An under-discussed narrative with tokenization is the dollar liquidity stress it will cause.
I believe the scaling of tokenized assets will lead to a massive dollar funding shortage, the shortest gap ever between the risk-free-rate and the market’s expected return, and the most volatile global market ever.
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The benefit of permissionless tokenization is two-fold: capital efficiency & USD accessibility.
On capital efficiency; instantaneous, 24/7 settlement on blockchains allows for elevated LTVs and more aggressive lending than traditional finance. This leads to directionally-exposed users taking on significantly more leverage.
This cannot be replicated in equity repo markets because of substantially lower LTVs from delayed settlement.
On USD accessibility; permissionless lending markets accept deposits from anyone irrespective of their background, meaning they can offer tremendous liquidity at the best interest rates.
This results in an environment where leverage-hungry participants have access to the deepest and cheapest liquidity.
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As the demand for tokenized assets continues to increase more participants will opt to use them as collateral. The second-order impacts of this will be a strain on onchain USD liquidity and consequently increased USD lending rates. This will create a reflexive flywheel of increased stablecoin liquidity, more borrowing, and higher rates.
To add on, rational borrowers will be willing to pay above-market rates for liquidity against their equities, given the stock market's expected ~10% annual return.
Could you imagine the demand for an S&P500 structured product that loops the underlying 10x at a ~5% interest rate?
The demand for equity looping will reach incomprehensible levels, resulting in a massive influx of stablecoins, tokenized assets, and onchain flows.
At a large enough scale, this can meaningfully shrink the USD inflows into the treasury, resulting in higher rates needed to combat the surplus of borrowing against equities. This is because demand for equities as collateral will outpace stablecoin growth.
Lastly, with the influx of tokenized asset borrowing, the volatility of the market will reach historic levels. Instead of controlled swings in either direction, the price action will be based on liquidation spirals, similar to crypto. Billions will be made by lending markets, liquidators, and arbitrageurs.
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The ability to borrow against tokenized equities at scale is going to usher in the next economic boom.
There will be winners and losers, but we have never seen a market like this before.
The students of @GatorBlockchain have made waves recently on their initiatives to reignite crypto at college campuses
This November, in Ann Arbor, you'll be able to hear from them directly as they'll be attending #MBC2024
Students should be among the earliest adopters of Web3. But, currently, they’re not using the tech in the numbers we might expect, says @BSturisky, research analyst at @Delphi_Digital and president of @GatorBlockchain.
Here's how to fix that.
Opinion.
https://t.co/ZFbLIlQHNT
Gator Blockchain will be providing all club members with a Pro Subscription to @Delphi_Digital
Delphi is known to be the best crypto research firm in the world, and we are excited to be able to share that research with our members.
Some great points here and def worth a read
Tbh the industry needs to do a better job at developing talent, and it starts with supporting student orgs like @GatorBlockchain and the hyper driven leaders behind them
No, I don't mean webinars or merch. I mean in person workshops, onboarding sessions, boot camps and other forms of real commitment. Think @Dorm_DAO
If you're looking to grow your ecosystem or team, why not reach out to Benjamin and help him shape the vision he has for Gator Blockchain?
I'm sure the dividends would be fruitful
Crypto has a real issue that is not commonly discussed:
There is a stigma against crypto within college kids and the younger generations.
As a sophomore in college myself, I have seen this firsthand.
A thread on how @GatorBlockchain is reigniting interest in the space 🧵
On profitability within prediction markets:
Prediction market profitability is not just making the correct predictions - it’s simultaneously beating the “risk-free” yield (i.e treasury bills, lending stablecoins in Aave, something of the sort).
1. A trader buys 1000 NO shares of Vivek Ramaswamy in the 2024 Presidential Election on June 5th, 2024. The shares acquired have a cost-basis of $980. At the time, treasury bills are yielding 6%.
2. 5 months later the presidential election finalizes and Vivek does not win.
3. The trader redeems his 1000 NO shares for $1000, netting him a 2% return, annualized yield of 4.8%. This is under the 6% annualized yield he would have received from treasury bills.
If a position’s ‘best-case’ yields < “risk-free” rate, that trader should not have taken the position. This is only the case in a non-composable prediction system.
In a composable system, where shares of prediction markets are tokenized, there are alternate reasons, such as advanced derivatives, for taking a position besides yielding a return > “risk-free” rate.
Let’s examine the example above with Vivek, but this time the trader used perpetual swaps.
1. A perpetual swaps platform is built on top of a composable prediction system.
2. The trader uses the same $980 to purchase NO shares on Vivek at 2x leverage, acquiring 2000 shares.
3. he election finalizes and Vivek does not win.
4. The trader closes his position for a 4% return (9.6% annualized yield), beating the return he would have received from the “risk-free” rate. This assumes Vivek’s odds of losing did not fall enough to liquidate the trader.
The more composable a share is, the more value said share holds, indirectly creating accurate probability through inducing capital efficiency.