two words, Robinhood chain."

"Robinhood wants to absorb as much of the volume from Solana right now."

"We'll see a perps revolution and perps will become very big."

Two words was the whole post. He thinks that is the entire announcement.

The read is that Robinhood is going after onchain volume directly, and Solana is where that volume currently lives.

They have already shown they will list tokens for their own customers, which is the part most incumbents will not do.

And he thinks the next leg is perps. Not a niche product, a shift in where retail actually trades.

[Full Port @fullportshow]

Full Port 8/20 Market News with @hunterorrell and @gmoneynft https://t.co/TnCZy1KaeV

[Full Port @fullportshow]

Adam @Rhynotic says ten products are already built on top of FWA, and the forks are missing the point

"We've seen some forks. We've seen some on Robinhood, we've seen some on Solana."

"We've seen 10 plus products already built on top of it."

"Everyone's like, the hubris of thinking that you can save Ethereum."

The copies exist and he's relaxed about them. Every one of them trades something away, and he doesn't think any has what they have.

What he cares about is the layer above. Ten products building on top already, with more coming.

He took flak for the save Ethereum meme and he stands by it, mostly because he finds it funny.

The serious version underneath is simple. If people launched on mainnet and brought that activity back, it would do exactly what the meme says.