sam

[sam @galsa85]

@kellyenz It appears your scenario distribution shows a 3.25% minimum, and 5.00% maximum OCR in 12 months with equal probability (10%?). So at least one 50bp, and possibly 100bp hikes from your stated starting point in December. Got it, thanks.

[sam @galsa85]

@kellyenz Mid 5% average mortgage rate will require an OCR lower than 4% unless you are going to tighten your margins 😉
And the reprice lower takes years (average rate still moving higher).
Even still, mid 5s would be less than 100bp easing for households versus current levels.

[sam @galsa85]

@kellyenz Kelly, have you looked at the impact of a 4% terminal OCR on average mortgage rates? Typically mortgage/ois spread is around 200bp. So you think a 6% av. mortgage rate (~6.4% currently) will be sufficient to relieve household bal sheet stress while also forecasting a lift in UE?