indices gambler

My TG with crypto analysis| 100% WinRate | crypto | indeces | euro | xau

[EliZ @eliz883]

I want to share some thoughts with you from someone who knows a thing or two about economics and isn’t just here to spout nonsense for the sake of your followers… I’m a trader and, to some extent, an economist. In a nutshell, I’d like to make one recommendation: don’t just look at the stock prices; look at the real economy behind those valuations.

The stock market, in some cases, has now completely spiralled out of control. I’m not just talking about general hype, but a system where big names manage to create huge valuations simply by shifting assets, narratives and expectations from one company to another.

Take Musk, for example.

First, he buys Twitter for 44 billion. Then it becomes X. Subsequently, X is absorbed by xAI in a deal that valued X at around 33 billion in equity, 45 billion including debt.

Then comes SpaceX, which is currently being priced by the market at insane levels: the IPO has been reported to be valued at around 1.77 trillion dollars.

The point is simple: we are no longer just assessing actual turnover, profits and cash flow. Above all, we are assessing future expectations, the AI narrative, data, satellites, Starlink, xAI, X, robotics, space and everything the market imagines could become huge in the coming years.

But today, in practical terms, the truly strong and profitable part is Starlink. The rest is still very much based on promise, vision, assumption and extremely aggressive multiples. Indeed, some estimates point to Starlink as the main profit centre, whilst the group as a whole remains weighed down by enormous costs, investments and losses linked in part to the AI/xAI sector.

So bear in mind: I’m not saying that SpaceX is worthless. I’m saying that when a company is valued at nearly 2 trillion, you need to understand what is real today and what is already being priced in as a perfect future.

Because the market may well buy into dreams for years, but sooner or later those dreams must turn into real profits.

[EliZ @eliz883]

Only one thing could truly transform all the figures and assessments we see today.

In his most ambitious project, Elon Musk has repeatedly spoken of the possibility that, in the future, humanity might be able to exploit the immense resources found in asteroids: precious metals, rare earth elements, nickel, platinum and many other raw materials contained within the millions of celestial bodies orbiting in space.

If one day SpaceX were truly to make the extraction and transport of these resources to Earth economically viable, then yes, we could witness one of the greatest economic revolutions in modern history. Commodity prices would change, the relative value of precious metals would shift, and entire industrial sectors would likely be rewritten.

But today we are still in the realm of speculation.

The necessary technology does not yet exist on a commercial scale, the costs are enormous, and no one has demonstrated the ability to recover significant quantities of materials from asteroids whilst generating a real profit. For this reason, much of the current valuation is based on expectations of what might happen tomorrow, not necessarily on what exists today. And this is where the paradox of modern markets comes into play.

We see companies that generate billions in profits every year, produce real cash flow and sell tangible products, yet are often penalised on the stock market. At the same time, companies that present a revolutionary vision of the future can achieve astronomical valuations even before they have demonstrated the economic viability of their project.

Ultimately, it is not very different from what happens in the crypto world: meme coins often surge on the back of narrative, enthusiasm and expectations, whilst projects with real technology, users and utility are ignored for long periods. The market does not always reward what produces value today; often, it rewards what might produce it tomorrow.

This does not mean that those visions are wrong. It simply means that the price incorporates hopes, probabilities and future dreams long before concrete results materialise.

If one day we see a mission capable of extracting, transporting and profitably selling resources from asteroids, then I will be the first to applaud. Because at that point we will no longer be talking about promises, but about a genuine economic revolution.

Until then, however, I remain of the opinion that real value continues to be measured by turnover, profits, cash flow and tangible results.
👌🏻

[Matias Scalbi @MatiasScalbi]

🔥 "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" UNA GEMA ESTE PAPER La estrategia que estaba en cash antes de 2000, 2008 y 2020

Mebane Faber lo publicó en el Journal of Wealth Management 2007. La idea es así de simple: cada fin de mes mirás si el precio del activo está arriba o abajo de su media móvil de 10 meses. Si está arriba, mantenés la posición. Si está abajo, salís a cash

La regla aplicada a 5 asset classes desde 1972:

- S&P 500 (acciones US)
- MSCI EAFE (acciones internacionales)
- GSCI (commodities)
- NAREIT (REITs)
- 10-year US Treasuries (bonos largos)

Construyó un portfolio equally-weighted entre las 5 con la regla aplicada a cada una

Los resultados del portfolio tácticamente gestionado vs buy-and-hold:

- Equity-like returns con bond-like volatility
- Más de 35 años consecutivos de retornos positivos
- Drawdowns dramáticamente menores que cada asset class individual
- Sidesteps de bear markets prolongados
- Performance comparable a hedge fund indices

Por qué funciona: las tendencias persisten más tiempo del que el mercado eficiente predice, especialmente a horizontes mensuales. Saltarte solo los peores meses de un bear market preserva capital para los rebotes

La crítica honesta: en bull markets sostenidos como 2010-2020, el modelo subperforma al buy-and-hold porque sale y entra con cierta frecuencia generando whipsaw. El edge se nota en crisis (2000, 2008, 2020)

Mi conclusión: es de los papers más prácticos que vas a leer. Una regla, 5 ETFs, rebalanceás una vez por mes, y reducís dramáticamente el riesgo de drawdown sin sacrificar mucho retorno. Zarattini, Pagani y Gabriel acaban de actualizar los resultados a marzo 2025 y siguen sosteniéndose

