FuturePr00fInv

Invest for the future.

[Jukan @jukan05]

TSMC Teams Up with Ibiden and Innolux to Push CoPoS — Reportedly Flooring the Accelerator in Glass Substrates

To meet robust AI chip demand, TSMC is not only ramping CoWoS advanced packaging capacity but has, for the first time, disclosed progress on its "glass substrate" technology. The company further signaled that the next-generation advanced packaging battle is gradually shifting from CoWoS to CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate), as it moves to build out a complete ecosystem ahead of the curve.

According to equipment-side sources, TSMC recently shared a "Glass Substrate Development for CoWoS" program with its supply chain. It has confirmed a partnership with ABF substrate giant Ibiden and panel maker Innolux to jointly validate the feasibility of introducing glass substrates into next-generation CoWoS advanced packaging. The aim is to address the warpage, thermal management, signal transmission, and power delivery challenges that loom over future large-die AI chip packaging.

At the same time, the move reflects rapidly intensifying customer demands around technical specifications and capacity, as well as mounting competitive pressure from Intel and Samsung Electronics. That pressure has finally pushed TSMC—long known for advancing R&D on a "cautious, not aggressive" basis—to step on the accelerator.

Glass substrates are viewed as a key technology for the "post-CoWoS era" thanks to their low warpage, low thermal expansion, high rigidity, and excellent signal and power-delivery characteristics. Supply chain sources say the three-way collaboration among TSMC, Ibiden, and Innolux, together with simulation validation, has shown that glass substrates can improve the package-warpage indicator COP (Chip on Package) by 16%, lower the effective coefficient of thermal expansion (Effective CTE) by 19%, and raise the effective modulus (Effective Modulus) by 31%.

On power integrity, resistance fell by 27% and inductance by 42%. Overall, introducing glass substrates can deliver a marked improvement in package performance (PKG Improvement).

TSMC nonetheless stressed that continued research and validation are still needed on glass thickness (Glass Thickness) and large-size CoWoS layout (Large-size CoWoS Layout). While full-scale mass production remains some distance away, this marks the first time TSMC has publicly disclosed joint glass-substrate validation results with Ibiden and Innolux—signaling that glass substrates have formally entered the industrialization-validation phase.

Industry observers added that the 16% COP improvement indicates package warpage is being effectively controlled. As AI GPU dies grow ever larger—with NVIDIA's GB200, GB300, and the now-ramping Rubin platform all expanding in package size—the importance of package flatness and warpage control has risen sharply. The performance glass substrates show in reducing warpage should help lift the yield and reliability of large packages.

In addition, the 19% reduction in SBT effective CTE shows improved matching between the glass material and the silicon die.

Today, silicon's CTE differs substantially from that of conventional organic substrates, making it prone to stress under temperature swings that can compromise package reliability. By contrast, glass has a CTE closer to that of silicon, which helps reduce thermal stress and mitigate cracking and solder-joint fatigue. The 31% gain in effective modulus means higher overall rigidity, providing better structural support. In particular, as HBM stack heights keep increasing, substrate rigidity is becoming a critical condition for supporting large packages.

The test sample TSMC used this time featured a 0.8mm glass core substrate, a package spec of 5x reticle CoW, and an overall package size of 85×110mm—an AI GPU package-class footprint. TSMC specifically emphasized "No SeWaRe (severe warpage) & Delamination," meaning no severe warpage or delamination/peeling—both yield killers—occurred during testing.

For glass substrates, material bonding reliability has always been a key challenge, so maintaining a stable structure at large package sizes demonstrates considerable progress in technical maturity.

Another focus of the program was the comparison between Glass-SBT and Organic-SBT. TSMC noted that Glass-SBT achieves "thin but better COP," whereas Organic-SBT shows "thick but worse COP"—glass substrates can stay thinner while simultaneously improving package flatness and reliability.

The partner roster also hints at the direction of the future supply chain.

