Aleksandr Stolypin

Pre-IPO & VC investor with a few hits (Cerebras, Circle, CoreWeave, Ripple, Discord, Lightmatter).
GP @ IPOSharks (40+ SPVs)
Ex-pro-daytrader (2011-2019)

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

There are only 4 ways to extreme wealth and all of them are about betting money:

​Fund Management: Other people's money → Other people's business

​Investing: Your money → Other people's business

​Raising Capital: Other people's money → Your business

​Bootstrapping: Your money → Your business

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

🇺🇸250 Years of America

No other country in the world, in all of human history, has contributed as much to technology, science, philosophy and culture, and the economy as the United States. The abundance and the celebration of life that we enjoy today were built on the foundation laid by the USA.

👉 Era 1. 1776–1825

1️⃣ 17888 – Constitution. This was the birth of world democracy. Today all developed states have constitutions based on inalienable human freedoms and rights and on independent branches of government.
2️⃣ Benjamin Franklin, the Founding Father, invented the lightning rod. Europe at the time strongly resisted many scientific breakthroughs because of religious dogma. Scientists from the States gained freedom from these prejudices, which allowed new technologies to be adopted quickly. Franklin made a large personal contribution to this turning point.
3️⃣ The Elon Musk of his day, Oliver Evans, created the first assembly-line production in 1784, doubling the efficiency of manual labor. He also invented the high-pressure steam engine in 1801 and mounted it on a cart, which became a prototype of the automobile. Then, in 1807, another American, Fulton, picked up the idea and launched a revolution in river navigation.

👉 Era 2. 1826–1875

1️⃣ In 1838 Morse invents a language for electricity, which begins a revolution in communications — the telegraph.
2️⃣ In 1846 Morton makes a leap in medicine — applying general anesthesia for the first time, which makes it possible to perform complex operations.
3️⃣ In 1869 Americans build the first transcontinental railroad. A railroad revolution in logistics on such a scale motivated many countries to follow the example of the USA.

👉 Era 3. 1876–1925

1️⃣ 1903 – the invention of flight by the Wright brothers. The US also later became the first to launch commercial airlines.
2️⃣ 1913 – Henry Ford invents the assembly line for producing cars. The time dropped from 12 hours to 93 minutes. This was the start of a transportation revolution that, within 15 years, would completely displace horses all over the world.
3️⃣ The 1920s. The beginning of global cultural domination. Hollywood conquers the world. Jazz music became the forefather of all modern styles — Rock, Rock 'n' Roll, R&B, Rap, and even electronic music.

👉 Era 4. 1926–1976

1️⃣ 1947 – the creation of the transistor; this became the start of the computer revolution.
2️⃣ 1944 – victory in World War II, establishing total domination in economics and politics.
The dollar becomes the global currency (44 countries recognized US supremacy). English becomes the international language. The creation of international organizations headquartered in the US (the UN, the World Bank).
3️⃣ The creation of the atomic bomb, which subsequently led to the halting of global conflicts. (The war with the USSR remained cold.)
4️⃣ 1969 – the Apollo landing on the Moon. Technological domination that marked the beginning of the end of the confrontation with the USSR.
5️⃣ 1969 – the creation of ARPANET, i.e., the prototype of the Internet.

👉 Era 5. 1976–2026

1️⃣ 1978 – the creation of the global positioning system, GPS, via space satellites. It was used only for military purposes. The opening of GPS to everyone on the planet in 2000 radically changed the economy over the past 26 years.
2️⃣ 2007 – the invention of the first smartphone (the Apple iPhone). This became the quintessence of all American high technology — chips, GPS, cellular communication, the internet.
3️⃣ 2012 – CRISPR – gene editing, a revolution in biotechnology. Only now are the first medicines beginning to reach readiness; they will cure many diseases.
4️⃣ 2015 – a revolution in space. SpaceX invents the reusable space rocket, which immediately cuts the cost of flights tenfold and marks the birth of many startups that are, right now, building the foundation for future progress. The Starlink global space internet system is the first product of this transformation.
5️⃣ 2017 – Google invents transformer neural networks (the wave began back in 2012). This drives progress and leads to the birth of the chatbots ChatGPT and Claude, which have already changed the face of many industries. And, of course, autonomous vehicles — in the States people are already driving on autopilot en masse, and soon this will come to the rest of the world.

