Aaron Garfinkel

~UF~“Cliché motivational Quote”~ Real Estate and Macro Analyst

[Aaron Garfinkel @garrrrrf]

Let's have a read to start the New Year. Just wrote the following thought piece!

Three Themes for the New Year: Understanding Envy in the Modern World - Authenticity - Valuing Family and Community

Happy New Year 2025!, by @garrrrrf https://t.co/w0o6LvQAI7

[Alex Prompter @alex_verem]

Let me trace the timeline here because nobody's connecting it.

Step 1: Scrape the entire internet. Every book, every article, every conversation, every piece of art, every forum post. Do it without asking. Do it without paying.

Step 2: Train a model on all of it. Call it "artificial intelligence."

Step 3: Go to BlackRock's Infrastructure Summit and announce: "We see a future where intelligence is a utility, like electricity or water, and people buy it from us on a meter."

Step 3 is where you sell people's own knowledge back to them. On a meter.

They took the collective output of human thought, compressed it into a model, and now they want to charge you by the token to access a version of what you and everyone you know already created.

One Reddit user put it perfectly: "They stole all this data from us, the people, our life's work, creativity, art, by devouring the internet and blowing through all copyright laws. Now they want to sell it back to us in the form of a utility."

Imagine if someone photocopied every book in the public library, burned the library down, and then opened a subscription service for the copies.

That's the metered intelligence business model.

And they're pitching it to infrastructure investors as though they invented water.

[AMARAL Capital @AmaralPartners]

Wherever $MPT goes, the tenants seem to fail financially.

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

On $MPT - most are unaware - but they have a sizable Revolver due in JUN. The firm has material NEG FCF and NEEDS the Revolver to extend post JUN.
Given the KNOWN ills of $MPT IMHO whoever renews this Revolver is IN on the Scheme.
- remember that last part.

[AMARAL Capital @AmaralPartners]

This is fine! $MPT

Palmetto General owes the city about $1.35 million in unpaid water and sewer payments, according to documents obtained by the Herald. Its sister Hialeah Hospital owes about $1.03 million.

Read more at: https://t.co/r2oIopetAu
https://t.co/IWdHHaMvvM

[Aaron Garfinkel @garrrrrf]

@Delta my flight got delayed because of a mechanical issue today. Your team gave me a meal voucher, great! That meal voucher was 12 bucks! Y’all know good and well that inflation doesn’t have anything we eat at the airport for 12 bucks! Egregious and slap in the face!

[AMARAL Capital @AmaralPartners]

$MPT can’t stop burning cash, bc it can’t stop lending to its insolvent tenants.

[AMARAL Capital @AmaralPartners]

“Rent continues to ramp as expected.” $MPT

Got it, Ed, so you expected to have to lend to your tenants continuously to record that “rent.” Aka you lied to investors (again) about the need to lend, and all you have is the same tired bag of parlor tricks.

[Reggie Chatman Jr. @ReggieChatman]

The solo spotlight on the opposing pitcher coming into the game in Atlanta is insane

[Aaron Garfinkel @garrrrrf]

@AmaralPartners Can’t believe this charade is still going. It’s now 2026…….

[AMARAL Capital @AmaralPartners]

Why is it that $MPT NEVER discloses defaults by its largest, material tenants?

Why is it that it takes individuals to find these, and force mgmt to acknowledge and discuss them?

Such as Apollo/MAM in December 2023? All of the Prospect defaults over 2023-2024? Prospect in 2022? Ernest in 2023? Pipeline in 2022? HSA in 2025? HSA in 2026? NOR in 2026? AHS in 2026? Vibra over 2023-2026?

It’s almost like they’re trying to hide something!

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

IMHO (this promotional ad) there is nothing -safe- about a yield that is 700bp above the 1yr UST. Especially one directly marketing to retail on X.

[Johnny Szerdi @johnnyszerdi]

This should end well…

[Fernando Valle, CFA @HedgeyeENERGY]

Damage is literally (and figuratively) done, no way for oil prices to drop sharply in 2026, unless we have a massive demand shock.

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

$MPT's hot potato - debt due Oct 2026:
IMHO they need to renew a revolver near-term to pay down this piece of debt due in 3Q26.
- been a shell game for years now
- banks unloaded their risk (most of it)
Watch this piece of debt:

[Jonesy @HedgeyeDJ]

Private credit defaults levels are now higher than they were during the pandemic.

A thread 🧵 with some thoughts on this slow moving train wreck.

[Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory]

I mean, this is a disaster.

[Vintage Maps @vintagemapstore]

Terrain map of the state of California

[SportsCenter @SportsCenter]

BAM BREAKS KOBE'S 81-POINT RECORD AND SCORES 83!

THE SECOND-MOST IN NBA HISTORY AFTER WILT 🤯

[Will @Will_N11]

16-2 from the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. What a season. Go Gators! 🐊

[Will @Will_N11]

Kentucky lost? To the Defending National Champion and Reigning Southeastern Conference Champion Florida Gators?