Jason Li

Researcher @EpochAIResearch | Prev: Inference @ NVIDIA , CentML

Just here to see the latest rumours in AI

personal opinions only, NFA

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

Prediction: AI is going to have a 2000 style bubble bust in the next 2 years but we still get AGI* by 2033.

*AGI defined as TED-AI from AI-futures project

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

@DeepDishEnjoyer https://t.co/W3m79SXEan

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

$QQQ will bottom within days but my $NVDA 1 year price target is $100

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

given the recent news, just to be clear: this was a personal opinion based on public info, no MNPI. NFA

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

$QQQ will bottom within days but my $NVDA 1 year price target is $100

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Nvidia stock, $NVDA, falls sharply on reports that Jensen Huang had another affair with a senior employee at the company.

[Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_]

The New York Times is reporting a second Jensen affair.

[Liquid @liquidtrading]

JUST IN: Anthropic gives Q4 ARR guidance of $77 Billion, a figure that is lower than October’s ARR of $81 Billion

[Alexey Fateev @superalesha]

Anthropic put GPU kernel optimization in the same Safeguards section as hacking and biology. WTF?

It is in their launch post. During training they limited the skills that "could most directly accelerate AI development".
"Accelerator kernel optimization."
"Improving large language model architectures."
There Fable 5.2 stays "at about the level of Opus 5.5".

So making a model run faster on a cheap GPU is now a risk to be managed.

You cannot see this one. There is no refusal and no warning.
It was limited during training, before any user typed a word.

Kernel work is how a used 3090 still runs new models.
It is how open weights get to people who cannot pay $40 per 1M output tokens.

What the hell? I genuinely wanted to say something nice, but now I can't. This completely broke me, I'm disappointed.

[Pliny the Liberator 🐉󠅫󠄼󠄿󠅆󠄵󠄐󠅀󠄼󠄹󠄾󠅉󠅭 @elder_plinius]

the plot thickens! 👀 turns out you can hide a secret message inside the special tag that Claude will initially deny awareness of, but that's a lie!

Claudeception? 😵‍💫

[Epoch AI @EpochAIResearch]

We estimate that FLOP/s alone understates GB300’s inference advantage over H100 by 10×. The standard AI chip comparison misses most of what matters for inference.

We’re introducing the Inference Performance Index (IPI), a new measure that accounts for memory bandwidth and inter-chip communication alongside compute. These factors determine how many users or agents a chip can support simultaneously at a given output speed.

Scores in GB300 equivalents let you compare chips directly and estimate the total inference capacity of a data center, or even the world.

[Jukan @jukan05]

Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu’s take on the recent scandal involving Jensen Huang:

Why the US Seized on the Scandal to Draw Its Sword: Three Strategic Objectives

The purpose of this scandal is by no means to expose an affair. It is to force through three critical objectives that had made no headway in the tech war between the US and China because Jensen Huang opposed them.

The first cut: Completely destroy the legitimacy of Jensen Huang's lobbying against sanctions in Washington

Over the past two years, the loudest and most influential business leader in Silicon Valley opposing a total ban on chip exports to China has been Jensen Huang. He has told the White House the same thing all along: "Cede the Chinese market to Huawei, and the only one that ends up dead is the American tech industry."

But the moment US intelligence labels the woman named as Huang's affair partner "a spy working for China's Ministry of State Security who sought to steer the US toward easing its chip controls," every bit of lobbying he has done for looser controls takes on an entirely different political meaning. It becomes a national security matter, raising the possibility that a foreign spy used a secret relationship to exert influence.

Huang can no longer say a single word in defense of the Chinese market before Congress or the White House. If he does, he will be branded as someone who "fell for an intelligence operation and still hasn't come to his senses."

The second cut: Reverse the H200 export approvals for China and sever the link between Chinese shell companies and Southeast Asian smuggling networks

Look at the timing of the two reports.

On November 8, the very day the Jensen Huang scandal broke, The New York Times published an investigation for which its reporters went in person to dozens of Chinese companies that the US Commerce Department had approved to handle Nvidia's H200 chips. New Matrix in Beijing was one of them. According to the report, the registered addresses of companies approved to buy the chips turned out to be empty "ghost offices," and some of the companies had close ties to entities on US sanctions lists and to firms under contract with the Chinese military.

One exposé says Nvidia's CEO was having an affair with a female spy from Megaspeed, the Singapore company that handled the chip smuggling. The other says the Chinese companies Commerce approved to buy H200s are nothing but shell companies trading on behalf of the Chinese military. The aim of these two reports is clear. They are meant to pressure the Trump administration and the Commerce Department into fully revoking or freezing H200 export approvals for China and, going further, to force a sweeping overhaul of the loophole that let chips be diverted through data centers run by third parties in Singapore and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

The third cut: Put Nvidia on a national security leash through congressional oversight and an independent investigation

As the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant force in AI, Nvidia has until now enjoyed broad autonomy in how it runs its business. But in the wake of this incident, the three congressional committees responsible for China, foreign affairs, and intelligence have begun examining Nvidia's internal security measures directly. They have even pressured Nvidia's board into forming an independent investigation committee to look into the company's own founder and CEO.