Ibiden currently sits in the critical substrate supply chain for NVIDIA and AMD AI chips and is regarded as a key player in industrializing glass substrates. It previously announced a ¥500 billion investment to expand its new Ono plant in Gifu Prefecture, dedicated to high-end packaging substrates for AI servers—underscoring its strong ambitions in the AI advanced-packaging market. Innolux's inclusion on the partner list is likewise seen as an important step toward staking out the next-generation glass-substrate battlefield.

Industry sources say the biggest challenge for glass substrates is not the glass itself but Through Glass Via (TGV) technology. Because glass is fundamentally an insulator, tens of thousands of TGVs must be formed to create vertical conductive paths before signal and power transmission becomes possible.

Glass is also both hard and brittle, making it prone to micro-cracks during processing that can affect reliability and yield. As a result, via forming, copper-fill quality, and long-term thermal reliability are considered the three core hurdles to mass-producing glass substrates.

Separately, Intel began investing in glass-substrate R&D more than a decade ago and is regarded as the earliest and deepest player globally. Its glass-substrate pilot line in Arizona is gradually moving toward commercialization, and Intel is aiming to win AI GPU and ASIC customer orders through glass substrates and ultra-large chiplet packaging.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics (Semco) established a glass-substrate pilot line in 2025 and has set up a joint venture with Japan's Sumitomo Chemical group to build out a glass-substrate supply chain ahead of the market.

$TSM

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

But Bubble Boi says it is impossible, so it must be that $TSMC engineers got scammed by PLP suppliers

Maybe people need to understand that wafers will still be round. What changes is the PACKAGING

You make dies on a round wafer, which is then diced into individual chips. After that, you package those chips on panels

Before, you would use a round 300mm silicon wafer to make interposers. But when you place large square or rectangular interposers on a round wafer, you waste a lot of area near the edges

If you package on a rectangular panel, you process more packages per batch, creating less edge waste, better area usage, and a lower cost per package

Nobody ever talked about rectangular wafers. This is about panel-level PACKAGING

[Irrational Analysis @insane_analyst]

Checked overnight market. Damn lol.
Guess I need to stay up another hr to push leverage in premarket.

Prob size up WOLF and AAOI. Re-enter Enphase. Maybe re-enter NVTS.

Concerned dumb ppl falling for Navitas CEO TAM bullshit. Their SiC is garbage. Only GaN portfolio of value.

[mark @cherryPayment]

需要说明的是这是我今年今年最干净的一篇玻璃相关的文章！

我认为他说对了三件事情同时也讲清楚了玻璃所要面对的问题。

1. 首先我们需要明白TGV也就是玻璃通孔是玻璃基板量产的第一道物理关卡���因为他同时满足了俩个条件结构上不可绕过和良率的敏感程度

在结构上，玻璃芯基板只要还是”玻璃芯居中、上下增层”的三明治架构，��直导通就绕不过去，这个是由物理拓扑决定的，不是工艺选择。而良率上，一块基板几十万个孔，是典型的串联良率结构：单孔良率哪怕 99.99%，几十万孔连乘下来整板良率也会被压得很低。这种”单点缺陷整板报废”的环节是真正决定爬坡速度和成本曲线的地方。

2. TGV的稀缺性是由于其跨学科的难度决定的，这意味着你需要同时满足激光+ 蚀刻的选择性 +玻璃材料学+ 高速重复的可靠性这四个方面。

3. 则是钱的流向，我也赞同你的看法认为资金会更早流向设备和原料因为有三个 “提前”

营收的提前：这个很好理解，因为基板厂建线要先买设备，所以设备商先收到订单、先确认收入。

股价的提前：二级市场给设备股的钱，从来不是给”已确认的营收”，是给营收的预期斜率。

筹码的提前：这个解释起来也很简单，总的来说就是市场倾向先买”纯度高、弹性大、市值小”的标的，因为同样的资金量能打出更大的价格位移。设备/材料环节往往就是那个”纯度高、盘子小”的位置，所以筹码面上也是它先被买。

对于他四分法这个框架，我觉得对得不能再对………他真的很了解这个行业🤣 我认为比我强不少……我以上的看法也只是一点点补充，可能都称不上补充因为真的很小。

我还是觉得 $lpk会有一番很好的未来，如果按照这个逻辑我想资金更早流向设备再到设备里只��� TGV 是真瓶颈，然后就是TGV 里激光+化学两段式是主流路线，LPKF 在最前排，但要确认 LPKF 的收入纯度、订单结构、客户绑定，才能从”位置对”走到”标的能买”

谢谢你的推荐 真的学到了不少

[RJC @RJCcapital]

Morgan Stanley: “Optical Content Growing. Regardless of Architecture.”

