Greg 🇵🇸

Digital Marketer | Fantasy Sports | Draft Hobbyist | (Mostly) Pessimistic Buffalo Fan

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@Matt_barlowe @poodleknowsball That's what the chart shows. The lowest that curve ever went is -$658. Across 11,700 bets that's the most he was ever down, so no reload. Kelly stakes are a % of your current roll, they shrink during drawdowns, so ruin risk with a real edge is ~0. True PnL here is +$387K.

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@Matt_barlowe @poodleknowsball Pro bettors can definitely cycle through their entire bankroll on one sport multiple times a year. Also annualized ROI in a sim is purely a function of stake size and bets per year. What did you assume? At quarter Kelly over 11,700 bets it compounds way past 29%.

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@Matt_barlowe @poodleknowsball Even at 23% that’s what your capital earns in a year. The 9% is earned every time the bankroll cycles through a bet, and it cycles dozens of times a year. A $20K bankroll cycling $1M of handle at 9% makes 90K. That’s 450% annual

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@Matt_barlowe @poodleknowsball ROI is on total handle, not capital. $387K at 9.38% means he wagered about $4.1M, but he never had 4.1M. It’s a bankroll recycled over 11,700 bets. An index fund pays 10% on your money once a year. A 9% edge on money you re-bet every week crushes that

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@BuffaloWins Da’Rick Rogers has to be number 1. The hype was unreal

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@jagibbs_23 Where is this data?

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@yolo_pinyato @mckeenshockey @EPRinkside I have a workbook on scouting notes from 2006-2026, shoot a DM if interested

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@Matt_Bove This roster has $3.6m in cap left over w/full 23 man team.

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@BraytonJWilson I think it’s a 2027 3rd

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@JoeYerdon Cole Hutson? Liljegren?

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@MongooseBets @selfgodbets Your model is very broken if that’s the case.

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@Matt_barlowe This is how I think about it

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@TageFan72 @Sabrestalkv2 He was considered the number 1 prospect in the NHL post WJC

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@DavisMattek 20.5% Hunter

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@JFreshHockey OG shootout goat

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@AndrewHeaters @BuffaloFreddy That’s all fine but it doesn’t make what you said about him having stone hands or being a bad skater true

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@AndrewHeaters @BuffaloFreddy Mrtka is not slow + he’s skating is getting even better. He’s not the most gifted offensively but he makes a good first pass, certainly not “stone hands”.

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@Sabremetrix @23sabres I don't know, Krebs was the 16th pick, Mrtka the 9th pick. Hague had a good D+1, but I doubt that closes the gap to a recent 9OA. In 21, Wheeler had Krebs as the 26th best NHL affiliated prospect. In 26, Mrtka was 22nd. You can nitpick the source, but it's close either way IMO.

[Greg 🇵🇸 @gCan28]

@BillTCB 27-28 salary cap goes up a ton + Skinner’s buyout hit is 4m lower + Byrams raise will likely only be around $3m - can fit Tuch + Byram quite easily with a full roster. 26-27 is harder to fit Tuch into.