Łukasz Fyderek

Political Scientist | Director of the Institute of the Middle and Far East @JagiellonskiUni |

[Karim Sadjadpour @ksadjadpour]

"The Iranian negotiation style is generally known in the world as the ‘bazaar style,’ which means continuous and tireless bargaining,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in his 2025 diplomatic memoir. “This method is a process of interaction that requires great patience and time,” and thus, “he who gets tired and bored quickly will lose.” https://t.co/6RPjkzFCdg

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

New reporting from Reuters indicates that Israel has issued evacuation orders covering 20% of Lebanon, far beyond the "buffer zone" it previously announced to the Litani River.

More than half of the evacuation orders were *north* of Litani.

Gaza tactics in Lebanon.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The oil barrels keep trickling out the Strait of Hormuz. Today, two super oil tankers (VLCC) crossed in dark mode, carrying Saudi and Emirates crude.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

BREAKING: UAE discloses it’s building an additional second pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

The new pipeline will be finished in 2027 and will double the country’s export capacity in Fujairah (the current pipeline has a capacity of 1.5-1.8m b/d)

[Uniwersytet Jagielloński @JagiellonskiUni]

#JUmedia | 1 maja 🇦🇪 opuściły OPEC, czyli Organizację Krajów Eksportujących Ropę Naftową. Wydarzenie to komentuje w rozmowie z red. @DariuszRosiak prof. @fyderek z Instytutu Bliskiego i Dalekiego Wschodu @WSMiPUJ.

https://t.co/9w0eSNLY2Z

[Mateusz Grzeszczuk - Podróż bez Paszportu @PBPaszportu]

🇮🇷 Iran ograł Trumpa? Blokada Cieśniny Ormuz. 🇭🇺 Węgry? Pospolite ruszenie

Posłuchaj:
https://t.co/RilBj28vWL

➡️ Iran, mimo braku potężnych sojuszników i funkcjonowania w stanie „strategicznej samotności”, skutecznie wykorzystuje asymetryczne środki nacisku, takie jak manipulowanie percepcją zagrożenia w Cieśninie Ormuz

➡️Węgry stoją obecnie u progu fundamentalnych zmian politycznych, które mogą zakończyć erę dominacji Viktora Orbána i wprowadzić kraj na zupełnie nowe tory relacji z Europą.

🎙️ Zapraszam na wydanie specjalne "Rzecz o geopolityce" w @rzeczpospolita - prof. @fyderek @JagiellonskiUni oraz @TomaszSynowiec @JagiellonskiUni

[Mohamad El Chamaa @MohamdEch]

More than 37,000 housing units destroyed in Lebanon since the start of the war.

[Jared Szuba @JM_Szuba]

NEWS: Trump says he has agreed to a hold off on expanded strikes in Iran for two weeks on the condition it reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately, after a conversation with Pakistan’s PM

“We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

[Łukasz Fyderek @fyderek]

To sum up: threat isn't going away. In an anarchic international system with no real authority above nations, coercion is often the only lever available. But used carelessly, it doesn't just fail — it makes the situation actively worse for everyone.
/end 🧵

[Łukasz Fyderek @fyderek]

🧵 When nations threaten each other, the margin between deterrence and disaster is razor thin. Understanding the logic of threat — credibility, miscalculation, and the stress it produces — has never been more urgent. J. David Singer mapped it all out in 1963. Thread.

[Łukasz Fyderek @fyderek]

Threatening a wide range of actions either exhausts the threatening state or corners the threatened state with no exit.

If the threatened state's leadership is internally weak, threat makes things WORSE. Threat designed to force compliance instead forces resistance-to keep power

[Salman Al-Ansari | سلمان الأنصاري @Salansar1]

Iran's attacks on Arab countries. - @AlMajallaEN

[ACLED @ACLEDINFO]

🚨 Nearly one month into the US and Israel’s war with Iran, here are the latest figures: At least 2,101 US/Israeli strikes have targeted Iran since 28 February as of 10:00 CET this morning. In retaliation, Iran has launched over 1,115 strikes targeting 16 countries & territories.