Morgan Stanley’s latest optical report pushes back on the idea that the CPO vs. NPO debate changes the broader demand trajectory for optical content. The core argument is that investors may be over-indexing on architecture timing, while the more important variable remains bandwidth growth. Whether the market ultimately scales through pluggable optics, NPO, CPO, OBO, or hybrid architectures, the need for higher bandwidth should continue to drive more optical engines, lasers, and related content per GPU/rack.

The report acknowledges that CPO adoption has meaningful timing and execution uncertainty. Packaging complexity, lower yields, troubleshooting difficulty, ecosystem immaturity, and customer reluctance around serviceability all remain real constraints. That is why Morgan Stanley frames the current debate less as a question of whether optics wins and more as a question of when and through which architecture the industry scales.

Importantly, the report still points to optical content rising materially as AI networks move from current architectures toward copper/CPO hybrid and eventually fuller CPO configurations. Morgan Stanley estimates optical engines per GPU increase substantially across each step of that architecture transition, with the demand driver tied less to a specific design choice and more to the underlying bandwidth requirement.

The market reaction in optical names appears to reflect concern that slower CPO timing could delay the upside case. Morgan Stanley’s framing is more balanced: conservative assumptions on CPO timing may keep stocks away from the most aggressive bull cases for now, but the underlying content expansion remains intact. For $LITE, $COHR and $GLW, the debate is not whether AI infrastructure requires more optics, but how quickly that demand converts into revenue as architectures evolve.

[Jeff Pu @sssjeffpu]

Abstract of “Passives: AI to Boost High and Low”

* Driven by AI and the recovery of automotive/industrial.
we expect the cycle to be potentially stronger than the peak levels seen in 2018 and 2023.
* AI will lengthen the lead-time and lower the yields, leading to >3x capacity consumption (i.e., low/high-cap MLCCs ~6/~25 days with yields of 99.5%/95-98%, vs. AI’s MLCC >50 days with yields of ~50%).

Key data
l   # of capacitors to increase from ~300k in GB200 NVL72 to ~550k in VR200 NVL72
l   AMD and/or ASIC’s content will increase by ~50% for the next generation
l   # of resistors to increase significantly to ~50k in VR200 NVL72.
l   Spot price: We’ve seen 104 price increase by >3x in past 3 weeks, 106 rose by >2x. As a comparison, the spot-market for certain products surged by as much as 20x at peak levels in 2018.
l   Price raise for ODMs started for consumers and servers: We expect low-cap prices (i.e., 102-104) for ODMs to be up by 5-100% in 3Q26, followed by 15-30% for higher-cap 105/106 Industrials/servers in 4Q26.
l   Resistors to kick off price hikes in 3Q26, likely ~50% for ODMs

#MLCC #MURATA #Taiyo #Yageo

[Irrational Analysis @insane_analyst]

Well that was fast.

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

村田製作所 murata
2026/03/10

① TFLN※3 EO Modulator
具備超過100GHz EO頻寬※4的光收發器及CPO用光調變器。可對應400Gbps/ch PAM4※5，支援1.6Tbps以及未來3.2Tbps的高速通信。
※3 TFLN（Thin Film Lithium Niobate）：薄膜化鈮酸鋰。作為以超高速、低耗電調變光訊號的次世代光通信技術適用的材料而備受期待。
※4 EO頻寬：電氣訊號轉換為光訊號時，可進行調變動作的頻率範圍指標。
※5 PAM4：使用4種不同訊號位準來傳輸資訊的調變方式。

