Gabe

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Why does everything have to be about right vs left?

Charlie Kirk might have been a republican but he always emphasized and defended free speech, open debate, and the right of political opponents (including Democrats) to organize and campaign….

Most of us got to know him because of these values he portrayed.

His death and murder is an absolute tragedy and the fact that the opposite of what he worked and fought so hard for is sad to see.

How can the division be so incredibly big in such dark times… especially when we have no suspect, no arrest, no motive…

Using a tragedy to push an agenda is more than sad.

This death hits hard…

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Major bears turning bullish.

Sentiment and positioning getting there.

[Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS]

Options selling is booming like never before

Assets in derivative income funds jumped to a record **64 billion**--that's a 50% jump from last year and the highest level in records going back to 1996 --Morningstar

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

Most folks right now are looking for signs or confirmation of a bull market.

Although the market has went straight up since the end of October, 1-3M call side skew in large tech has still not turned V shaped like we saw during Q1 2021. Lots of overwriting flow keeping that contained right now. This means that although *YOU* may believe everyone is chasing risk assets, that euphoria has yet to hit the bulk of market participants.

If/ when that does occur, it’ll be a very fun market to trade.

[vwaptrader1 @vwaptrader1]

@OptionsProtege I learned a long time ago that short sellers are future buyers and we can build great moves off them once they are trapped😉

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

Charlie Munger on bet sizing:

(Source https://t.co/cJ3Vpd458l)

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

The psyche in trading is truly amazing.

Most bad traders will feel comfortable adding to losers as the market goes against them, in the HOPE that profits will materialize in the future.

Yet feel uncomfortable adding to winners as the market works in their favor, in the FEAR that profits will disappear in the future.

It's amazing how a core recipe in trading, regardless of asset class, boils down to doing the exact opposite of this.

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

I have traded through numerous vol events (Flash crash/ Brexit/ Volmageddon/ Cov-19) my biggest moments as a trader have come from being long volatility.

Throughout the years I put together a list of notes that I refer to once $VIX crosses over 30. If you are convexity focused in your trading approach, I hope this helps you.

1) Time: It may sound cliche, but things truly start slowing down during those moments. Hyperbole would be saying that it feels like the matrix, except your emotions will be extremely heightened. Every market tick feels massive in both directions. Days feel like weeks, weeks feel like months. Every headline and piece of news has a stronger smell to it, markets will digest and react immediately. This will drain you, mentally and physically, be prepared for that.

2) Environment: Dislocations are affirmations to your view. Things from a cross-asset standpoint will not make sense and this will be the sign to stay strong in your position, vol is here to stay. Ex: during cov-19 there were moments where single stock surfaces didn’t hold true to put-call parity. Things were breaking and price insensitive end users were creating dislocations across the surface. You also had smaller nasdaq names that had offers through the bid (the matching engine was breaking).

3) Price action: Vol does not just go straight up. It’s going to feel like vol is going to collapse every single second of the day, mentally you have to be prepared to see your P&L swing rapidly. There will be times where you see vol collapse 5 vol points overnight. Understand that this is healthy for vol. This back and forth price action is what traps aggressive shorts and ultimately leads to bigger upside moves.

4) Monetization: As patient as you have to be, you also do not want to be the guy that watched the option he bought for $0.10 go to $10.00 and then to $0. When thinking about monetizing, you are going to want to scale out of your exposure in the heat of vol raging higher. Vol of vol is your best friend during these moments, you have to let it work in your favor. The only way to do this is by scaling out into those fast vol moves higher. This will suck, because you will always feel like you are selling too early when you begin scaling. Just accept that you will never time this process perfectly. You do not want to be selling your exposure when vol is moving lower and prices are deflating across the surface. Suckers chase exits, good traders will hand the market the position it desperately wants at a premium. Vol of vol and the “repricing of risk” will create that premium for you, use it.

5) News consumption: You are going to want to limit what your mind digests. Perma-bear research and click bait news headlines are just going to creep it’s way into your decision making process. Avoid playing into that, if you are in front of screens, you have the fastest news outlet in the world, the price action from the market will tell you what you need to know. Build up a team of reliable brokers who’s word is valid. Floor brokers have been my best friend during these moments and they have earned my loyalty/ business just from a few instances when the bullets were flying. For retail traders this isn’t as easy, try building out more infrastructure that you think can be more helpful to your news digestion.

6) Super Bowl mindset: Corny and cliche but it’s true. These moments rarely present themselves, so when they do, put everything else aside. Friends and family are going to have to understand that you take risk for a living and there are certain moments that are crucial. You may end up missing events/ moments in order to regroup yourself mentally and physically. Just know that this is your sacrifice and it’s even a bigger reason as to why you need to be sharp and execute. If you botch this one, it may take you 5 years for the market to present you another opportunity.

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

Starting to see more technical analysis on $VIX appear. As many already know, this is not correct. Here is a quick cheat sheet about vol products that you should understand.

1) $VIX = Pricing derived from a strip of $SPX options
2) $VVIX = Pricing derived from a strip of $VIX options
3) $UVXY / $VXX / $SVIX / $UVIX = Pricing derived from a weighting of the two front month VX contracts

Technicals can work when you identify areas of true supply and demand imbalances. When you have a stationary (mean reverting) time series, the same supply/ demand dynamics that drive markets don't apply. When you are doing TA on the $VIX you are trying to identify supply and demand dynamics on a product that literally is mathematically derived from the calculation below. This is not something that is debatable, I am stating an objective fact.

Stop doing TA on the $VIX , put your time and effort somewhere else.

[Crowded Market Report @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt]

If 1 more person says the only way bonds find a bid is when stocks crash, i swear im gonna break something

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

This year the market has done nothing but move higher on bad and good news.

It only went down on uncertainty.

People search for a reason for fear, but each time the “panic item” hits, the market fully discounted it.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

@TheOneLanceB

[Steven Spencer @sspencer_smb]

understand that there are many hedge funds short regional bank stocks.
understand that they will feed stories to the press that helps their positions.
this is how the game is played. $KRE $WAL

[Gabe @GabrielAgneta]

@UnhingedPatrick Amen 🙏

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

Bella’s blog post is spot-on.

MOST can identify a problem.

FEW propose EFFECTIVE solutions & develop a CONCRETE plan.

ONLY ELITE consistently execute / iterate their plan over time.

Need ALL 3 steps for results; is why most don’t ever see progress.

https://t.co/MR23pxY4P7

[Steven Spencer @sspencer_smb]

one of the more common patterns we see intraday... $QQQ

[Gabe @GabrielAgneta]

@bmadtrading in yo mamas ass

[Gabe @GabrielAgneta]

Brian Watt where are you when we need you

[Gabe @GabrielAgneta]

@bmadtrading Funny you say that cause hes back you loser

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

$VIX spikes in previous market crashes:

1. 2020: 670%

2. 2018: 450%

3. 2015: 380%

4. 2010: 240%

5. 2008: 860%

6. 2001: 220%

7. CURRENTLY: 130%

No bear market since 1929 has bottomed without at least a 200%+ spike $VIX.

There is not nearly enough fear for a bottom yet.