#จัดตั้งรัฐบาล2566 Summarizing my thoughts on today's developments in this long write:
@PheuThaiParty's decision to part ways with @MFPThailand in the formation of the next Thai government, long telegraphed for weeks, is now certainty.
Not much is left of the hopeful optimism following Move Forward's surprise election victory back in May, which feels like a very long time ago. The "democratic alliance" of the 8 parties, set out to do things differently, ended in divorce with a torn-up MOU.
Pheu Thai will bear the initial backlash by Move Forward voters, who feel hoodwinked and bamboozled by its coalition partner and will have a its work cut out re-gaining voters' trust back, having waved the flag for electoral democracy for years in the past.
Yes, the election winner doesn't always come out on top afterwards - but this is just the latest twist in a lopsided affair for the reformist-progressive party or anyone that wants to form a govt.
3 weeks ago, a majority of MPs of the outgoing conservative government and Senators appointed by the former military junta have unequivocally made clear that they don't want @Pita_MFP to lead a government that seeks to undo the enshrined political legacy of the former junta and challenging the orthodoxy of the Thai power structure incl. the military and monarchy - their opposition to MFP's plans to amend lèse majesté was just a pretense.
And the message has been consistent in the following weeks, especially since Pheu Thai took over the lead in the coalition talks: ditch Move Forward and they may endorse them.
The lopsidedness comes that 250 appointed Senators (if they all actually show up) and just a ⅓ of the elected MPs can outweigh the rest in the PM vote, denying the electoral majority the path to govern. It's only a small consultation that the Senators won't play a role in this next mid-next year.
To say this is a "failure by design" would be too much of a credit to those that crafted it - the genesis of this charter is a deep-seated contempt for elected MPs that must be strictly limited.
Pheu Thai may feel more comfortable now that MFP is out of the picture, but the rival MPs and Senators still have the bigger leverage over them in the PM vote.
If confirmed, a Pheu Thai govt will be measured in part by its promises it made today to "honor" some of MFP's policies such as marriage equality, liquor liberalization and the end of military conscription - but above all its pledge for constitutional reforms incl. a referendum on it and fresh election once a new charter is in place.
Whether they will do all this, only time will tell. But if not, Pheu Thai will face off against an even stronger Move Forward (if not banned by the powers that be again before that) again in the future: This year's election was not only a rejection of the outgoing government, but of old-school politics in general with Pheu Thai being one of the main targets, as it has lost some of its key strongholds to the younger party.
While old-school politicking has saved Pheu Thai from playing the second fiddle for now, economic achievements may not be enough to win over a politically more savvy electorate in the future - which is somewhat ironic, since again it was Pheu Thai that claimed to have these voters in their corner in the past.
One question Pheu Thai will need to ask itself: Will Pheu Thai be part of the solution going forward - or be part of the problem by relying on its old tricks?
A drone has captured incredible footage of entire houses encased in ice after a bomb cyclone hit the US and parts of Canada.
Read more: https://t.co/jMSLhhH6kY