Jamie

[Jamie @gallajam]

This 👇

[Al Carns @AlistairCarns]

A few things happening at once that people should connect.

Russia is now linked to the arson attacks on the Prime Minister's house and car last year. Shocker.

And we all saw what happened the moment that story broke. Our feeds flooded with a different story about who the men were and why they did it.

That's the operation. The arson is one half. The disinformation campaign is the other.

Flood the zone, muddy the water, get the country shouting at itself instead of asking who is behind it.

And at the same time, a chunk of the accounts pushing Scottish independence on X went dark the night Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites.

Ask yourself why. Why would hostile states be interested in sowing division across the country?

This is exactly what I mean when I say defence is the thread underneath everything now.

Again, it isn't tanks on a border. It's an arson attack on the PM's front door and state-sponsored disinformation campaigns in the replies. It's the argument about breaking up our country being run out of Tehran.

This is why resilience matters. And it's bigger than just factchecking a tweet. It's energy we can rely on. Industry we actually own. Institutions that are rock solid. Communities that don't split and fracture the moment someone pushes them. A country that is built to take a punch.

That's the job now.

[Jamie @gallajam]

@andrewdc208 That's brave but I think someone once said, "When it's time to buy you won't want to."

[Jamie @gallajam]

@SamOFinancial @doglegpar3 Imagine trying to find the sweetspot on a Tour Burner Flex-Twist now! I would snap hook that thing off the planet!

[Jamie @gallajam]

@MisterLowRisk $ARM and $LAMR

[Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson]

Regicide is a dangerous game to play if you're on the fiscal brink - and UK is more exposed now than under Liz Truss. https://t.co/Bbxf4cT26G

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump has lifted all tariffs on Scottish whiskey and bourbon following a request from the King

[PGA TOUR University @PGATOURU]

Forever a Demon Deacon 🎩

Newly minted @PGATOUR rookie Alex Fitzpatrick credits his four years at @WakeMGolf for his recent success on American soil.

[GrrrGraphics 🇺🇸- Ben & Tina Garrison Cartoons @GrrrGraphics]

Strait of Hormuz is Open!
Strait of Hormuz is Closed!
Open! Closed!

[Prosper UK @Prosper_UK_]

A party leader and sitting MP pushing an asset he’s heavily invested in.

It’s sleazy politics - using a public platform to back your own bets.

We’re doing the hard yards: building growth, jobs and investment.

Sign up today: https://t.co/3k4blDherJ

[Jamie @gallajam]

@1ChartMaster What do you think of $APEI ?

[Physics & Astronomy Zone @zone_astronomy]

The highest quality video of the moon was just released… this is so beautiful.

[Jamie @gallajam]

@ThiccTeddy Buy cheap, buy twice.

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

WSJ GIFT LINK: Trump might end the war without trying to forcibly open Hormuz.

It stinks, but this is likely the least bad choice in a situation of all bad options. Ending the U.S. war is a necessary condition, but possibly not a sufficient one, for Iran reopening the strait.

I get that it feels irresponsible for the U.S. to simply leave after creating a mess. It’s maddening, but might be for the best. Hear me out.

Trump created a global public bad by attacking Iran and prompting the regime to close the strait. It was a colossal mistake that has caused pain in the U.S. and beyond.

But cutting U.S. losses in a failed war makes more sense than continued fighting for a lost cause. And if the U.S. keeps fighting, no doubt Iran will continue to threaten the strait.

If the U.S. quits the war, that would increase the political pressure on Iran to reopen the strait now that hostilities are over. Iran may try to extract “tolls” and if the Tehran Tollbooth persists after the war, it will be a lasting reminder of U.S. policy failure.

But the tolls themselves aren’t that high — $2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels is just a $1/barrel surcharge, amounting to a 1% tax. Not great, but better than what oil prices are doing now.

It would also incentivize Iran to keep traffic moving securely through Hormuz by monetizing safe transit. Yes I know it rewards bad behavior and morally it stinks for an odious regime to profit, but that’s the reality that Trump’s blunderous war has bestowed on us all.

There’s a reason most of us don’t worry about Egypt (today) closing Suez or Panama closing its canal — the profit motive is powerful.

Overall if Trump ends the war (which he should) with the Tollbooth intact, we are all worse off than we were on February 27, but better off than where we are now, and better than where we could be if the war stretches on for months or years.