Link al paper primer comentario

[Matias Scalbi @MatiasScalbi]

🔥 "Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable?" Una estrategia de day trading hizo 1.484% mientras el Nasdaq hacía 169%, misma ventana 2016 a 2023

Zarattini, de Concretum, y Andrew Aziz testearon el Opening Range Breakout de 5 minutos, una de las estrategias más conocidas del day trading retail

Y la regla es tan simple que entra en un café: mirás la primera vela de 5 minutos, si es verde te ponés largo en la apertura de la segunda, si es roja te ponés corto, con el stop en el extremo del día. Nada más

Lo probaron de 2016 a 2023, con dos bear markets adentro, COVID y la caída de 2022:

- En el QQQ la estrategia hizo 676% contra 169% del QQQ comprado y aguantado
- Alpha de 33% anual y, lo más importante, beta cero, o sea no correlaciona con el mercado

Acá viene la parte interesante. El broker te limita el apalancamiento a 4x, así que operando QQQ no exprimís todo el filo. La solución que proponen es operar el TQQQ, el ETF que da 3 veces el movimiento del Nasdaq. Con eso:

- 1.484% contra 169% del Nasdaq comprado
- Alpha de 47% anual, Sharpe 1,19, beta cero otra vez
- Drawdown máximo de 28%, contra el 82% que sufrió el que compró y aguantó TQQQ
- Funcionó en subidas y en bajadas

Y rompe un mito lindo: el win rate es apenas 24%, ganás pocas veces, pero cortás las pérdidas en seco y dejás correr las ganancias, esa asimetría hace toda la diferencia

Para no vender humo: hay una versión optimizada que da 9.350%, pero los propios autores avisan que asume cero slippage y deja de ser realista con cuentas grandes

El riesgo real del day trading no es la estrategia, es el error operativo, no respetar el stop o convertir un trade en inversión

Mi conclusión: el day trading sistemático puede funcionar, pero no es plata fácil, es una regla simple sostenida con disciplina de hierro y un stop sagrado

Link al paper en el primer comentario

[Arkham @arkham]

He turned $30K into $3 Million in 2 months

Trader 0xcf6 started trading with only $27.95K, 2 months ago at the beginning of April. He picked recent hyped stocks in tech and AI, such as Micron, Intel and Sandisk.

How did he make $3.19 Million so quickly?

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

JENSEN HUANG DOING IT AGAIN

IN TAIPEI, HE SAID THESE STOCKS ARE THE FUTURE:

$NOW — AI agents run inside ServiceNow's enterprise software stack

$CRWD — Security layer every AI factory must have running

$PLTR — Turns AI agent outputs into real government/enterprise decisions

$MSFT — Co-built the entire agentic PC platform with Jensen

$TSM — Only company on earth that can build these chips

AND HE HAS A DEAL WITH THESE ONES:

$HPE — Builds and ships the physical AI factory server infrastructure

$IREN — Owns the cheap power AI factories are desperately hungry for

$CRWV — The cloud Jensen personally called out by dollar valuation

$ARM — Every AI chip on the planet runs on ARM architecture

$DELL — First to rack and deploy Vera Rubin in production

$NVDA STILL SUPER EARLY SO DON'T MISS IT!

♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share my $HPE earnings play with you. It's tonight.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Buy Full Moon, exit New Moon
2010 - 2020 SPs-80 trades, 71.25% win rate, raw profit factor 2.59, during this 10-year period, no other day of the month tested out better when looking at exit 10 days later. Have not had time to update stats...but been tracking this for 40+ years.

[AR @ashikruben369]

Threads 🧵 of strategy → CRT + TBS

TBS = Turtle Body Soup 🐢 🍲

Thread 🧵 1 : https://t.co/MBr14R6QZH

Thread 🧵 2 : https://t.co/mBDP0Gg1sD

Thread 🧵 3 : https://t.co/w6g6x0wJqy

Thread 🧵 4 : https://t.co/Zzw4qf0kXx

Thread 🧵 5 : https://t.co/0NjEkl3kWf

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#US30 12RR

https://t.co/6C1O447IXK

[AR @ashikruben369]

Examples of CRT entry method TBS,

TBS = Turtle Body Soup

Join : https://t.co/fsknplJ0DD

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

simple signal for you

look at this sexy #aave #crypto chart

just wait confirm and enter longgg

#trader #trade #Crypto #cryptotrading #btc #ALTSEASON #eth #chillguymeme #chillguy #wif #pepe #memes #cryptosignals #signals #CT

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#brent #oil #UKOUSD

6RR

just use bpr with limit

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#ETH

we can long now

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#EURUSD #EUR

2RR tp

manipulation -> m3 shift -> im in

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#US100 #NQ #NASDAQ

today SL hit

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#US30 #DowJones

8RR

just use #BPR #balancedpricerange and after reaction im in, thanks #ICT

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#us30 #DowJonesNasdaq #ICT

8RR

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

#NQ #nasdaq #NASDAQ100

20RR

manipulation + distribution

[AR @ashikruben369]

Some of the missing parts of CRT

Join : https://t.co/fsknplJ0DD

[indices gambler @fxsessiontrader]

@zeussy_mmxm Will there be a recording of the lecture?