② LTCC※6 Substrate
對應超過1.6Tbps光收發器及CPO的基板。
具備優異高頻特性，並抑制高溫環境下的變形，即使在溫度變化時也能實現穩定的光通信品質。 ※6 LTCC（Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramics）：低温同時燒結陶瓷。相較一般陶瓷可在更低温燒結，具優異高頻特性與可靠性。

③ Optical Sub-assembly
在LTCC基板上設置光波導、微透鏡或鏡面，實現高自由度零件配置，同時降低光纖與Photonic IC位置偏移所產生的耦合損失的概念產品。

④ Organic Electrical & Optical Substrate
在本公司獨家的薄型且可自由形狀設��的LCP基板上積層光波導層，可同時傳輸光與電氣訊號的概念產品。
https://t.co/5PEyDNGCAh

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

三星電機進軍矽電容器（Si-Cap）市場

三星電機（Samsung Electro-Mechanics）正式跨足矽電容器事業，積極挑戰日本村田與台灣台積電在該領域的主導地位。目前已與全球多家Big Tech洽談合作，主要鎖定AI伺服器電源穩定需求。

11日三星電機在首爾舉辦技術研討會，公開Si-Cap商業化路線圖。開發組長金元基表示，多家知名Big Tech正審核採用三星的矽電容器。公司已開始供貨，包括Marvell AI加速器、三星Exynos 2600應用���理器封裝，並與某全球Big Tech簽下史上最大單一合約——1.5兆韓元，預計2027年起貢獻營收。

矽電容器以矽晶圓為基底，透過微細孔洞結構實現超薄（100μm以下）高容量特性，優於傳統MLCC，能有效維持高性能半導體的電壓穩定。三星電機借鏡DRAM電容器技術，利用300mm晶圓生產，發揮其半導體微縮優勢。

策略上，三星電機採「design-centric」fabless模式，晶圓生產委託foundry、後段封測委託OSAT，自身專注設計與驗證。同時推出「Total Solution」，結合Si-Cap、MLCC與封裝基板，提供一站式優化方案，這是其最大差異化優勢。

市場預估，矽電容器將以年複合成長率18%以上擴���，AI伺服器因功率密度提升成為最大動能。未來應用更將延伸至汽車、航太與光通訊。

三星電機社長張德鉉將Si-Cap定位為進軍AI市場的核心成長引擎，展現從被動元件大廠轉型高階半導體解決方案供應商的決心。

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Simple, the Trump admin cannot roll out new restrictions/export controls targeting China because the Chinese can/will retaliate

We are not in the H100 era, where the supply chain was largely concentrated in Taiwan/Korea/Japan

Becuz of shortages, Nvidia & hyperscalers have been forced to qualify Chinese suppliers, especially in the PCB supply chain and electrical components like transformers

China had a chokehold on optics (optical fibers and transceivers) from the beginning, and this is just getting amplified as optical content in DCs is increasing
Coherent CEO went to China with the Trump delegation, asking for InP for lasers
I want u guys to study the optical fiber preform supply chain, and who are the largest suppliers

Btw, Chinese exposure is also spreading to other parts of the AI supply chain
High end MLCCs use Dysprosium Oxide and China supplies most of it to Japanese producers
Tungsten ban from China is causing the prices of WF6 gases to shoot up

If PTFE is finalized for M9/M10 CCL, then Shengyi and Chinese PTFE suppliers will have a huge chokehold over Nvidia
Google is in talks with Envicool for the supply of cooling components
If diamond-copper composites are adopted as heat spreaders for GPUs, then China will establish a chokehold there as well, since most of the synthetic diamonds are produced there and China is at the cutting edge of this tech

I haven't even talked about the use cases of gallium, germanium, tellurium, antimony, bismuth, fluorine, terbium, yttrium, ferrite cores in the AI supply chain, and how China has a chokehold there

The Trump admin is constrained in a lot of ways and can't unilaterally export control stuff

[phase interpolator @phasentrpolator]

People interested in coherent lite as a scale up solution should follow this startup, they’ve done some interesting R&D out of UCSB

https://t.co/hkhUwmDQ0R

[SemiVision 🇹🇼 👁️👁️ @semivision_tw]

Optical interconnect is moving closer to the compute engine.