I know it’s not a satisfying ending but it’s pragmatic and we don’t live in the best of all possible worlds.

There is one problem, though: Israel. Trump will almost certainly need to restrain Israel from continuing its war for Iran to reopen the strait. It should be a no-brainer: Israel is the junior partner and Trump should have the leverage to make them stop, given how much military aid the U.S. gives to Israel.

But it’s not clear Trump will use it.

@defpriorities

https://t.co/bKe4lGllX3

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: Zelensky just landed in the UAE and signed a defence cooperation agreement with President MBZ.

The deal on the table changes everything about this war. Ukraine is offering Gulf states 1,000 drone interceptors per day. Each Sting interceptor costs $2,100. Each Patriot missile it replaces costs $3.9 million. In exchange, Ukraine wants the Patriot missiles the Gulf states are burning through, because Kyiv cannot get enough of them to stop Russian missiles.

Read that again. The country America refused to arm fast enough is now arming America’s allies with a weapon that costs 1,857 times less than the one America cannot produce fast enough.

The National reported on March 27 that Zelensky told reporters: “We’d like to quietly receive the Patriot missiles we have a deficit of, and give them a corresponding number of interceptors.” AFP confirmed the UAE agreement on March 28. Eleven countries have formally requested Ukraine’s drone defence expertise per Zelensky’s own count. Over 200 Ukrainian military specialists are already deployed across the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan.

Here is the arithmetic that should terrify every Pentagon procurement officer on earth.

The United States fired 943 Patriot interceptors in the first four days of the Iran war per a US Congressional study cited by the Jerusalem Post. That is eighteen months of Lockheed Martin’s annual production consumed in 96 hours. Each of those 943 shots cost $3.9 million. Total expenditure: $3.68 billion in four days on defensive interceptions alone. Iran produces 10,000 Shahed drones per month per Reuters. Each drone costs $20,000 to $50,000. The cost exchange ratio is 114 to 1 in Iran’s favour per Military Times.

Ukraine’s Sting interceptor inverts this arithmetic entirely. At $2,100, the cost ratio flips from 114-to-1 against America to roughly 10-to-1 against Iran. Ukraine can supply 1,000 per day. That is 30,000 per month against Iran’s 10,000 Shaheds per month. For the first time in this war, the defender’s production rate exceeds the attacker’s production rate at a fraction of the cost.

And the country that built this weapon is the same country that Trump publicly rejected. “No, they are not helping. We do not need their help. We know more about drones than anyone else” per Fox News. He doubled down: “The last person we need help from is Zelensky.” Meanwhile the Pentagon notified Congress of plans to redirect $750 million in Ukraine-bound Patriot missiles to Gulf states per House of Saud reporting. America is simultaneously refusing Ukraine’s cheap solution and cannibalising Ukraine’s expensive one.

Zelensky framed this explicitly. He told The National: “No matter how many Patriots, THAADs, or other air-defence systems are in the Middle East, that alone is not enough for fully effective air defence.” He told the UK Parliament: “When it comes to shooting down massive Shahed attacks, only Ukrainian experience can really help with this today.”

The Pentagon is spending $3.9 million per interception, raiding Swiss fighter jet accounts to cover shortfalls, and diverting Ukraine’s own Patriot supply to the Gulf. Zelensky is offering the same result for $2,100 and producing 1,000 units per day. The market has a word for this kind of disruption.

The $2,100 drone is the most important weapon in this war. And the country that built it is the one America said it did not need.

Full analysis - https://t.co/32ixeQpfif

[Jamie @gallajam]

@ShaneRyanHere Sandy Lyle 1988

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

🎥WHO PLACED THE BET?
Someone just made a killing with an extraordinarily well-timed bet on financial markets, minutes before Donald Trump's announcement of war talks yesterday.
Was it luck, or inside information?
Either way... someone just got rich.
Four min primer👇

[Matt Miller @mattmiller1973]

At least 6 mln bbls of Brent and WTI were sold in the two minutes from 6:49 am in New York Monday. The average for the same time period over the previous five trading days was about 700,000. President Trump’s Truth Social post was published at 7:05 am.

[Jamie @gallajam]

👀 👀

[Financial Times @FT]

FT Exclusive: Traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting 'productive' talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling https://t.co/KVa0cZRLn0