Japan is considering a $110 billion stimulus package and that's the reason bond yields are spiking right now. Japan already has insane debt at over 230% of GDP. When you're already drowning in that much debt announcing more spending without raising taxes or cutting anything else sends a clear message to the market that this government doesn't care about fiscal sustainability. Bond investors immediately lose confidence because they're thinking, how are they going to pay this back? So they demand higher yields to compensate for that risk.
The stimulus itself is focused on tax cuts, energy subsidies, and cost of living relief. This all sounds great but here's the problemyou're cutting taxes and spending more money while your central bank (the BoJ) is trying to normalize policy by raising rates. That's a contradiction. The BoJ wants to tighten monetary policy but the government is loosening fiscal policy. That forces the BoJ to keep rates low to avoid crushing the economy.
Here's where the real rates problem comes in. The BoJ's policy rate is 0.5% and that sounds positive. But inflation in Japan is running around 3%. So the real interest rate (nominal minus inflation) is actually negative 2.5%. That's the problem. When real rates are that negative, you're losing money by holding yen. If you deposit money in a Japanese bank earning 0.5% while prices rise 3%, you're down 2.5% in purchasing power. Nobody wants that. So investors pull money out of yen assets and buy other assets instead, where they actually earn real returns. The yen gets destroyed
So the stimulus package is actually guaranteeing that the yen gets weaker. A weaker yen means import costs go up food, energy, materials everything gets more expensive. The whole point of the stimulus was to help households with cost of living but the fiscal expansion is simultaneously destroying the purchasing power of the yen. It's counterproductive. You're giving people tax cuts with one hand and taking away their purchasing power with the other through currency depreciation and import inflation. That's why bond yields are rising, the market sees this and knows it's unsustainable.
1 week warning
Bitcoin Dominance is likely going to move higher in Sep/Oct.
As noted in the post below, ALTs tend to find tops against BTC in late August.
Liquidity will flow back to the king.
Typhoon Podul slams southern Taiwan with fierce winds, torrential rain & severe thunderstorms, battering areas along the central mountain range (Wind map via foreignersinTW)
Nah, this is really wild.
Every “good” feature Pumpfun has implemented wouldn’t exist without Bonkfun because it’s literally copypasta. They took bonkfun’s playbook to stay relevant because they were dying. If Bonkfun hadn’t raised the bar, Pumpfun would still be selfishly extracting without giving anything back to Solana.
Bonk started their journey by giving their token away through one of the biggest free airdrops in Solana history during the bear market. They gave away millions in grants and charity, all before creating Bonkfun, buybacks, or creator fees. That’s genuine intention and innovation.
Now pumpfun is suddenly pretending to care about community by copying bonkfun. All their paid KOLs are glazing them like they’re saints. How can you see this bs and think, “Wow, these guys really care about users, this is so bullish” lmao.
Ask yourself: who’s been building with real intention and giving from day one, and who’s just faking it to keep max extracting while clinging to relevance?
Who still hasn’t given you a single airdrop? Who only started “supporting” users, tokens, and the Solana ecosystem AFTER they had no other way to keep selfishly making money off you?
My friends please do not be so naive. Question things before you decide to invest your energy on what a paid KOL promotes. I don’t want you to blindly believe me, I’m just suggesting that you question things a bit more. Seek truth.
I’ve been part of Solana since day one, and I’m saying this from the heart because I care deeply about our community, about every Solana user, and about you. Keep your eyes opened.
This cycle feels like the biggest psyop/fever dream ever.
BTC is up 80% on the year, institutions are buying and the President of the United States shills it nonstop.
... Yet it still feels like no one outside of crypto is talking about it lol.
Heard NFT’s might be back!
Pretty cool that after 4 years of derugging a robot jpeg on Solana it’s back in the #1 spot ( by fp) this has been one of the hardest challenges of my whole life to date.
I think Taiyo was the first CTO in all of crypto if I’m not mistaken, definitely on Solana anyway. 🤝
My base case for those who don't get the nuanced view:
BTC.D rejected at 0.786 Fib Level (66%) just like it was rejected at 0.618 Fib level (60%) last year.
ALT/BTC is up because ETH/BTC is up
But ALT/ETH is bleeding
So ETH is better than ALTs.
Remember ALT/BTC pairs have found a local low every June from 2022-2025).
ALT/BTC rally will likely end by late August at the latest
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct
ETH/BTC higher low in Sep/Oct
ALT/BTC pairs lower low in Sep/Oct (could be beginning of Nov).
Hard to know if the next rally by BTC.D leads to a higher high even if ALT/BTC pairs put in a lower low (as it depends on how high the next higher low is for ETH/BTC).
Look at what ALT/BTC pairs did from July-August of 2017 and see how they still dropped to 0.25 by late October.
Look at how while ALT/BTC pairs are up, ALT/ETH pairs are down 40% since ETH "went home."
I could be wrong about any one of these views, but these are my views.
When something I posted above is inevitably wrong, you are welcome to post this receipt and laugh.
Also, I'm not talking about your alt.
.@bonkfun has accumulated nearly 47,000 $SOL in revenue in just under 2 months.
7.6% of all revenue goes towards buying $GP which all gen1/2 stakers get given on a daily basis.
This is our 3rd breakout product, 1st being the Taiyo launchpad which had a large % of the whole nft new mint game, the 2nd being @LiveBonk which handled launches for huge teams in the space.
And now @bonkfun.
A history of delivering quality products and rewards for holders.
We don’t tweet much on this account, but the work speaks for itself.