HMTN Analyst

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

Misleading. Current schemes with EU financing & intelligence sharing dwarf aid to Egypt.

Comments section under this post is an indictment of democracy

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

The US currently gives more military aid to Egypt than to Ukraine.

Why?

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

Terrible move by Iran. One of the main reasons Trump is putting a stop to the war is our inability to defend Gulf infrastructure targets.

If the deal becomes “we will target oil refineries, war or not” the U.S. will choose open conflict.

[Phil Stewart @phildstewart]

MORE -

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia expects imminent coordinated attacks from the north and south by Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthis under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a senior Saudi official said on Thursday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said intelligence reports from Saudi Arabia, the United States and other regional countries indicated civilian and economic sites could be targeted, including energy infrastructure, ports and airports.

Saudi Arabia had also observed drones and missiles being moved, suggesting coordinated operations from both directions, the official said.

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@lovelyboy21 @Osinttechnical I remember Ukrainian advisors complaining about widespread PAC-3 use on Shahed

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@IsmaeelK_21 @kooberneets @Osinttechnical It’s not made up. There is a mole at the Pentagon

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@Pataramesh Apparently yes we do

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

Man, the political situation in (your country) is really terrible!
Fortunately, (the party not currently in power) will fix it!
You see, it's all (the group you don't like)'s fault!
If we just confiscate their stuff, bomb them, or deport them, everything will be perfect again. Just like (your favorite historical era)

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

So let me get this straight. The new conspiracy theory is that Trump deliberately started the war with Iran to benefit... Russia. And screw Ukraine?

Absolutely insane

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@AperatureFinTek @ShaunPinnerUA Terrible idea

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@FaraoniEmanuele @SKMorefield Dude, no. You gotta think about this. How many air bases could you build for a trillion dollars? And none are close to completely destroyed

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@Azraelgef7 @dioscuri Torps from subs, mines, standoff AShM from CONUS bombers (or Guam), demolition teams. In the first 48 hours tremendous force could be brought to bear. But not without heavy casualties

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@cameron19460429 Not the American way my friend. Nobody gets left behind, people are more valuable than things

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

With points 1 & 3, I think you’re spot-on. But it might not be entirely malice…

On #2, this is actually true. The PrSM is essentially a prototype weapon. We had few before the war and likely shot all of them. ATACMS is outdated and no longer in production. Tomahawk use was outstripping production before the war.

PrSM is entering full production, with contracts issued to 4x output through the early 2030s
Similarly, Tomahawk output will increase 12x (not a typo) in the coming years

Within about ~3 years we should be above pre-war levels for all of these systems, and on track to borderline overproduce them through the 2030s

If you are concerned about imminent Chinese actions, the shortages might feel critical to you. The leaks could be well-intentioned: I don’t have access to intelligence on Chinese war plans.

But imo there is no need to panic. Other systems can do the job of these weapons. In 2030 these depleted stockpiles will be a distant memory, and even by next year we will be ready for full-scale war once again.

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@Gbuck1968 @Osint613 It’s probably true. The U.S. possessed almost no PrSM before the war. We burned through what we had for testing, and atacms is exiting service anyway. Might as well use them.

We will have fully replenished stockpiles within just a few years at current production rates

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@DastDn Your worst take of all time

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

Deeply misguided. This + other attacks by Ukraine on civilians(the fpv footage targeting civilian cars at gas stations is outrageous) will quickly shift public perception in an unfavorable direction.

Criticism of Russian war crimes will seem meaningless if your side does the same

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

A drone hit a crowded beach in the Black Sea resort of Gelendzhik, Russia. At least 3 dead, 13 injured.

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@PhillipsPOBrien How is the U.S. siding with Russia in any way

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

You really don't want either A) Splinter factions who divide the country, so no cohesive leadership exists or B) Leaders who might be willing to talk, but are afraid if they upset you you'll kill them

US won't invade, so ultimately working with something resembling a unified Iranian govt is ideal. The country dissolving into chaos, or being unable to communicate with the outside world, is not ideal.

[HMTN Analyst @Gar80977209]

@SpaghettiKozak We don’t have the missiles to give, thanks to the Iran War. It is being framed as a betrayal by clueless people