@RunDMcD Was probably a compilation of all the injury guys
Ryan had a shoulder strain in 2024
Fried had a forearm strain
Sale has extensive injury history
@BaseballValues@gingersnaphyde@GeoffPontesBA@AramLeighton8 "In a vacuum, using only one input, a 60X hitter is slightly more valuable than a 50M pitcher, mostly because pitchers have higher injury risk than hitters."
I believe this is a direct quote
@gingersnaphyde@BaseballValues@GeoffPontesBA@AramLeighton8 Early is just a random example to prove the point. 60 extreme does not equal a 60 player. You can take any other unproven 55 player that is objectively a better prospect as well.
Caden Scarborough, Trey Gibson, and Elmer Rodriguez come to mind.
@BaseballValues@gingersnaphyde@GeoffPontesBA@AramLeighton8 Zero prospect outlets,scouts, or any other possible input you use would have Peete over Early. If your model then says Peete> Early because hitters>pitchers, it is very flawed.
@BaseballValues@gingersnaphyde@GeoffPontesBA@AramLeighton8 Injury risk is obviously included in their risk factors. Saying pitchers have more risk than hitters is lazy without looking at adj. grade.60 extreme means Tai peete has a very low chance of hitting a 60 outcome. Dsl players & injured players are all factored into the risk grade.
@gingersnaphyde@BaseballValues@GeoffPontesBA@AramLeighton8 It comes from a misunderstanding on how BA grades. Spencer Jones isn't really a 60, he's a 40 due to the risk. Connolly early is a 50, but his risk only drops him to a 45, making him a better prospect. Saying hitters> pitchers is incomplete
@BaseballValues@GeoffPontesBA@gingersnaphyde@AramLeighton8 I was referring to your comment about BA, so I used BA scouting grades. Obviously, some outlets will be lower, but some will be higher for the same price.
So, taking just BA's input, the model would have Jones higher?
@RunDMcD At the risk of contradicting the doctor, it likely would be good to link the whole study, which concluded that there is no evidence of increased risk.
https://t.co/OzeQhiiIQV.