From FRO and TRO to LPO, LPO with CPC, and ultimately CPO, the direction is clear: reduce electrical signal distance, remove unnecessary DSP overhead, and improve power efficiency.

At 1.6T, power can potentially drop from 25W in full-retimed optics to around 7W with co-packaged optics.

For AI data centers, optics is no longer just a connectivity layer. It is becoming a core part of compute infrastructure.

#AI #DataCenter #OpticalInterconnect #CPO #LPO #Semiconductors

[LIWEI_TW Capital @LIWEI_TWCapital]

Manufacturing Core:

• TSMC（台灣積體電路製造）：https://t.co/rPM4b3t9mD（TWSE）TSM（NYSE）

OSAT:

• ASE Technology Holding
（日月光投控）：https://t.co/z2GjODutZF（TWSE）⬇️⬇️
$ASX : Your only shot for CoPoS supply chain if you don’t wanna tolerate Taiwan stock’s bullshit rules (NYSE）

• PTI（力成科技 Powertech Technology Inc.）：https://t.co/N76Aahx48d
• KYEC（京元電子 King Yuan Electronics）：https://t.co/Ah5YLBUI1v

Equipment & Materials Suppliers

• GPTC（弘塑科技 Grand Process Technology Corp.）：https://t.co/1VSbcWeiCx
• Scientech（昕泰科技 Scientech Corp.）：https://t.co/mJ9vU0PWpu
• Allring（All Ring Tech Co., Ltd. / 亞銳科技）：https://t.co/bG8Le4p36b
• Gudeng（鈞鼎���密 Gudeng Precision Industrial）：https://t.co/imXSZ4kzJ4
• C SUN（志聖工業 C Sun Mfg Ltd.）：https://t.co/Eip8y0D9g9
• GMM（鈞寶微機械 Gallant Micro Machining Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/Lje9dHzHyZ
• Group Up（群翊工業 Group Up Industrial Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/8xW13TPoVO
• APT（印能科技 AblePrint Technology Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/SEeQGEpq5Y
• GPM（鈞寶精密機械 Gallant Precision Machining Co., Ltd.）：https://t.co/YTCawbfdyM
• FAVITE（晶彩科技 Favite Inc.）：https://t.co/tGRkEbjn8g
• VisEra（晶相光 VisEra Technologies）：https://t.co/EvyQa2PU2y

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

"Chinese open source models are about to fall badly behind as Mythos level models employ anti-distillation."

This will age very poorly
Distillation has stopped being a capability driver for GLM, Deepseek, Moonshot
U can try v4, K2.7 & GLM 5.2 to test this

[Irrational Analysis @insane_analyst]

If a new/exotic technology is competing with capital, capital almost always wins.

New/exotic tech needs to be SIGNIFICANTLY better than the existing solution.

In the context of components within communication systems, that typically means noise performance.

[Jukan @jukan05]

Explain why panel-level packaging is the future in one picture:

[Jason's Chips @jasonschips]

Based on the evidence I see in the past week, the optical story has gotten better, not worse.

Scale-out CPO seem to be on track and pushing Lumentum’s revenue this quarter to the high end of their guidance.

Scale up CPO was never delayed, as it was always shipping with Feynman, not Rubin Ultra, in the first place.

And NPO does not cannibalize CPO. Instead, it cannibalizes the Kyber racks, making it purely incremental content for optics.

[TrendForce @trendforce]

TSMC's #CoPoS is moving fast, and the opportunities for Taiwan suppliers are taking shape. CoPoS replaces traditional round glass carrier with a square panel format, pushing utilization rates above 75%.
More on glass material development: https://t.co/Na9XtpNK8Q 🔗

[Damnang2 @damnang2]

$NOK

[Vikram Sekar @vikramskr]

🍪 TWiC: Controversial Packaged Optics (free)

A look into why Spectrum-X CPO is cruel and unusual engineering punishment.

And what that means for the future of CPO.

https://t.co/teNwh7wPXL