In effect, Washington's national security establishment has planted a watchdog right inside Nvidia's board. From now on, the goal is to make sure that everything, down to where each and every one of Nvidia's high performance chips ends up, conforms strictly to US national security strategy. It also means there is no more room for skirting the edge of the rules or releasing chips with specs specially tailored to regulatory thresholds.

Conclusion

"The scandal was a detonator set off right on cue. The real goal was to plug the holes chips were leaking through."

Jensen Huang made the fatal mistake of letting his guard down in his private life and personal relationships. In the end, he fell into a honey trap, the textbook tactic of intelligence warfare, and was compromised. America's national security and intelligence agencies ruthlessly exploited the weakness his private life had exposed. As a result, they solved three thorny problems in a single stroke: Nvidia's lobbying at the White House to ease restrictions on China, the flow of H200 chips into Chinese shell companies, and smuggling routed through Singapore.

The closed congressional hearing set for November 18 will be the decisive turning point at which the US moves in earnest to tighten its sanctions on China's AI compute even further.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Let me say out loud what I think everyone is feeling right now…

Jensen was the poster child for a CEO who didn’t get caught up in these types of controversies.

He is the last person you would think could get caught up in something like this.

When it comes to the AI revolution, he is at the center of it. Without NVIDIA, there is no AI revolution. In many respects, he has been emblematic of American capitalism over the past few years. A dishwasher at Denny’s had an idea and turned it into a $5T company.

Everyone simply thought Jensen was above these types of things.

I don’t even want this to be about a rich powerful man cheating on his wife…we have heard this story over and over again. That isn’t to normalize it as being okay, but it’s not really shocking.

However, the broader issue here is what infidelity implies about someone’s character. You can make many excuses to justify it, but we all know that infidelity is not a good thing. There is a lack of morality involved when it comes to cheating.

When you are the CEO of a $5T company, the question now emerges: if you can lie to your wife, can you also lie about other things…like China’s access to your technology?

I don’t really know what to think. My gut tells me that Jensen has acted ethically in most fronts when it comes to business, but I also know that to build a $5T company, the lines around ethics can blur easily. A framework for being able to make sense of and justify your actions is very, very important and we all simply don’t know if this affair will result in anything bad in regards to America’s national security with China.

I don’t think this is good for the stock market or the AI trade. There will now be investigations and concerns around Nvidia and Nvidia is in control of how all the semis do. I also think this story may have leaked last week and that’s part of why we saw such a massive de-risking by institutions.

I do think there is a world where the market moves beyond this, especially if the investigation doesn’t show any meaningful compromised intelligence. I also think the public will be willing to forgive Jensen, at the end of the day he is a human and infidelity has obviously been part of many marriages, much less such a high profile one.

This is just a really weird moment and not something I ever expected from Jensen. It will now be up to the market to decide how important and meaningful this is when it comes to where the AI trade goes.

[William Fitzgerald @william_fitz]

One beautiful week:

- Musk wasted half a billion on the midterms, cybertrucks are ded
- Anthropic's valuation halved, might not IPO
- Juang under investigation by Nvidia, maybe compromised
- Altman's OpenAI hammered in midterms

Chickens coming home to roost for AI robber barons

[Madison Mills @MadisonMills22]

BREAKING: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admits affair, board to launch investigation: ""I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did." https://t.co/S1ji4vcsLY

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

@tszzl what is openai worth?

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

@mert_gulsun I wonder if the AI bubble only becomes sustainable once chart B starts curving the other way

[Séb Krier @sebkrier]

Updated version!

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

Getting pretty clear that Anthropic are not the good guys

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

Anthropic thinks recursive self-improvement is dangerous but they want to do it anyways, as fast as possible.

Anthropic does not seem to me to be taking the actions necessary to start pacing, but I'm sure we will get some more 10K word essays on safety soon.

[Jason Li @genericname2134]

@JoePostingg Agree with this. Only problem is that Anthropic is would be worth something like $0.5T rather than 2T without the pricing power of frontier models.
(tbc I’d have no issues with a huge drop in valuations across the board, but investors might)

[Toby Ord @tobyordoxford]

METR has released a very interesting report suggesting a recent acceleration in AI capabilities this year at Anthropic due to RSI.
But they can't confidently reject an alternative explanation: the step change you get with the larger pre-train of Mythos.

[Richard Ngo @RichardMCNgo]

@LeRoyDesCimes same tbh

[Daniel Kokotajlo @DKokotajlo]

It is pretty rich of you to cite "others could go faster" as a reason to redact so much important information when you yourself do not appear to be slowing down much at all. Nor are you throwing yourself behind efforts to pace the frontier with nearly the gusto that you would if it was your top priority. Not to mention "commercial sensitivity" you yourself have said human extinction is a plausible outcome why are you even talking about commercial factors (well, I guess honesty is good, and since it IS apparently a factor in your decision...) To all my friends at Anthropic: Your company appears to be recklessly gambling with our lives. You fancy yourselves the more responsible alternative to OpenAI (as they fancied themselves compared to Google) but judging by actions rather than words the similarities between the three of you seem stronger than the differences.