Gagan S

Making sense of money, business and the economy. Unpacking the numbers behind everyday life.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@Stockstudy8 The 42% import jump deserves a footnote. A good part of import GST tracks the value of what we import, and crude was near its highs. If crude keeps falling, that tailwind fades. Domestic growth of 15.8% is the cleaner signal.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@vinodchendhil The question is who absorbs the defaults. A guarantee scheme at Rs 100 crore stops being MSME credit support and starts being mid-corporate risk on the government's book. Going from Rs 10 crore to 25 or 50 crore may be the safer next step.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@Ajay_Bagga For Indian markets, gridlock in Washington matters less than what happened in Doha tonight. Crude down 6% on Iran peace talk does more for our deficit than any US Congress result.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@harshmadhusudan The difference is the fiscal room. SBI Research says FY27's deficit could overshoot by about Rs 1.2 lakh crore. In 2003 the government could afford the gesture. Today every rupee of relief comes out of a budget that's already slipping.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@MagicNifty One data point backs your caution. India VIX went up today with Nifty up 1.7%. Fear usually falls on rally days. When both rise, people are buying and hedging at the same time.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@ViveKSingh_DC Gift Nifty was up over 200 near midnight. Crude down 6% points to OMCs, paints, aviation and tyres. One caution is that India VIX rose today even as Nifty rallied, so not everyone buying is unhedged.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@HappyTraderJi I'd read it differently. The trigger was Iran saying its president has authority to pursue peace talks, and Brent fell 6% on that. The midterms matter for the dollar. Crude is trading Iran.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@Chart_Wallah108 It also did most of Nifty's lifting. Reliance added about 211 of Nifty's 388 points today. And it closed exactly at 1300, where the biggest call OI was sitting. Tomorrow tells us if that wall breaks.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@nakulvibhor Gift Nifty already agrees, up 200 plus. The twist is Reliance. It just posted a record quarter on war-driven refining margins. Cheaper crude helps paints, OMCs and aviation, but not necessarily the stock that led today.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@Osint613 For India this is the single most important chart tonight. Every USD 10 off crude is a big relief on the import bill and the rupee. Gift Nifty is already up over 200.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

Nifty rallied 1.7% today and India VIX still went up, to 15.66.

Usually fear falls when markets rise. When both go up together, someone is buying the rally and paying for protection at the same time.

Not exactly a vote of confidence.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

Today's rally had two engines pulling in opposite directions.

Reliance jumped 11.6% on record refining margins, and those margins came from the war. Tonight crude is down 6% because peace talks look possible.

If peace actually holds, India's macro wins big. But the tailwind behind Reliance's best quarter ever starts fading at the same time.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@Mf360WW The interesting part is what this fixes. Today, switching from a weak fund to a better one triggers 12.5% LTCG above ₹1.25 lakh, so many investors stay stuck in funds they've outgrown. If it goes through, it's less a tax cut and more a cure for inertia.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

@BullMarkets1 Today was the case for your approach in one candle. Reliance's 11.6% jump was its biggest single day since April 2020, and nobody could have timed it. Monthly buying meant you were already there when it came.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

Dixon rose 12% today. Syrma SGS fell 7%.

Both are electronics manufacturers riding the same PLI story.

That's a 19-point gap inside one sector on one day. The market has stopped buying EMS as a theme and started picking companies.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

Nifty rose 388 points today. Reliance alone added roughly 195 of them.

That's a 7.3% index weight moving 11.6% in a day.

Strip Reliance out and today was a decent day, not a big one. Breakouts built on one stock need a second leader within a week, or they fade.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

Today's move in Reliance appears to have been driven largely by short covering from the 1200 CE writers.

The OI has dropped sharply from 1.70Cr to 85 lakh.

The next level to watch is 1300 CE, where OI stands at 1.40Cr.

Will these call writers also be forced to cover, fuelling another leg of the rally? Or will 1300 CE become a bull trap?

That's the interesting battle to watch.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

Anthropic was valued at roughly $550 million in 2021.

Five years later, its latest announced valuation stands at $965 billion.

That's a nearly 1,755x increase.

Think about that for a moment.

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

FIIs after hearing rumours of an LTCG tax cut:

First they ignore us, then they laugh at us, then they fight us, then we win.

#Nifty

[Prashant Nair @_prashantnair]

FM SIGNALS OPENNESS TO RETHINK ON EQUITY TAXATION !

‘
The taxation structure was what it is today, even in 2023 when inflows were record high.. today the circumstances have changed

FPI outflows have happened, voices of concern are louder.

I will consider all this.

At a time when growth is very important and to sustain 7% plus growth we need capital especially equity.

We also have this voice that equity also needs the kind of support given to the debt market. I recognize this voice.

’’

#LTCG #Nifty #BankNifty #Taxation #Rupee #Investing

[Gagan S @gagan_india]

FIIs after hearing Tax cut rumours-

First they ignore us, then they laugh at us, then they fight with us, then we win.

#Nifty