Gary Chai @garychai - Twitter Profile

garychai retweeted

3 months ago

A Jane Street trader recognized my dashboard before I did Coffee shop in Lisbon. Time Out Market. I was answering emails, the bot was running on the side. He sat down without asking. "That's a Polymarket terminal. You wrote that yourself" I did. 27 days ago. Haven't touched it since. He laughed once. "Define haven't touched" I haven't opened the code in 27 days. The bot trades on its own. I check it Saturday mornings. He pulled his chair around to my side of the table. "Walk me through it" A green fill landed on the screen mid-sentence. +$94 on an ETH ETF flow market. The agents do it. There are four of them. They live in a queue.json file on a $5 VPS in Germany. They talk through the queue. They do not talk to me. Agent 1 reads the book. Polymarket has 500 active markets at any time. The official Rust CLI lets a bot watch all of them with no API key. https://t.co/SbyxXxEMbe It scores each one on three things. Gap above 7 cents. Depth above $50K. Resolution under 168 hours. 93% of markets die at this gate. 487 become 35. He stopped me. "Where is the edge actually coming from" The wallets. Polymarket is on-chain. 86 million trades, every entry, every exit, every wallet, all public. Somebody indexed it. https://t.co/klxt0tuTYF I wrote one Claude prompt. Rank every wallet with more than 100 trades and a win rate above 70%, sort by profit, export the top 50. Claude chewed through 14,000 wallets in 4 minutes. Returned 47. The top 20 of those 47 made more than the bottom 13,000 wallets combined. He went quiet. "That's not a feature. That's a list of people to copy" That's exactly what agent 2 does. Pulls the live holdings of the 47 every 30 seconds. Cross-checks against the 35 markets that survived the scanner. If 3 of the 47 are in the same position, it's real. Copytrade if you don't want to build it: https://t.co/N2byLbLHH9 The trades I ignore are more important than the ones I take. Sports markets are priced too tight, win rate 52% at best. Markets under $50K depth, slippage eats the edge. Holding to settlement gives back 15-30% of profit every single time. Agent 4 fixes that one. The 47 whales exit at 73% of max profit on average. They never hold to resolution. They redeploy. https://t.co/AgUH1LBYQX Mine cuts at 85% of expected move or a 3x volume spike. Whichever comes first. He asked about consensus. Three sub-strategies vote on every trade. Arbitrage. Convergence. Whale copy. Two agree, full Kelly. One alone, quarter Kelly. Disagree, no trade. That one rule killed 40% of losing trades the day I added it. He pulled out his phone. "What was the seed" $200. "And now" $14,300. 271 trades. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. He stared at the wallet for a long time. "At Jane Street we run thirty engineers and a $400M book to chase Sharpe 2. You're doing it from a Time Out Market with a Hetzner box" The full stack: Claude API $20 Hetzner $5 Repos free Total $25/mo The seventh repo is the one that ties it together. https://t.co/DtDFYAifki 53,000 lines of TypeScript. I use three of seven strategies. Three focused agents beat seven unfocused ones. He DMed me on Sunday. "Spent yesterday rebuilding it. Mine made $11 on a test wallet overnight. The whale layer is the part nobody on my desk would think of" I told him the layer is in the repo. The data is on chain. The repos are free. The window is open. I am still not touching it.

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garychai retweeted

BNO News

@BNONews

over 1 year ago

BREAKING: Video shows crash of Jeju Air Flight 2216 in South Korea. 181 people on board

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Gary Chai @garychai

about 2 years ago

@godofprompt Send

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garychai retweeted

Alex Prompter

@alex_prompter

about 2 years ago

GPT-4o is just INSANE 🔥 But 99% of users don't know how to use it. That's why I made this "FREE Prompt pack for productivity" to help you. To get it, simply: • Like & RT • Reply "Send" • Follow (I will DM you)