Geoff Smith

30+ years of trading experience

[Geoff Smith @geoffsmith_pp]

URANIUM UNCHAINED

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Tomorrow is going to be a historic day.

Market expectations for tomorrow's Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history.

Currently, interest rate futures imply a ~30% chance of a rate hike and a ~70% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

By comparison, nearly every Fed meeting since March 2020 has entered decision day with ~99% consensus.

Adding to the uncertainty, Fed Chair Warsh has effectively eliminated forward guidance, leaving markets with little direction ahead of the announcement.

That said, we continue to believe that the Fed will NOT hike interest rates tomorrow.

It's important to not forget that just months ago, President Trump said a "pre-condition" for his next Fed Chair was a willingness to cut rates.

And, the Iran War energy shock is likely to continue being labeled as a "temporary inflationary event" rather than a structural one, the labor market is weak, and Americans are already struggling with high interest rates.

We think the Fed PAUSE continues tomorrow.

[Geoff Smith @geoffsmith_pp]

100,000% returns on APPL

Investing seems easy:

Step 1: Buy a few hundred bucks worth of a stock nobody else likes.

Step 2: Wait few years.

Step 3: Cash out at 100,000% gains.

[Geoff Smith @geoffsmith_pp]

It’s easy to look at one ugly close and decide everything’s changed.

You check your P&L, see red and start asking yourself if you should bail. I get it. That’s a normal human response. But that doesn’t make it the right trading response.

Here’s what I remind myself when the tape gets choppy: One day doesn’t make a market.

Recently, I was looking at a position sitting up around 9% to 10%. Solid gain, nothing crazy, but the kind of trade that’s working. Then the market got wobbly and the question came up — should I get out?

My answer was simple: I wouldn’t get out of it.

Not because I’m stubborn or ignoring risk, but because nothing in the fundamental thesis for that trade had changed. The daily price action?

That’s just noise until it proves otherwise.

A few rough candles can feel significant in the moment, but they don’t automatically signal that the underlying setup has deteriorated.

THE REAL ENEMY IS REACTING TO UNCERTAINTY

What makes this market tricky isn’t just volatility — it’s the constant flood of stories, headlines and spin. Every new narrative creates pressure to react, even when the price structure and fundamental thesis remain intact.

You’ve got to ask yourself: How many of these stories are actually real? I don’t think we know exactly what’s going on half the time.

The headlines shift, the narratives flip and traders get whipsawed trying to chase every new angle.

That’s why I lean on my levels and my plan. If a position is working and the setup still makes sense, a bad day or two doesn’t change the trade. It just tests your discipline.

DON’T LET ONE SESSION TALK YOU OUT OF A GOOD TRADE

The market will try to shake you out. That’s its job. Your job is to separate daily volatility from actual deterioration in your trade thesis.

If the structure breaks, fine — I’ll respect that and adjust. But if it’s just a rough session inside an intact trend, I’m not letting fear make my decisions for me.

Keep your size manageable, know the levels that would invalidate your setup and stick to your plan. Don’t let one red candle rewrite your whole strategy.

Geof Smith

[Geoff Smith @geoffsmith_pp]

The story here is that companies are beating earnings by the largest margin in recent history.

But it's clear Wall Street set their expectations way to low because they're not buying the media's 31% growth hype.

As we speak... Institutions are quietly dumping three of these tech titans while rotating into better growth plays.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

"John Thune should not allow the United States Senate to 'leave town' until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER..." - President Donald J. Trump

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices crash over -8% after the US and Iran halt strikes amid reports of new negotiations.

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇨🇴 Colombia's President-Elect announces he will cut all ties with Cuba and Nicaragua.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: U.S. companies are reportedly facing a surge in AI cyberattacks & ransomware incidents.

[Mila Joy @Milajoy]

I believe that COVID was released on purpose to STOP Trump from winning in 2020.

What do you believe?

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Google $GOOGL surpasses $4 trillion market capitalization again.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Intel $INTC erases all gains after Jim Cramer says "Intel's the one."

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Apple $AAPL reaches new all-time high of $333, surpassing $4.9 trillion market cap.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $7 trillion asset manager Fidelity "urges" Senate to pass the crypto Clarity Act.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Elon Musk says he is now a "former trillionaire."

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China warns US not to start trade wars following new tariffs.

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 United States has not carried out strikes against Iran tonight for the first time in two weeks.

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇾🇪 Chinese Supertanker turns around in the Red Sea due to Yemen's Houthi blockade.

[Geoff Smith @geoffsmith_pp]

@esq_glen66 @tedcruz The Kavanaugh hearings were indeed a low point in Senate confirmation processes. What’s your take on how those hearings changed the confirmation going forward?

[Geoff Smith @geoffsmith_pp]

@Abelfiddler Nice job

[Fox News @FoxNews]

BREAKING: President Trump issues a stark warning to Iran, declaring the U.S. is prepared to completely dismantle the country's infrastructure "in a small part of an afternoon" if a diplomatic deal cannot be reached.

"We're going to win one way or the other. We're going to make a deal or we're going to finish the job, okay. And it won't be tough to finish the job.”

“I'd rather make a deal, because I don't want to affect 91 million people. We can knock down their bridges in one hour. We can knock out their energy supply.”

“We can knock out their electricity and power generating plants. And I would say in a small part of an afternoon, every plant will be gone. And they know that."