Roberto Gargurevich

Engineering and investing. Covering analysis of the global monetary revolution #bitcoin

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

Following halving cycles, miners get squeezed as the BTC distribution gets cut in half and exchange rates against USD have not yet been repriced. This causes miners to have to liquidate their bitcoin holdings to cover the temporary gap.

As this continues to play out, less competitive miners are forced to drop out of the race. Which allows more of the bitcoin reward to be taken by the miners that survive. As these miners start getting the new rewards, their revenue starts to increase, and their need to liquidate from their holdings decreases. This is where the new bottom is formed.

Once miners enter a strong position again and begin to re-accumulate holdings, the true impacts of the new supply distribution rate begin have effect on the market. Market price begins to shoot up rapidly as the new reality of lower supply is materialized.

[Christian Moss @MandelDuck]

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗹𝗱: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱

George likes his Bitcoin friends but he also likes his non bitcoiner friends, can he manage them both?

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

Breaking CNBC:

Mortgage rates soar to 7.45% tonight following the huge surge in yields.

This is up from 7.24% just yesterday.

.19bps in one day. Huge move.

8% coming soon.

RIP Housing 🪦

[Macro Monday Newsletter @MacroMonday]

The S&P 500 just hit a record high.

But the liquidity picture is sending mixed signals.

Central bank balance sheets say “stretched.”

Global money supply says “supported.”

In the post-COVID market, knowing the difference may matter more than ever.

This week’s Macro Monday:
https://t.co/FykDVSCNp0

[Aleksandr Gampel @AGampel1]

We’ve been building in the shadows for 4.5 years.
Today, we’re pulling back more of the curtain.

We just dropped a 10-minute film showing what Cuby really looks like in operation (from 3 months ago).

Watch the film and then tell me if you still think the future has to suck.

More below.

@AKandrashou @buildwithcuby

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

How do you reconcile affordability against the fact that real estate appears to be undervalued when looking at historical ratios against gold and SPX? Also Trump recently made a statement about pumping real estate. Do you think that gold is capable of coming back down significantly so as to see a correction in the ratio with fiat debt still at such high levels? I might think it's more likely that everything just continues to inflate in fiat terms. The higher gold price could, in theory, strengthen balance sheets so as to unlock real estate credit, and maybe wages begin to inflate as well. This way affordability becomes reasonable again but prices remain high and climbing.

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@Z06Z07 @dotkrueger @JoeCarlasare @MichaelKantro https://t.co/bnVuRdNN3G

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The inflation-adjusted average starting salary for college graduates is down -8% YoY, to ~$54,500, the lowest in at least 6 years.

This marks the 4th consecutive annual decline.

Salaries have plummeted -24% in real terms since the ~$71,000 peak seen in 2021.

This comes as graduates are being pushed into lower-paying roles that often have little to do with their degree.

The % of recent graduates whose first job aligns with their field of study has fallen from 26% for the 2022 cohort to 20% for the 2025 cohort.

Young Americans are unable to find jobs.

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@Mayhem4Markets Gold-silver reprice will happen as gold goes even higher...

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@pete_rizzo_ https://t.co/kVRGMO7Dc5

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

Real estate vs gold has started to seem oversold. Mortgage rates and real estate credit seem likely to become more consumer friendly. Real estate prices would begin to move up to mean-revert the ratio against gold. In essence, real estate repricing higher against USD. We're watching the debasement happen live.

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

Real estate vs gold has started to seem oversold. Mortgage rates and real estate credit seem likely to become more consumer friendly. Real estate prices would begin to move up to mean-revert the ratio against gold. In essence, real estate repricing higher against USD. We're watching the debasement happen live.

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” - John Maynard Keynes talking about #Bitcoin

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

I don’t think they ever planned on doing so. I think Canada just needed to play politics. China is large owner of Canadian bonds so fair game to check in with your big lender. Also prob didn’t want to reach out to Trump from a position of weakness. Once they made it public that China is willing to talk then they have a little more footing to talk to Trump.

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@KobeissiLetter Wouldn’t yen rates being higher than USD rates cause the yen carry trade to unwind even faster?

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@Micro2Macr0 RSI upward cross on MSTR/STRF suggests market is beginning to go risk on. Looking good so far.

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@KanekoaTheGreat @RealEJAntoni @DonaldJTrumpJr @Timcast @dbongino @DavidSacks If you wanna make the case for “middle class” then you need the stats for median household, not aggregates. I’m not saying Trump won’t still be better than Biden, but rn the data you’re presenting doesn’t align with the statement you’re making…

[Bitcoin For Corporations @BitcoinForCorps]

MSCI’s proposal uses a 50% balance-sheet threshold for index eligibility.

51% in real estate or equities = Included ✅
51% in Bitcoin = Excluded 🚫

Why are digital assets being singled out?

Join the call for MSCI to withdraw this rule:
👉 https://t.co/ylANZGMn4r

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@gralebo @KEdge23 Can you explain what “bankrupt the country” means in financial terms?

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@KobeissiLetter SPX/Gold still in structural decline…

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@BullTheoryio Little bit of cash tightness in the system

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@ryQuant @michaelselig Do you track your portfolio performance/growth in USD terms or in BTC terms?

[Roberto Gargurevich @gargu_R]

@ryQuant @michaelselig PE based on BTC $ Gain means you’re still running on a fiat USD basis