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

I just tried Claude chat after a 1 year pause. 10 minutes later I decided to switch to @AnthropicAI from Gemini. It's an astonishing progress and leap to Singularity!

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

AI Psychosis in the Valley

Originally coined in 2024, "AI Psychosis" described the mental health fallout from people treating chatbots like humans or deities—leading to delusions of grandeur, ruined marriages, and lost jobs.

However, the term only went mainstream in Silicon Valley in 2026. It's also known as "AI mania" or "God-mode."

😮 The core driver is a hyper-productivity dopamine loop. When you realize AI can execute tasks 10x to 1000x faster and spark previously unimaginable ideas, you simply can't stop.

1️⃣ "One more prompt" syndrome: You forget to eat or sleep, constantly chasing the next dopamine hit from generating something new.
2️⃣ Illusion of limitlessness: You try to sync with the machine's 24/7 pace, completely ignoring your biological limits.
3️⃣ Manic irritability: The friction of the slow, physical world—or dealing with people who don't use AI—triggers severe frustration and even aggression.
4️⃣ Tunnel vision: You hyper-focus on ultra-niche tasks, losing sight of the big picture.

👉 The Antidote: To avoid the "AI wow-effect" trap and inevitable burnout, you must remember you are just a biological "meatbag." Ground yourself with strict working hours, proper sleep, nutrition, sports, and time offline.
🎁 The Neuroscience of "God-Mode"From a neurological perspective, the AI dopamine loop hijacks the brain using a "variable ratio reward schedule"—the exact same mechanism that makes slot machines addictive. Because you never know exactly how good, surprising, or insightful the AI's next output will be, your brain releases a massive surge of dopamine in anticipation of the prompt resolving. This makes highly driven, high-performing professionals uniquely susceptible to "AI Mania."

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

How to distinguish the God Mode from AI Psychosis?

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

The four most dangerous words in investing are, “This time is different.”

The twelve most dangerous words in investing are, ‘The four most dangerous words in investing are, “This time is different.”’

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

Many are now whispering about the start of the Singularity—the moment AI breaks the current growth trend, bending the line into a vertical exponential curve (the "hockey stick" of venture startups).

😮 Elon Musk just poured fuel on the fire:

Predicts US GDP growth of 10%+ in the next 12-18 months.

Suggests that in 5 years, we could see annual economic growth exceeding 100%.

Are we ready for exponential economics? 🧠

#AI #Economy #Stocks #Singularity #Tech

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

🚀 Are we already in the Singularity?

The unstoppable rise of the US stock market has been ongoing since 2009. Major panics now look like minor blips on the trend line:

2010 - Flash Crash (HFT algos)
2011 - EU Debt Crisis
2015 - China Production Crisis
2018 - Trade War onset
2020 - Global Pandemic
2022 - US Inflation Crisis
2025 - Trump Tariffs

👉 Since the 2009 macro bottom, the market is up 920% (17 years). That’s 15% CAGR, taking 1st place globally.

For comparison over the same period: 🇩🇪 Germany +520% 🇮🇳 India +490% 🇯🇵 Japan +350% 🇫🇷 France +200% 🇬🇧 UK +170% 🇨🇳 China +125% (Russia +125% / 4.6% CAGR)

The gap is widening. 🇺🇸

[Aleksandr Stolypin @generalincept]

🇺🇸 All this growth is fueled by one thing: The Tech Revolution.

From the internet to smartphones, US innovation dominates. Everyone on the planet uses products from US giants daily: Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, SpaceX, OpenAI, Salesforce, Netflix, Airbnb...

💸 Since late 2022 (ChatGPT), the US has led a tectonic shift: AI.Unprecedented capital is flowing into data centers and new models.

