Future Thesis

I study Tesla, SpaceX, AI & autonomy in detail and share what I learn.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

People hear “1 terawatt a year” of AI chips. Here’s what that production ceiling actually unlocks.

Tesla and SpaceX have put about $16.8B on the table for phase one of that joint mega-fab - Terafab - and public filings have floated much larger multi-phase totals later. This is the opening cheque, not the max budget. They’re doing it because they need more AI chips than the world’s existing fabs will sell them!

The goal they talk about is 1 terawatt a year of new AI compute. That is a max annual production ambition, not day-one output and not a stockpile. @elonmusk puts today’s global AI chip production at about 20 GW/year. That’s where the 50× comes from. He has also said, roughly, that most of Terafab’s AI compute is for AI spacecraft, with a smaller share for Optimus on the ground.

What 1 TW/year unlocks in practice (rough useful-demand illustration):

~6.3 million orbital AI satellites per year (~75%)
~400 million Optimus robots per year (~20%)
~40 million Cybercabs per year (~2%)
and a smaller slice: ~1.5 million Supercharger sites with on-site inference (~3%)
Together, those are about 1 TW. One production ceiling. Most of it is orbital.

And that’s just one year of production.

Dirt is already moving in Grimes County, Texas (Gibbons Creek Reservoir area, east of College Station).

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@SawyerMerritt @Tesla This is such a welcome feature. Having Grok has been fun but it not being able to control the car features was really sucky. This now really completes Grok.

One thing which I’m sure they will work on is making it a little more snappy. The lag is still a tad bit long.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@jonclegg77 @JeebsTX @Tesla @SpaceX You have much better context of Jobs, I wasn’t around for a lot of his early days, but I think we’re going the same page when it comes to the impact of Elon. It’s pretty wild.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

Looks like Tesla is playing this one differently. Instead of hype then release, they seek to be keeping their cards close to their chest and waiting until the product is really for a wide release.

I’m all for this as an investor. Take your time and deliver gold when it’s ready and ignore all the drama and demand for progress updates.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@Tesla The public is slowly starting to wake up to the convenience and safety of FSD. I’m already starting to see it take place in my circle of family and friends.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@SawyerMerritt Keen to see if anyone notices anything meaningfully different. Hope we also get an update here in Australia!

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@DoctorJack16 Yea I would buy that and wrap in satin black.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@mikepat711 Dude I'm so cut about RAM getting expensive. my 4 year old macbook pro has 32GB of RAM and looking to get a new mac mini and the high RAM options are so freaking expensive.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@Teslaconomics Reminds me of a cute lil piglet.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@elonmusk So glad I got to watch this ship launch in person!

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@TheSonOfWalkley I own more $TSLA than POTUS 💪

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@kylaschwaberow A bit of alpha in here, the avg person is not paying attention to these bread crumbs.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@tslaming It's a shame that only the Cybertruck is compatible at this stage. But there are signs that the Y L may also be made compatible in the future.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@RobotaxiRadar It's kind of mind boggling that the vision for Cybercabs is likely to come true!

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@RobotaxiRadar It's starting to become a real ride hail network. Hopefully from the 3rd onwards we see some golden Cybercabs as part of the fleet in Dallas.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@WR4NYGov The avg person doesn't even understand SpaceX's business model.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@DennisCW_ I wish I could buy one in Australia. I rented one for a week through Turo when I was in California, and it was the best Tesla I've driven to date.

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@tslaming For anyone interested here is a video of Ashok explaining how they use this system (around the 17min mark): https://t.co/0EWLQw4UM6

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

@SawyerMerritt @Starlink Such a cool way to win the good favour of your local community. Come build a base in Sydney please, I would love 50% off my starlink sub too 😜

[Future Thesis @FutureThesisX]

A lot of ppl have been attributing the lack of updates on Optimus to delays and Tesla being behind the competition but this will put a lid on that for those paying attention.

Note: For those who don't know @Jason is a friend of Elon, hence why he would have gotten a behind the scene peek into where Optimus is at.