The Funds Garden

Investing information and views from a Canadian perspective. Should not be considered investment advice. What is growing in your investment garden?

[The Funds Garden @FundsGarden]

Canada's best personal finance and investment writer retires. https://t.co/vOuXpmdOmp

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

The average S&P 500 total return is 10% per year but the stock market has only performed within 2% of that number in 4 of the last 97 years. The highest annual return was +53% and lowest -44%. The lesson? To get the average return, stay diversified and hang on.

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

8 ways of making money:

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

"It’s not the things you buy and sell that make you money; it’s the things you hold.” -Howard Marks

Buying is easy

Selling is easy

Holding is the hard part

https://t.co/hjVaXQdRsR

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

The average age of the top 25 names in the S&P 500 is 42 years (being publicly traded)

Facebook is the youngest at 13 years

Coke is the oldest at 106 years

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

🚨The US stock market $SPY is now the 2nd worst out of 45 country ETFs since President Trump's term began in January. The US is down 14% versus the average country that's up 3.7%. Germany $EWG is outperforming the US by 25 percentage points.🚨

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

US Bear Markets & Recoveries since the 1800s

Averages:

- Decline: 36%
- Length: 25 months
- Real recovery: 80 months

Source: Goldman Sachs

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Country market cap to GDP

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

G7 country stock market returns YTD:

Germany +17.5%

Italy +17.1%

France +9.3%

UK +9.1%

Canada +2%

Japan +1.5%

US -10.4%

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

The equity market is currently near its most concentrated level in 100 years, per Goldman Sachs, $GS:

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

The sentiment shift is insane

The question is this:

Are ppl's actions going to follow thru w/their words?

I'm not sure we can trust sentiment surveys anymore but if it's even half as bad as ppl think we're going into a recession

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

The truth is, we were always destined to lose our disproportionate control of global manufacturing.

This didn’t start in 2001 when China joined the WTO.

This started in 1945, when WW2 ended.

All of Europe, Japan, and the Soviet Union was ruined in WW2.

The U.S. was the only country with idle manufacturing capacity to produce the world’s stuff.

And then, as the world rebuilt, we slowly and consistently began losing that advantage.

That’s the cold hard truth.

And we don’t attempt to get back most of this manufacturing because low level manufacturing is the most inefficient form of modern economic activity. We’d rather sell you M&A consulting at 40% net profit than Nike’s at 4% net profit.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

It’s easy to forget just how many 20% drawdowns we have had just in the past 5 years. We had the 28% decline in 2022, the 35% decline in 2020, and a 20% decline in 2018. In other words, every two years the market suffers a large drawdown, and it has come back every time (sometimes quickly and sometimes slowly).

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

What happens when you buy the stock market down 15% or worse?

https://t.co/2BsDmMre8G

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

Just to summarize what’s happened in the last few weeks:

They concocted this whole thing based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the global economy. They think manufacturing jobs will come back (they won’t). They think free trade made us poor, when it actually made us rich. They think the current account deficit is unsustainable when it’s a rounding error in our aggregate net worth and also accretive to our net worth. They think being the reserve currency is bad when it’s a sign that everyone wants to do business with us. And they think poor foreigners were taking advantage of us when we’re the richest economy in human history.

And to "fix" all of these "problems" they implemented the one policy idea that almost every economist alive says is bad.

And then when they implemented that idea they misunderstood the math behind the rationale and came up with numbers that were irrationally huge. So they had to backpedal.

And when bond yields moved a tiny bit higher they panicked and "fixed" all of this by making the numbers slightly smaller, but they clearly hadn't done the math again because the numbers are still way bigger than any economist would ever recommend they be. Then they patted themselves on the back because of intraday moves in stocks while an economic hurricane continues to barrel towards us because they have no idea what they’re doing.

Amazing stuff.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

All around the world, people are engaged in difficult labor to produce goods for American consumers.

And in exchange they get pieces of paper that we can basically print as many as we want of.

And yet some claim that we’re the ones getting ripped off.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

At 12:01 Trump's tariffs officially took effect.

Tariffs are now at their highest level in 100 years.

[The Funds Garden @FundsGarden]

Not much room to go lower in fear-and-greed index. Source: https://t.co/agYBSVHv9Z

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

How to Survive Chaotic Markets

https://t.co/8SCqGaHKzz

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

Trump inherited an economy with 3% inflation, 3% real growth and 4% unemployment

Plus a very real chance of a massive AI boom

And now he's put all of that at risk

I still can't believe he bungled things this badly 4 months in