The results are already showing: 👉 In Q3 2025, US GDP grew by 4.3% (annualized). Analysts expected 3.3%. This is a massive surprise for the economy.

[Matt Grimm @mttgrmm]

Secondary markets are rife with fraud and bad actors, and it pains me to see these bottom feeders profiting off Anduril's growth while fleecing retail investors through unreasonable or opaque fee structures.

In this week's episode of nonsense, @teamignitevc (a fund we've never taken a meeting with or had any contact with whatsoever) founded by @brianrbell (who we've never met) is soliciting investors via a public Google Doc to invest in an SPV that will in turn invest in another SPV that will in turn potentially enter into a Forward Contract with a (supposedly, though unnamed) early Anduril employee: https://t.co/33d3lRCxTr

Few problems here.

First off, so-called "Forward Contracts" are notoriously hard to settle in private companies, and counterparty risk is extremely real (e.g. what about the many complicating corner cases like acquisitions where shares don't "trade" or marriages/divorces/deaths where ownership of underlying shares is complicated)... just generally a risky structure to close that I don't think most folks actually understand.

Second, this "Deal Memo" includes basically no details about Anduril's performance, no revenue figures whatsoever, no product specifics... almost as if it's soliciting investors to invest on hype and momentum and not fundamentals. Generally I'd advise folks to be skeptical of any "deal memo" lacking basic details.

Third, Forward Contracts are explicitly disallowed by Anduril's stock plan and bylaws, as we detail here: https://t.co/laVUsB1kfR ... which means that Anduril will never consent to Team Ignite's SPV actually taking possession of these shares while we are privately held. Zero chance.

And finally, the memo spends most of it's time talking about the structure and fees... which are INSANE. A double-layered SPV with all legal and administrative costs passed through, in addition to an 8% upfront fee, 3% annual fee for two years, 20% carried interest, and... the craziest part... an implied price per share that is completely insane (in this case, the implied pps is ~115% higher than the most recent preferred raise from like 9 months ago). Flattered, I suppose, but also puts these investors in an almost absurd position by paying more than double the pps of our most recent transaction. 😬

As stated at the top, I don't know Brian or Team Ignite at all, maybe they're kind wholesome people and this is all a big misunderstanding... but if I were an investor looking at this "opportunity," I'd run for the hills.

[Pedro Domingos @pmddomingos]

Matrix multiplication is now a multi-trillion dollar business.

[Michael Seibel @mwseibel]

The moment we started referring to companies who’ve raised at a billion dollar valuation as “billion dollar companies” we helped to shift the focus of startup founders from their customers to their investors. I prefer to call companies with a billion dollars in revenue “billion dollar companies”. In the first case - all it takes is an investor making a bet with someone else’s money. In the second, a billion dollars+ of value had to be delivered to customers. These are worlds apart.

[Gabor Gurbacs @gaborgurbacs]

The global derivatives market is a $2+ QUADRILLION (2,000+ TRILLION) ticking time-bomb. When banks fail, derivatives won't just unwind in an orderly fashion. Few people understand this.

These are some of the top U.S. banks ranked by derivatives exposure (double-digit TRILLIONs).

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

There are confusions between terms: lending, staking, yield, earn, savings, etc. There are subtle, but important differences. I usually understand/define them as the following. 1/5

[Alf @MacroAlf]

LeBron scores the historical one, and almost everybody is watching it happen through their phones.

A picture of modern society.

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

Slot machines are absurd:

— 70% of total Nevada gaming revenue
— In 2022, its $9B revenue was more than North American box office ($7.5B)
— The slot machine at Las Vegas airport recently passed $1B in lifetime revenue

[Farida Bemba Nabourema @Farida_N]

France has the 4th largest gold reserve in the world. How?
France holds 90% of the gold reserves of 15 African countries and pays 0% interest on what it makes from those reserves since 1945. These nations however borrow from #France from their own reserves with interest!

[Ben Tossell @bentossell]

Everyone

[Tyler @TylerDurden]

Your childhood was an illusion.