@matt_blackwell For those of us who are very slow, your best guess is that Black and Latino support will be more or less what it was in 2020? That's very bullish for Harris, no?
@lxeagle17 I feel like this makes the poll results more credible: their polls were telling a story throughout the cycle, and this is such a departure from that story that it seems unlikely they’d weight their way to these results.
@nick_field90 Are you saying they’re using different weights in the same poll? Or that they’re using idiosyncratic weights to get this split? I *want* you to be right that this a sign the polls are overstating Trump, but I don’t understand the mechanism when we’re talking about the same poll.
@matt_blackwell I have been following the debate over herding vs. weighting to reduce variance, but this post is over my head. Can you break it down just a little?
@nick_field90 Apart from the numbers themselves, do we have reason to think pollsters apply different weights or what-have-you for presidential and down ballot races? E.g., do we know they are weighting on recalled presidential vote for the presidential contest but not the senate contests?