grossdomesticproblem

The slow-motion disaster of the U.S. national debt 💸 🎙 Hosted by @williamlglass 🎧 New episodes biweekly — listen & subscribe 👇👇

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

THE SHUTDOWN CIRCUS IS BACK! Here's why Government Shutdowns Don't Work!

1:05 How the budget process is supposed to work
3:30 What happens during a shutdown
6:00 The hidden costs you don’t see
8:30 A real solution? The Prevent Government Shutdowns Act

[In the Black @intheblacktn]

https://t.co/Wf3Uz4VW1o

[Marc Goldwein @MarcGoldwein]

We've reached what economists call the Oh $h*t moment.

If current interest rates persist:
🔴Debt increases $2 trillion
🔴Interest consumes 30% of revenue
🔴Mortgage costs rise $96,500
🔴R>G by 2029, with a 75 bp gap by 2036
🔴America enters a debt spiral

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

Amazing to hear Iran critics simultaneously insist that it demonstrates the obsolescence of Cold War-era equipment and tactics AND that such ordinance is desperately necessary to protect Taiwan.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

One wonders whether the professor accepts "written" work that makes use of the same "tools" his tweets use.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

The Iran ceasefire is being called a “pause.”

It’s not.

It’s a revelation:
The U.S. used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome.
That’s a structural shift in power.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

@jtalexander I mean, in fairness, it was Pope Leo X who declared him Defender of the Faith, Thirteen years before Henry called himself Head of the Church.

Sometimes, we get heady from previous victories and underestimate the cost of the next ones.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

Shameful and dishonest.

$1.5T, while a significant increase, brings defense spending to roughly 5% of GDP, significantly lower than what has been seen even in my short lifetime - let alone “modern history.” It was DOUBLE this in Vietnam.

The same paper that wrote of “cuts” to Medicaid in late June because the outlay increased by a smaller amount suddenly forgets about relative measures, because cooking the stats keeps the outrage machine running.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

I just want us to be the American the Japanese think we are!

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

@NicholaswDunn

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

The Wizzard of Ozz!!!!!

[HAWK @HawkEmDownChris]

Age yourself by naming an MLB shortstop you grew up watching.

I’ll start: Derek Jeter.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

For sure, one thing this war has taught is that putting expert in your bio has a pretty much 100% inverse correlation with actual expertise.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

Signal: CBO projects ~$1.85T deficit in FY2026 (~5.8% of GDP).
https://t.co/iMSKoYX3rM

Exposure: Net interest approaching $1T annually and rising.

Mismatch: Politics debates new initiatives. Interest is the fastest-growing line item.

Adjustment: Watch what grows without a vote.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

Signal: Net interest projected to roughly double over the next decade.
https://t.co/iMSKoYWvCe

Exposure: Interest competes directly with discretionary spending.

Mismatch: Culture wars dominate headlines. Debt service dominates budgets.

Adjustment: Fiscal gravity is quiet until it isn’t.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

Signal: CBO projects ~$1.85T deficit in FY2026 (~5.8% GDP).
https://t.co/f892X9ASBP

Exposure: Net annual interest approaching $1T and rising.

Mismatch: Politics debates new initiatives. "Yesterday" is the fastest growing expense.

Adjustment: Watch what grows without a vote.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

@MarcGoldwein @katekgen @BudgetHawks

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

MARKET OPEN TWEET

The riskiest trade is believing the Fed controls the long end.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

This is what late-cycle leadership looks like: one sector soaks up all the oxygen — returns, earnings, capex, power grids — while the rest of the economy stagnates.

It’s not just an AI story, it’s a fiscal one: when deficits drive demand, capital chases the bottlenecks. Today that bottleneck is compute + power. Tomorrow it may be something else. But the imbalance is structural.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

@OPRArgentina @grok can you transcribe?

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

@SamRo @TheStalwart Every cycle comes with fresh slogans, but the tape only rewards the ones backed by fiscal math. Easy-money eras inflate everything; debt-dominance eras deflate the hype.

The only narrative with a perfect record? Governments overspend, and markets eventually reprice it.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

@DiMartinoBooth We’ve seen this movie before: canals, railroads, dot-coms.

Speculative manias always start with dreams of productivity gains—and end with a sorting process. The technology is real, but so is the graveyard of capital.

[grossdomesticproblem @GDPcast]

The dollar is Bretton Woods’ last survivor. But the graveyard is filling fast.