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$VRA $SOL $TRX $SFM #BTC $BTC $RNDR $XRP $THETA $FTT $FET $UNI $NULS $ICP $MATIC $LPT
The longest bear market in history for #Bitcoin
It might feel like a ghost town in crypto. It might feel like there's not even going to be a bull cycle anymore and I understand why these thoughts are there.
But why?
Well, people base their decisions on history. 👇
Historically, and if you're in the markets for a longer period, you know that Bitcoin goes through cycles. These cycles have a period of expansion, big correction, accumulation and renewed expansion.
However, not every cycle is on the same length and that's what's expressed in the chart.
The current bear market is relatively comparable to what we've witnessed in 2015. A period of sideways action, where the faith in crypto is slowly getting lost too, despite the fact of solid fundamental growth.
Right now, price of Bitcoin is nowhere near the valuation of the peak in November '21. It's down more than 50% and in a bear market of 490 days.
I'm not even discussing altcoins or NFTs, as those have been dropping by a bigger percentage.
I know how it feels. Most people who read this have been experiencing their first heavy bear cycle and it hurts. It did the same for me in 2018/2019, or the COVID-crash, or the current bear market.
And just because it hurts, you'll learn. You'll keep moving forward and you'll identify new opportunities and experiences you'll be using later in the cycle or the next cycle.
As Bitcoin is slowly getting adopted into governments and institutions, recently;
- Blackrock having stakes in mining companies (and Valkyrie too).
- Multiple Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF applications.
- ETF in Europe going live.
- Hongkong opening for crypto.
- Oman investing more than a billion in Bitcoin.
The thing is, during the current period, these events are not being reflected in price at all. They lag behind as the market is stuck in the 'bear market modus', as the past 2 years price has been falling.
That's where your emotions are coming from. 'Why is the market not moving at all?'
From my experience in the previous cycle, it takes a long time, as we're currently experiencing the 'time capitulation'.
However, after that stage has passed (which might be a in a few months), the expansion and acceleration usually tricks you.
Sit on your hands, identify where your pain comes from, learn, and use those experiences in the coming years.
A massive week for #Crypto and #Bitcoin
Next week is going to be filled with many events. Not solely for #Crypto, but also on the landscape for the macro economy.
It will most likely put a big move on the markets for #Gold, $DXY, the Yields and the indices.
What are the big events? 👇
For the U.S. dollar and Yields:
- Consumer Confidence & Job Openings on Tuesday 4.00PM European Time.
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & Prelim GDP on Wednesday 2.15PM & 2.30PM European Time.
- Core PCE (key for FOMC) and Unemployment claims on Thursday 3.30PM European Time.
- Unemployment Rate & PMI on Friday 2.30PM and 4.00PM European Time.
These events are going to have a big impact on the Dollar, through which this will flow into Gold and the Indices and, most likely, into #Bitcoin.
Scenario: Unemployment lower, PCE higher, Confidence higher and PMI higher. That will be a push for the $DXY and continuation of the expection of 'higher for longer' on the interest rate policy.
Remember; Currently we're having a case where markets are already extremely positive on further hikes on the interest rates. This is priced in, so any positive surprise on the downside will have an impact on the markets as a whole.
Scenario 2: Unemployment higher, PCE lower, Confidence lower, PMI lower. That's the trigger that we'll be seeing risk-on assets rally and $DXY / Yields sell-off substantially. This will push Gold and push #Bitcoin.
What's inside the #Crypto markets?
- Grayscale vs. SEC news. The question whether $GBTC can become an ETF is, most likely, going to be answered during this week as the deadlines are quickly approaching.
- Spot ETF first deadlines for Blackrock and more ETF propositions. On September 1st, the deadlines are approaching.
Expectations are that we'll be seeing a delay on the approval of the ETF and don't get any news on Grayscale, but what if we get positive news and Grayscale wins?
Big week coming up!
@kaaldhairya You did amazing job guys. Good job done is always acompanied by success. Now let's witness #Shibarium becoming great and #Bone reaching the moon.
@Cointelegraph From the #altcoins $XRP probably with $doge being second. Also, $shib has a prety big following with the release of #Shibarium the interest is coming back in all products of that team. Those are my top 3.
The increasing popularity of #DeFi is being driven by a number of factors, including the high interest rates offered, the lack of regulation, and the growing demand for alternative financial products and services. DeFi is still in its early stage, but it's potential is enormous.
The last #cryptocrash in the #cryptocurrency market has been caused by a number of factors, including the global economic slowdown, the war in #Ukraine, and the regulatory crackdown in #China. Experts believe that the market is oversold and that it is poised for a rebound soon.