Gen X Public Defender

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[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

Last tweet: I don’t post here anymore. Follow me on Mastodon: https://t.co/j27eHSVORI

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@JyndonBohnson @MattZeitlin Fascinating! Maybe I remember some other prediction market then! Weird: I do remember it, but it’s false.

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@matt_blackwell For those of us who are very slow, your best guess is that Black and Latino support will be more or less what it was in 2020? That's very bullish for Harris, no?

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@krazgreinetz Is the case “the other way” that a nationwide overcorrection would produce a greater error in national polling and sun belt states?

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@davidsacc12345 Given that thread, why do you feel good about the election in general?

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@billscher I thought we all concluded several cycles ago that there indeed was bad intent?

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@lxeagle17 I feel like this makes the poll results more credible: their polls were telling a story throughout the cycle, and this is such a departure from that story that it seems unlikely they’d weight their way to these results.

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@nick_field90 Are you saying they’re using different weights in the same poll? Or that they’re using idiosyncratic weights to get this split? I *want* you to be right that this a sign the polls are overstating Trump, but I don’t understand the mechanism when we’re talking about the same poll.

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@PollTracker2024 @nick_field90 Iowa erasure

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@matt_blackwell I have been following the debate over herding vs. weighting to reduce variance, but this post is over my head. Can you break it down just a little?

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@HarrisPeskin @RonBrownstein @tbonier Partisan ID does not equal candidate selection

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@nick_field90 Was it actually on camera or just in front of a pool reporter? That could make a difference….

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@nick_field90 Apart from the numbers themselves, do we have reason to think pollsters apply different weights or what-have-you for presidential and down ballot races? E.g., do we know they are weighting on recalled presidential vote for the presidential contest but not the senate contests?

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@JakeMGrumbach Hmm, did he delete it?

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@Timodc @brianbeutler @bgmasters that’s all anyone is talking: what a badass that guy is 🤷‍♂️

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

(Obviously, because Dave Matthews Band is the most Basic, normie, flyover act in existence.)

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

Dumbest tweet in the history of Twitter?

[Jason M. Shepherd 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇺🇦 @JasonShepherd]

Once again Georgia’s Democrats remind us who they really represent…NY and CA liberal elites, not the hardworking people of Georgia.🙄 #gapol

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@jedshug I love Taylor Swift, and I don’t use Facebook

[Gen X Public Defender @GenXPD]

@attorneydad A meh brief in a meh case is always the one that is stressful and time-consuming.